Will the pandemic ever be declared over

[mummabear1967]

This Covid nightmare just feels as though it’s going to be like this forever and that we’re gonna be going constantly between lockdown and out of lockdown forever and that we will all be social distancing forever.

I was looking at the H1N1 swine flu pandemic of 2009/10, I know it wasn’t a serious as Covid-19, but it started in about April 2009 (I think) and was declared over by summer 2010. That one lasted for a year and a few months.

Can anyone see this pandemic being declared over by at least Christmas 2021? Surely all pandemics come to and end at some point? We had that pandemic ten years ago and we haven’t social distanced since (obviously up until Covid-19) so surely we can make it back to our old normal sometime in the near future?

Of course it will be over at some point, every pandemic in history has. I think they usually last a couple of years.

If the government have their way, no it won't.

Well the HIV / AIDS pandemic is still going...

@Faircastle

Well the HIV / AIDS pandemic is still going...

I don’t understand that. You wouldn’t think it’s a pandemic because it’s not constantly on the news and we aren’t social distancing for HIV and aids and we aren’t in lockdown over it so how is it still a pandemic

Coronaviruses reinfect people. We don’t know how long immunity will last for this one. The pandemic will be declared over at some point, probably when there’s an effective vaccine or treatment.

On good days, I like to assume that, because all the news on the vaccination studies is looking positive so far, the government are banking on one being ready and available close to the end of this year, so they'll be able to start rolling that out.

In the meantime, they're presumably trying not to get different groups too angry, so they're telling everyone that everything is fine, although it's also not, and that school will work out, and so will the economy, just to bide time until there is actually something to end all this.

In the meantime, they're probably also not in too much of a hurry to get the virus completely under control yet, because it's a handy excuse for any holdups due to Brexit in the new year. Delays in deliveries? Well, there is a pandemic...

It makes me frustrated though because by not giving any proper guidelines and being so confusing, they've encouraged people to take risks they shouldn't. I'd prefer it if they just shut down everything again for a few weeks, gave a citizens' income to cover it for those few weeks, and got the numbers right down so that schools could go back safely, even just for a short time, or part-time.

In 2019, nearly 700,000 people died of AIDS-related illness.
it’s not constantly on the news because it's not new.
we aren’t social distancing for HIV and aids and we aren’t in lockdown over it because it spreads in a different way.

I wasn't trying to compare COVID-19 and HIV/AIDS. My comment was to point out that pandemics sometimes last for more than a year or two.

Spanish Flu lasted for two years

@Faircastle

In 2019, nearly 700,000 people died of AIDS-related illness. it’s not constantly on the news because it's not new. we aren’t social distancing for HIV and aids and we aren’t in lockdown over it because it spreads in a different way.

I wasn't trying to compare COVID-19 and HIV/AIDS. My comment was to point out that pandemics sometimes last for more than a year or two.

I’ve just realised what I said there about why we aren’t in lockdown - yes it does spread in a different way - sorry that was a blonde moment! 🤦‍♀️

In the event that this Covid pandemic does last more than a year, do you believe we will be social distancing and having all these lockdowns for that length of time?

Yes it will. Also it might be under control here but still a pandemic

In the event that this Covid pandemic does last more than a year, do you believe we will be social distancing and having all these lockdowns for that length of time?

I know people bang on about it, but the country can't afford it, the unemployment statistics would be beyond frightening.

I just would love to know when we can go back to our old normal - this will happen, right? This “new normal” won’t be here forever?

It's not over until no one ever gets Covid. You can die of other things if you like though. As long as it's not Covid. That's the main thing.

@mummabear1967

I just would love to know when we can go back to our old normal - this will happen, right? This “new normal” won’t be here forever?

No one can really say. A lot depends on how soon the vaccines in development pass trials, and how quickly an effective mass vaccination programme can be carried out. Personally I'm thinking of a 6 month timeline.

I really do think it will be at least a year if not longer before we get back to normal - and even then it is likely to be a new normal. This has been waiting to happen for a long time.

@mummabear1967

I just would love to know when we can go back to our old normal - this will happen, right? This “new normal” won’t be here forever?

There’s currently several vaccines in large-scale trials, more coming down the pipeline. Three of the ones in Phase III trials at the moment have said they should have proof on whether or not they work before the end of the year. And they’re all being manufactured at huge scale now, so that they’re ready to go as soon as possible.

We can’t guarantee they will work (although with several different vaccines in trials odds are fairly good at this point), and probably they’ll just be authorised for high-risk people at first, and we can’t know exactly when they’ll have enough data to go ahead to that. But we know it’s all looking pretty promising so far.

So no this isn’t going to go on forever, not even close. We’ll get our lives back.

I don’t understand that. You wouldn’t think it’s a pandemic because it’s not constantly on the news and we aren’t social distancing for HIV and aids and we aren’t in lockdown over it so how is it still a pandemic

Because it's not a new illness (HIV can be treated to an extent) and it's not airborne. The risks aren't the same.

Could you not say cold and flu are pandemics then?

'What is the definition of a pandemic?

A pandemic is defined as “an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people”. The classical definition includes nothing about population immunity, virology or disease severity.

By this definition, pandemics can be said to occur annually in each of the temperate southern and northern hemispheres, given that seasonal epidemics cross international boundaries and affect a large number of people. However, seasonal epidemics are not considered pandemics.'

Copied from WHO.
Don't know if that helps. I'm also confused.

@Faircastle

I think it’s not on the news because it mostly affects the African continent and it seems that in the western world, they are not very important because hundreds of thousands are still dying of treatable illnesses. If Covid was 95% in Africa it would be the same. Doubt it would even be mentioned on the news by now.

@Cloudyroom unfortunately I think you're right. The numbers dying from TB, malaria and measles every year are already shocking, and are likely to become even worse due to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic reducing access to vaccines / treatment.

Coronavirus isn't remotely comparable to HIV/AIDS.

Malaria = approx 500,000 deaths per year.
TB = approx 1.5 million deaths per year.

But TB disproportionately kills poorer people in poorer countries, so isn't seen as "newsworthy".

You don't need to social distance to prevent HIV spread. You could live your entire life in the same house with an HIV+ person & never contract it. It's not a valid comparison to coronavirus!