@cantkeepawayforever
The issue seems to me that we are getting exactly the figures expected as downturn in the pandemic turns into an upturn.
Cases are the first thing to go up, in terms of timing.
Given the typical pattern of the disease, hospitalisations of those infected individuals won't happen for another 10 days or so, and the deaths not for a little while after that. So the hospital admissions going down is a relic of the cases going down weeks ago, while we won't see the upturn in hospital admissions due to today's cases reflected in the figures for some time.
The other issue is about who is being infected. At the moment, the rise in infections is typically amongst younger people than were tested during the peak (who were only those admitted to hospital). In terms of the graphs from the start of the pandemic, today's cases amongst younger people would be invisible and not represented at all. It is only when those younger people infect the older and more vulnerable people (who are typically being more cautious so will be infected at home by younger people they are linked to) that we will see a rise in hospitalisations.
Thus I don't see the rise in cases along with a fall in hospitalisations reassuring at all - I see it as meaning that we are due some really nasty figures in a month or so's time.
I think I’ll follow the stats and deal with what’s happening now rather than predicting stuff no body has any idea over. The hospitals admissions have continued to fall through out the pandemic even after spikes up and down the country. Even when we see good news people are still saying ‘oh no give it a month cos it’s gonna get nasty’ - that never happened at Easter, when beaches were packed out, shoppers queuing for primark, raves, riots... it didn’t happen then!
Testing has gone up so cases have!
The way the PHE are gathering evidence is awful - it basically checks to see who has ever had COVID then keeps checking to see if any one is dead. If they are it goes down as a COVID death - regardless if you recovered and three weeks later you get run over by car. The way the PHE are recording stats you can never recover from COVID. Even if you have.
The way the Gov have dealt with the figures is criminal. It is leaving people to think we are in much much more danger that what we are. It’s also causing elderly people in nursing homes to not receive treatment for bog standard stuff or even see their families. It’s an absolute disgrace!
I could post a million graphs on here showing you that actually were not about to go in to a second wave, we’re doing well - but you wouldn’t believe it as honestly I think some people are enjoying the misery of it.