If we hadn't had lockdown - what would life look like now?

[GrumpiestOldWoman]

On MN there are voices saying that the lockdown was an overreaction and advocating a much lighter touch. What do you think life would look like for you now if we hadn't locked down?

I think I would have been taking a lot more funerals.

My DSises, BIL and neighbour who are medics would be exhausted and traumatised.

It’s quite likely that local services would have stuttered, e.g. rubbish collection.

Two people I know who recently started cancer treatment may not have done, because there would literally be no room for them in the hospitals or staff to treat them.

My mother would not have been able to have the cardiac procedure she had in June and would still be getting sicker rather than walking her dogs and enjoying life.

sebastianrushworth.com/2020/08/04/how-bad-is-covid-really-a-swedish-doctors-perspective/

As per this article shared by another poster on this board (sorry can't tag)

It's impossible to tell really, because people would have started to restrict their own movements as much as possible, out of fear.

@askmehowiknow

https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/08/04/how-bad-is-covid-really-a-swedish-doctors-perspective/

As per this article shared by another poster on this board (sorry can't tag)

Interesting! Makes a lot of sense to me.

people would have started to restrict their own movements as much as possible, out of fear

Which is what happened in Sweden. Shops were closing due to lack of footfall.

I don’t think it would be good. We’d have had a lot more deaths and services wouldn’t have gone ahead due to sickness/self isolating, teachers would have been called out on strike so schools would have had to close anyway

Plus yeah, as people had stopped socialising and were wfh before lockdown that would have continued too

There may have been a lot more common sense. People thinking for themselves about the risks of certain situations

So by now people would have a much clearer picture of what is actually going on and not relying on the media doom and gloom

I think if there wasnt rules saying you shall not people wouldn't have gone nuts as lockdown was lifted

I also think families would have looked out for one another and made sure those at risk were protected

Instead of being forced apart and all the heartbreak that goes with that.. Therefore we would be happier now

@SengaStrawberry

I don’t think it would be good. We’d have had a lot more deaths and services wouldn’t have gone ahead due to sickness/self isolating, teachers would have been called out on strike so schools would have had to close anyway

Called out on strike? You really have no idea how unions work, do you? And you imagine that teaching unions have far more power than they do. But well done for getting a little anti-union, anti-teacher dig in there.

@askmehowiknow

https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/08/04/how-bad-is-covid-really-a-swedish-doctors-perspective/

As per this article shared by another poster on this board (sorry can't tag)

.... Infection rates are heavily dependent on population density

Even within the UK, the ONS data shows that densely populated conurbations have 5-6 x the death rate of sparsely populated areas

So we have to look at groups of similar countries:

• Sweden vs its Scandi / Nordic neigbours who have similar v low population density & culture

• The UK and other densely populated countries like Italy, France, Spain, Germany

Sweden has 5 -12 x the deaths / million of its neighbours

Before lockdown, the UK was following Italy's curves

Deaths / Million population

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

568 Sweden
47 Norway
106 Denmark

680 UK
581 Italy
110 Germany (an anomaly due to Merkel's v early lockdown & v effective public health services)
849 Belgium

# People / km2

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Listoffcountriesandddependenciesbyypopulationdensity

23 Sweden
17 Norway
135 Denmark

280 UK
200 Italy
233 Germany
376 Belgium

@CarrieBlue I don’t know where you got that from or that I’m anti union? As it is, I know one hell of a lot about TUs, given what I do for a job. I don’t think it’s at all unreasonable or unexpected that if schools/workplaces were dangerous that any unionised workplace would ballot for strike action amongst its members, which I would consider justified and would support. So take your snark and fuck off.

@askmehowiknow

https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/08/04/how-bad-is-covid-really-a-swedish-doctors-perspective/

As per this article shared by another poster on this board (sorry can't tag)

Interesting article

Nobody knows. Nobody could possibly know.

@BigChocFrenzy I don't understand your point.

