Number of cases in March

[Realitea]

In March, how many cases do you think were in the uk?
Have there been any studies to suggest what the number might have been?

Anyone?

I had read somewhere that before lockdown there was estimated to be 100000 new infections a day and cases doubling every few days. Can’t remember where I saw that though and of course there wasn’t much testing

I don’t think they know do they? It’s a disgrace because really without that information in my view it’s basically impossible to know how to compare to the situation right now.

For example if we are getting approx 800 cases a day right now, how did that compare to in March? Presumably it would have been several thousand a day?

In March daily tests were 10k a day? And cases approx 900 per day confirmed at peak?

So now those tests are 163k a day with same number of cases it really does make it scary speculation to what cases were per day in March.

We can't possibly know because they weren't testing. There are people who think they might have had it but weren't tested. And people who don't know they've had it because their symptoms weren't the classic three.

Since in general it takes a while to incubate, make you ill, make you ill enough to need hospitalisation and then make you ill enough to kill you, the 40-odd thousand excess deaths in April would have been infected in March and are about 1% so a very (very!) rough guess of the 99% who had it but didn't die would be 4 million.

Thanks everyone. That is a huge amount. And to think we were all taking the children to school, going to work, as normal etc. Yet still there weren't huge outbreaks in loads of schools in March. (Unless I'm wrong) I don't remember there being any in the press. Probably because there was no testing.

There was no testing so I guess nothing to report. In my 1.5 form intake primary school 6 members of staff became ill the week before lockdown started. No one ill enough to require hospital treatment, but all bad. I was being monitored by the oncall via phone and I have never felt so bad. Oncall convinced I had it, lungs not been the same since and my heart sometimes feels like a bird in a cage.

We had a few other staff members with less symptoms but also sure they had it.

Not one of us would count towards the number of infections as tests just weren’t being done.

Many people at my daughter's school also think they have it. I'm pretty sure my daughter had it too. I remember the teacher telling me how awful she felt, three weeks before lockdown. She was still teaching but looked really unwell. I wonder if it's already been through the school. Maybe it's been through most schools.

@itsgettingweird

In March daily tests were 10k a day? And cases approx 900 per day confirmed at peak?

So now those tests are 163k a day with same number of cases it really does make it scary speculation to what cases were per day in March.

no, must have been far higher, as there were over a thousand deaths a day through out his time

I think outbreaks in schools in March would have been very difficult to detect due to children on the whole not getting poorly enough to be hospitalised and therefore tested.

At my school we had some parents in hospital with confirmed cases and many children off with coughs and temps. I’m sure some of those were off as their parents were worried and wanted to keep them at home, but it’s reasonable to think the virus was circulating at school given some parents were hospitalised.

@Realitea

Many people at my daughter's school also think they have it. I'm pretty sure my daughter had it too. I remember the teacher telling me how awful she felt, three weeks before lockdown. She was still teaching but looked really unwell. I wonder if it's already been through the school. Maybe it's been through most schools.

doesn't matter if it has or it hasn't as antibodies don't seem to last more than a couple of months

@Realitea

Thanks everyone. That is a huge amount. And to think we were all taking the children to school, going to work, as normal etc. Yet still there weren't huge outbreaks in loads of schools in March. (Unless I'm wrong) I don't remember there being any in the press. Probably because there was no testing.

How would we know without test and trace? Hardly anyone knows who they caught it from back then.

@itsgettingweird

In March daily tests were 10k a day? And cases approx 900 per day confirmed at peak?

So now those tests are 163k a day with same number of cases it really does make it scary speculation to what cases were per day in March.

There were up to 1445 deaths a day in the peak month of April so daily cases would have been vastly more if only 1% of cases results in death. 99 x more.

@mosquitofeast very true. Doesn't really matter I guess if there's no lasting immunity.

no, must have been far higher, as there were over a thousand deaths a day through out his time

The highest deaths numbers were in April. The week leading up to Easter Sunday (April 12th) At one point that week, about the 8th, there was a death every 2 minutes

OP
It's hard to calculate how many infections in March, because only people in hospital were being tested.

Nobody will ever know, because until well into March, the govt was still going on about well, everything it's now changed its mind on.
The only answer could be "a hell of a lot more than we were led to believe"

Nobody will ever know, because until well into March, the govt was still going on about well, everything it's now changed its mind on

Sorry I'm finding it a bit hard to read your post but it was March when the government really started to lockdown on everything and many of those restrictions are still in place. The virus was already the leading story on every news channel.

1st March gov bring back retired NHS staff
5th first UK death
11th Sunak budget giving huge spending on covid related issues
15th over 70s to self isolate
16th avoid non essential travel
19th announce pubs, gyms, restaurants, cinemas to close
23rd strict lockdown in place

Exactly.

23rd March. A lockdown lite is instigated. After weeks of the govt telling people (basically) to not catch Covid but by washing your hands whilst singing happy birthday you'd be OK. And "some of us are going to lose loved ones" but "I shook the hands of Covid patients" was coming out of the mouth of the person supposedly running the show.

The Worried About Covid thread (active from early Jan iirc) and the (later) numbers threads had a better grip on the situation.

23rd March. A lockdown lite is instigated.

It wasnt a lite lockdown and other measures had been in place from the 1st of the month

After weeks of the govt telling people (basically) to not catch Covid but by washing your hands whilst singing happy birthday you'd be OK.

No it was more than that

And "some of us are going to lose loved ones" but "I shook the hands of Covid patients" was coming out of the mouth of the person supposedly running the show.

Nope

The Worried About Covid thread (active from early Jan iirc) and the (later) numbers threads had a better grip on the situation

I was on those threads too, but hindsight is a wonderful thing isn't it?

The Zoe covid project has a graphic showing user reported symptoms from late March to the end of May. The end of March hovered around an estimated 2 million dropping to an estimated 1 million through April.

covid.joinzoe.com/data

We’ll never really know but as time goes on very good estimates will be able to be calculated.

If my memory serves me right we got Boris’s ‘people are going to die - wash your hands’ speech at the same time news was coming out of Italy about the tragic scenes of them trying to cope with covid. It would have been around 09/03 because that’s the week I stopped sending dd to preschool. Things changed very rapidly after that going from stay at home for seven days for a fever/cough to the whole house isolating for fourteen days within a week (I know because this is what we did). By the time I went back to work we were in lockdown.

@Flaxmeadow, there were five deaths before the government made what was supposed to be the first public. But some doctors have claimed more. So six people had died and there was mounting pressure from the medical and scientific community to act, when Johnston joked about shaking hands with Covid patients.

We watched Europe's death rate rise and did nothing. It's now, at last, being said that it was the wrong thing to do, to let immigration, tourism, the sporting stuff etc shouldn't have happened.

It's got nothing to do with hindsight. The Government chose to ignore the crisis.

I think he actually said "I am still shaking hands with people" "I am washing my hands frequently" "There are covid patients in this hospital". I keep seeing people trot this out as saying "I am shaking hands with covid patients"

I am more than happy to be corrected, but I don't remember that he actually said he was shaking hands with diagnosed covid patients.

People also remember him as having visited his mother on Mother's Day, in fact it was a Skype call.

BTW certainly no love for Boris here, but I think people sometimes remember things selectively.

"I think there were a few coronavirus patients and I shook hands with everybody, you will be pleased to know, and I continue to shake hands,”

The shaking hands quote (YouTube coverage of the interview)