Is anyone going from quite chilled about schools reopening to being nervous/frightened?

[Nosebogey]

My ds has been at school throughout lockdown in a small bubble. It took a lot for me to send him because I was scared but his mh was suffering badly so I put that first even though I found it very hard. He was in a bubble of around ten kids and the bubbles were kept really separated (apart from drop off and pick up which was a bit close for comfort).

Now though, I’m starting to get very frightened about September. Our school is doing what they can with having class bubbles and one way systems (including an exit route that is also been designated an entrance for some children so not such a one way system) but I’m still scared.

Pubs round here are packed. These adults will go home and be around their children. Their children will be crammed into classrooms with other children. Parks are absolutely chock full of families atm all playing together etc. So adults are mixing and children are mixing outside of school but magically social distancing inside school will stop infection? Parents send sick kids in all the time. Why would they suddenly stop doing that for coronavirus symptoms? Won’t they just decide “it’s just a cold” and send them in anyway?

I don’t know. I just feel like the closer September comes, the more scared I get. Is anyone feeling the same?

This stuff is very affecting but hardly relevant, there is not going to be some magic bullet. This is not going away and we cant put young people's lives on hold forever.
They need to go back to school!

The government is trying to wing it. It won’t work unfortunately.

Close the pubs now. Close the clothes shops, restaurants etc now. Stop the garden parties etc. Enforce the two weeks quarantine properly or else close the airports. Secondary schools, at least, may require at minimum a couple of weeks of facemasks in classrooms to assess things again mid September.

Less than the above and a year of uninterrupted schooling is just fantasy I fear. Sadly, I fully expect this government to fail miserably.

@Billyjoearmstrong

“They need to go back to school!”

Saying it 100 times won’t make it true. There will be no school if UK deaths are rocketing to 200,000 before Christmas. If kids are to go back and stay back in September we need strong government that will make the right decisions, no matter how hard, at the right time. Unfortunately we don’t have one.

there is not going to be some magic bullet

Well, there sort of is, and it is called a strong and effective tracing and testing regime with quarantine for those who are infected.

Look at the numbers and graphs in this study: www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30250-9/fulltext#seccestitle80

With an adequate tracing regime in place which can get a high percentage of those traced tested and quarantined (if necessary), there will be no second wave as a consequence and schools will be able to continue to operate. Without sufficient scale up in testing and continuing with the testing rate we have now, we get a second wave in December (with full time reopening) or February (with rotas for children who attend week on week off) that is potentially more than twice as large as the last. It will not, according to this study, be reopening schools that causes a problem but the lack of an efficient trace and test set up. We don't have an efficient tracing and testing system.

The graphs I've attached show the first wave and what is likely to happen subsequently with three different testing percentages in place. The worst scenario in this study corresponds to the current testing numbers. If the wave is 2 to 2.3 times as big as the last, this means potentially another 100,000 deaths.

I've read it closely and it seems reasonable to me. I would be VERY happy to hear any input from actual scientists who are able to assess the robustness of the study.

But the wrong people are panicking.

As a medical professional, who do you think 'should' be panicking? @CoffeeRunner

(Genuine question, would appreciate your perspective)

Column: Trump’s right, schools must reopen. We just need kids to promise they won’t get the coronavirus.
www.chicagotribune.com/columns/rex-huppke/ct-coronavirus-schools-trump-open-teachers-covid-class-huppke-20200805-24ybrhq6abei3dge4eienpfcoa-story.html

I read this column and thought of this thread...

Yes very nervous and anxious that they won't open. Children can't afford to miss this much education in a recession. Imagine the health impact of that long term!

@HoldMyLobster that's exactly part of the problem.
The US is in a hugely different place right now in terms of numbers and trajectory, plus the reopening of schools has become highly politicised. The huge discord there has then spilled over to the UK - so instead of focussing on the countries in Asia and Scandinavia, for example, that HAVE reopened schools without spikes, and agitating for things like proper test and trace that would make a huge difference, you've got half the posters on this thread suggesting that anything bar home education is murder.

[quote Stuckforthefourthtime]@HoldMyLobster that's exactly part of the problem.
The US is in a hugely different place right now in terms of numbers and trajectory, plus the reopening of schools has become highly politicised. The huge discord there has then spilled over to the UK - so instead of focussing on the countries in Asia and Scandinavia, for example, that HAVE reopened schools without spikes, and agitating for things like proper test and trace that would make a huge difference, you've got half the posters on this thread suggesting that anything bar home education is murder.[/quote]
This is rather hyperbolic, I think most parents would be happy with small groups and social distancing.

But we haven't got that, we've got 'chuck them all in, don't give a shit if it spreads'.

I just was responding to this bit btw: you've got half the posters on this thread suggesting that anything bar home education is murder. should have cropped.

Yes scared. Very.

Ds has been shielding until now. It does not feel safe enough to send him back. School are doing their best, but there will be no social distancing..and to be honest, apart from bare walls and tape all over the floor it will be nearly the same as when he left in March.