The question was what it would have been like without lockdown. Yes Sweden has a higher death rate than neighbouring countries. So it's a good example.

As for population density increasing infection rates. That's obvious. London and Stockholm I believe have roughly similar. And both approaching herd immunity. Yay!

So comparing Sweden to its Scandi neighbours, it looks like not locking down can result in many times the deaths there would otherwise have been

What would have happened if Italy hadn't locked down ? N Italy was being overwhelmed.
The UK was following Italy's curves, so I think many times higher than UK deaths with lockdown

Sweden's central bank predict about the same loss in GDP for 2020 as its neighbours and Germany
So having 5-12 x deaths / million of those countries didn't help the economy

Sweden gained some important intangibles:
greater personal freedom; the state didn't increase its power

However, if the UK had suffered multiples of its current deaths, I'd be worried about oppressive laws,
as well as the NHS being overwhelmed

The trouble with comparing ourselves to other countries Is that Sweden is a country of approx 10 million in 173,000 square miles. New Zealand has approx 5 million in 103,000 square miles.

We are a country of 68 million In 93,000 square miles. We are very overcrowded and physically packed much more densely than many, many other countries. Our transmission is therefore far harder to control. This isn’t a governmental failing (i’m not saying there haven’t been many) it’s just the nature of the problem is very different and much harder to surmount.

@SengaStrawberry ‘called out on strike’ has a totally different implication to ‘ballot for strike action’ as you well intended. Take your own advice.

[quote askmehowiknow]@BigChocFrenzy I don't understand your point.

The question was what it would have been like without lockdown. Yes Sweden has a higher death rate than neighbouring countries. So it's a good example.

As for population density increasing infection rates. That's obvious. London and Stockholm I believe have roughly similar. And both approaching herd immunity. Yay![/quote]
...
The question is comparing similar countries that locked down / didn't lock down
That's looking back in the past

Not locking down means Sweden had 5-12 x deaths / million of its very similar neighbours

==> It's highly that the UK would have several times more deaths than it had

What happens now is a totally different point:

Both the UK and Sweden have about 7% antibodies in serology studies, but Sweden still has the advantage of v low population density, about 1/12 of the UK

So I'd expect Sweden to do pretty well now
but the UK will have to work much harder to achieve similar results

The % required for "Herd immunity" may well be lower in a sparsely populated country like Sweden,
than it is a highly populated country like the UK

We have no evidence that the UK is near herd immunity

even though I suspect Sweden may be

No but I believe Stockholm and London are approaching herd immunity.

Both very densely populated

Lucky for them!!

London is 8 million out of 67 million in the UK
and millions of people go in and out of London

There may have been a lot more common sense. People thinking for themselves about the risks of certain situations

Nope. If there is one thing this crisis has demonstrated, it is that there is not enough common sense and far too much selfishness still in our society.

The question in the OP would be what would life be like if we hadn't locked down

My opinion was that deaths would be several times higher
==> I'd exect panic
==> NHS totally overwhelmed
==> draconian government powers and laws to keep control

A different question - which you seem to want - is where are we now

• and we in a much much better situation than before:

• Scientists know far more about COVID, so can target measures to stop spread

• Doctors know far more about how to treat it, so death rates are lower
  (also much younger people are being infected as the old are protected)

• The UK has track & trace systems and mass testing

and of course very promising news about the Oxford vaccine 👍
and several other vaccines in the pipeline

@BigChocFrenzy

The question in the OP would be what would life be like if we hadn't locked down

My opinion was that deaths would be several times higher
==> I'd exect panic
==> NHS totally overwhelmed
==> draconian government powers and laws to keep control

A different question - which you seem to want - is where are we now

• and we in a much much better situation than before:

• Scientists know far more about COVID, so can target measures to stop spread

• Doctors know far more about how to treat it, so death rates are lower
  (also much younger people are being infected as the old are protected)

• The UK has track & trace systems and mass testing

Well that's great you have an opinion

But we could just look at what actually happened in Sweden