Is the virus less dangerous now?

[Dannn]

Huge increase in cases in countries like Spain and Belgium yet no additional deaths. Has the virus downgraded? People are not getting as sick as before.

It’s more likely to be because it’s younger healthier people getting infected so less likely to die. Vulnerable people are still being cautious.

How many people die of flu in summer?

Respiratory viruses are seasonal and attenuate in summer. This video explains one theory why they do so.

Wouldn’t make any assumptions about this virus until we’ve lived with it through a winter.

or is it affecting a younger demographic that can cope with it better? And there are better treatments for it that didn't exist before

No - it's increasing amongst young people who are less likely to need to be hospitalised.

Agree with above - apparently younger people are getting it now, so are far less likely to die.

In the UK, death rates have halved for those in ICU with the virus. We're definitely far more informed about how to treat it. Eg the huge emphasis on ventilators at the beginning, when actually now we're realising that they can do more harm than good, and non-invasive treatments are preferred.

Spain figures also include positive for the antibody too so some of the "new" cases are actually old cases that weren't picked up before possibly if they were asymptomatic

Thanks for the discussion, all interesting points. I agree the spread does seem to be amongst younger people but literally no increase in deaths - surely some of there’s younger people will be infecting older family members etc.

Interesting point about death rates halving for ICU patients but I’m sure some of that is due to being able to provide proper care to patients now which wasn’t possible in April/May etc due to lack of resources and staff. Those presenting in ICU are not as sick as they were during the peak.

here is one thing I would like to bring up (even though its not mentioned)- re comparison to 1918 flu epidemic - we have far better medical knowledge equipment (oxygen support/supply in all its forms, kidney dialysis for instance ) & medication. at least 3 times the number of dead have had some form of hospital/intensive support they (& perhaps more would have died at that time.
As to the death rate & better chances because of younger population - what we don't know (unless someone has figures?) is how many people have had severe illness ie hospitalised & (sadly) how many might progressively get worse - it can take several weeks for someone who is affected - dies. That mat sound morbid but that is the way it is. We all need to be careful

I understand the point about more younger people getting it now but I think it's more nuanced than that- it must be younger people getting it and not passing it on to older people, as opposed to Feb/March where they caught it and spread it. It has never made sense to me how back in the spring all the Covid cases I knew were amongst older people with very few social interactions when younger friends/colleagues who were heavily socialising and commuting didn't seem to have it. We can only assume that large numbers of them actually they did have it then (asymptomatic) and spread it to the more vulnerable and it was only at that point we all noticed and it became the big pandemic it was. So another reason for reduced death rates now could be that sadly a good number of the most susceptible people have already battled it or died from it.

Maybe the younger people are mixing more and getting it, but with more access to testing, more likely that the case is reported. But their grandparents are keeping up with social distancing, so protecting themselves from their grandchildren.

Plus better treatments - that's a big factor in death rates. And remember how early on there were posts about people ringing 111 and being told not to go in until their lips were blue? Maybe serious cases are getting admitted sooner because not so many of them, which also improves outcome.

Younger people are getting it far more - not social distancing.

Older people are being much more careful.

There's less pressure on the NHS at the moment because it's summer.

There is a huge increase in 15-64yo getting the virus and nearly any 85+ and far less in the 65+ age group.

As it's the 65+ age group most at risk this will affect the statistics.

We may also find as numbers of people positive increases and deaths decrease the fatality rate is also modified.

However shielded people have been released and so we need to continue watching case/age/death statistics.

Plus many of those who died were very old and frail and had co morbidities and so maybe would have died within next few years anyway.

People can only die once. We need to also watch this winters respiratory death rate and assuming pandemic will be over within a year from now the subsequent 5 year average after that.

There's so many variables and all data can be presented in various ways to show what the author wants it to.

There isn't any epidemiology data currently to show there is any decrease in the virus strength. There have been studies into the fact they think there's a few mutations and these do carry differing fatality rates but I haven't yet seen any peer reviewed definitive answers to this.

But we also know virus' tend not to want to kill their host immediately because they rely on them to keep them alive and spreading. So mutating isn't necessarily unheard of - just I don't think so far there's nah evidence Covid has done this.

Not when other known variables explain the death rate.