And it is frankly awful that our choices are -
Send in.
Deregister
Keep off and get fined

@Castoreum
Thanks for sharing that. I think the study really shows in black and white the implications of schools opening in September unless the Government manages to increase significantly testing and tracing.
Basically we'll be hit with a huge wave by December, far bigger than the first. For anyone attacking teachers, I think they have every right to have their concerns listened to, this study, if accurate confirms everything they've said. Instead, we should be aiming our anger at the government who have still not managed to get an effective test and track system in place. Perhaps Dodi wasn't the one for the job?

This report was published this week and I, for one, am interested to see whether they plough on with full opening and inadequate testing and tracing regardless.

I’m worried about it. I think this government is a shit show and have proved themselves to be incompetent on so many levels. They seem to be make wholly arbitrary decisions. How can I believe that their decision making regarding schools is sensible? It doesn’t feel that way to me. The minute a child coughs in class or is off with a cold, panic- mode will ensue. Schools, as everyone knows, are breeding grounds for germs. I’ve never been so ill as I have since I sent my child to school. Bugs galore. For those of us shielding or in the slightly older bracket, it’s a huge worry.

My DH is responsible for preparing the school and making it Covid safe and the stress he has been under since March is unbelievable. Between the lengthy but vague government guidelines and the basic logistics of school life the simple truth is that schools can’t do very much except isolate year bubbles - at our kids’ schools that will be 180.

That’s 180 kids travelling on public transport every day, mixing with other people then peers, teachers and their families too. Schools can’t magic up more sinks nor time in the day for hand washing. They don’t have spare rooms or dining areas etc to spread everyone out either. Masks apparently won’t be allowed!

Transmission will be rife and disruption will be immense once cases start appearing and partial closures become inevitable.

I must admit as someone who works in a school my concern isn't only about the virus itself but about how things are managed and how staff will be supported going forward, particularly if things do get worse again, which seems a realistic possibility.

We have very little guidance and limited resources. When I went back at the beginning of June after WFH I felt that measures were pretty good, but in the six weeks between then and the end of term, they were gradually eroded. More staff in, rules relaxed, general complacency.

I can envisage more of the same in September, and the fact that staff will be under extraordinary levels of stress will probably make many of the more vulnerable to illness.

I'm not suggesting that schools shouldn't open. My own DD is in her final GCSE year and needs to be there, but I don't believe for one minute the practical and wellbeing support that school staff need will be remotely adequate.

I’m just nervous and anxious that they won’t actually open.

@purplerain2020 It is a sobering read, isn't it?

@MayFayre I would strongly urge you to read the link I posted above. Opening schools will result in a huge second wave and they probably won't remain open for long, and 100,000 people are likely to die (based on previous death rates).

@Castoreum I haven’t analyzed the credibility of the paper, and I’m not a modeller, however it does make scientific sense.

lower number of cases + effective test and trace = being able to reopen schools with less risk of increased community transmission

So if we stagger going back, which I think is sensible, then we keep numbers of cases lower for longer whilst we ramp up test and trace.

Test and trace is very, very important. If the numbers are low, we don’t have to have such a good test or trace to be effective. But as the numbers rise, we have to really be very fast and very thorough in order to ‘stay ahead’. Does that make sense?

South Korea has an excellent test and trace, and even they staggered their schools and close them if the numbers get too high in the area.

I think about them not opening and feel a bit ill.

@MarshaBradyo

I think about them not opening and feel a bit ill.

Me too. I have been working out of the home the whole way through this pandemic with my young teen homeschooling himself and home alone for much of it. I will send him to school five days a week as a keyworker child if he can't go back properly in September. I don't feel I have a choice as I am worried about his mental health.

No I am not worried about them opening. I AM worried that hysterical and ill informed parents will make it impossible to open.
Covid is not a threat to child health. A lack of education is.
Covid is not a serious threat to the majority of adults either. We really need to get matters in proportion. We can't live in lockdown.

@IceCreamSummer20 Thanks for commenting! I too felt it made sense. I would very much like to see that test and trace is being properly expanded before schools go back. The idea of a second wave of that size and 100,000 deaths is properly horrific. And in the event of that kind of wave, how long could they remain open anyway?

I think that's what I will have to do as a key worker myself. Although I'm not sure if there are any plans to have key worker groups in school again?!?

@pandafunfactory

No I am not worried about them opening. I AM worried that hysterical and ill informed parents will make it impossible to open. Covid is not a threat to child health. A lack of education is. Covid is not a serious threat to the majority of adults either. We really need to get matters in proportion. We can't live in lockdown.

To the people who see it this ⬆️ way, what's your explanation for why the government continues to deploy restrictions?

Why would all these governments, do it, if not they think it better than the alternative?

Covid is not a threat to child health
Really! Blimey, I wish you'd told me back in March when ds's paediatrician told us he needed to shield...that woukd have saved us months of staying in. I feel like a right chump now!