Confusing.. how are more younger people getting it now and weren’t getting it before? Is it down to more testing? If so, that opens up far more questions.
Are younger people really getting it more? If “nearly” 50% of new cases are from those under 30 (headlines and figures I’ve seen) then more than half of people testing positive are older than that.
Have we now got a better understanding and treatment? Has it run it’s course? Was it here longer than initially thought? Is this in fact the second wave?
Are the deaths and hospitalisation cases lagging so far behind the confirmed positive cases that it skews the figures this much?
So, so many questions that I don’t think will ever be answered until historians look into this years from now

The elderly and vulnerable are still isolated. Young people are socialising lots more than at the start lockdown and taking less precautions.
The majority of teenagers around here are back to normal flocking together.

I would love to think it’s getting milder but agree with PP - we need to see how the winter is before taking chances.

Outside transmission must equal less viral load and if people aren’t then visiting vulnerable to protect them, numbers will be less. And cases less severe due to the demographic catching it.

I want to see caution as we go into Autumn and start closing windows and turning on heating because if we have a lot of low viral load / asymptomatic carriers start spreading it, things could change quick.

I really hope the government listens / union ballots teachers / parents vote with feet so that numbers in classrooms can increase with more caution complete with appropriate social distancing / masks etc.

@LeggyLinda

Confusing.. how are more younger people getting it now and weren’t getting it before? Is it down to more testing? If so, that opens up far more questions. Are younger people really getting it more? If “nearly” 50% of new cases are from those under 30 (headlines and figures I’ve seen) then more than half of people testing positive are older than that. Have we now got a better understanding and treatment? Has it run it’s course? Was it here longer than initially thought? Is this in fact the second wave? Are the deaths and hospitalisation cases lagging so far behind the confirmed positive cases that it skews the figures this much? So, so many questions that I don’t think will ever be answered until historians look into this years from now

I don't think it's more as in numbers - but rather more as in the percentage of people.

Back at peak there were 4/5k positives a day from gov site. Estimations were much higher.

But obviously when lockdown happened young people also couldn't go out for that period. So their numbers also dropped. Unis shut, many WFH or were furloughed.

They were first to start meeting up and also the group mostly meeting indoors in various households.

It's more that less people from risk groups have been exposed

The decrease in the death rate seems very positive. Linked to better treatments, less vulnerable populations and seasonality
www.bbc.com/news/health-53192532

Confusing.. how are more younger people getting it now and weren’t getting it before?

because since lockdown was relaxed, they are completely ignoring the rules on social distancing - hanging out together in large groups of mixed households, hugging each other, having parties, sleepovers, etc, etc, etc.

I've been thinking this too . I'm in scotland so following the Aberdeen outbreak/cluster, there are a high number of cases linked to this via test and protect (our test and trace system). These are people who will be getting told to test due to being in the pub where it started/family members of those who were but I'm wondering wether these people are otherwise asymptomatic and wouldn't have been tested if it weren't for being contacted.

Were being told new cases daily but not how many of these are asymptomatic or mild.

Confusing.. how are more younger people getting it now and weren’t getting it before? Is it down to more testing? If so, that opens up far more questions.

Much more testing now... You had to need hospitalisation to get tested in March and April.

It might not be a huge factor but we mostly all have higher vitamin d than did in March and it is meant to have a definite effect on how people cope with the virus. It seems very important for the immune system in general

Confusing.. how are more younger people getting it now and weren’t getting it before?

because since lockdown was relaxed, they are completely ignoring the rules on social distancing - hanging out together in large groups of mixed households, hugging each other, having parties, sleepovers, etc, etc, etc.

Genuinely interested to hear you say that (and you’re probably right as I’ve heard so many others say the same). But around my way the opposite is true - the older generation are more guilty of flouting the rules and meeting up in groups. Youngsters are the ones in masks and social distancing.
Different areas, different attitudes I suppose

Less in the environment.
Imagine the bus driver in mar. Lots of infected people on bus. Same for passengers and nhs staff. Even in homes people in feb and mar stuck inside with ill people with no ventilation.
Vit d.
I wonder what % have started supplements. All those on the beaches.

Also they said it survives for only short time in sunlight. So less on surfaces now.

People catching from housemates or people in the office would get more ill if they are in there all day.
SD makes that difference.
But also you get more ill if you have multiple viruses which is less likely now.

This has been observed in other countries as well. A doctor in Italy reported on it a couple of months ago. The virus itself hasn't become less dangerous though, it's just that we have already adapted to it to some extent.
Obviously the next big test will be the reopening of schools, then we will have to protect the carehome community and others who are vulnerable as we move into winter.