So the PM is talking about second waves

[Regulus]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53566043

If Boris is conceding second waves in Europe surely he must see that with the plans we have for September that we will have one as well?

He is aware of the possibility of a second wave, he addressed it last week.

The headline says ‘second wave’

The story says that Boris talks about an ‘outbreak’

The BBC - like lots of people - are conflating one with the other

There will be outbreaks, there may even be ripples but that doesn’t necessarily mean they are waves

Lots of places are planning for disruptions. Where I work, we are basically saying we do X until the 2nd wave, and then we do y. There are even models that forecast when is coming...

What drives me crazy is what are the schools doing? People want kid in schools, but if they are sent home every time they cough, is surely better to have most of education ongoing online (like unis) and just some activities face to face?

The Scottish schools are due to go back on the 11th Aug - only 2 weeks or so away so maybe will see what they do...Ireland also in Aug I think,

@Lua how will that work for parents who can't work from home? I can't and I'm a single parent so quitting my job isn't an option. I know school isn't childcare but I don't know how I'm supposed to work otherwise.

@Waxonwaxoff0 I don't know, butthere are two issues. Child care and child education. The best answer depends on which is more important to you. At high school level, I would say keeping up with education is more important. Id education is being delivered face to face and lots of disruptions are expected to arise, it is better to provide the barebones of education online and use face time for add-ons, in my opinion. That way kids don't get isolated left and right without education.

Online learning could be more feasible for secondary pupils as they require less parental supervision but I don't think it's a good alternative for primary school.

"The headline says ‘second wave’

The story says that Boris talks about an ‘outbreak’

The BBC - like lots of people - are conflating one with the other."

The story quotes him directly and he use exactly those words:
"Let's be absolutely clear about what's happening in Europe: Amongst some of our European friends, I'm afraid you are starting to see in some places the signs of a second wave of the pandemic."

Doesn't mean he is correct (most epidemiologists are referring to them as outbreaks, but Boris did use the term).

Today the WHO said there won’t be waves, but rises and dips here and there

To be fair he is justifying the advice re Spanish travel in light of criticism from the Spanish pm. Only time will tell if this is a contained outbreak or a second wave (and I agree with the quarantine and advice in that caution is a good idea here!) but let’s not pretend boris was talking from a scientific viewpoint today this was purely political postering in light of the criticism.

He’s only acknowledging the risk of one, that’s hardly ‘news’, he (and Sage etc) have long said they’re taking the action they’re taking (lockdown, gradual easing, local lockdowns etc) to avoid it:

Both DSs have been told by the universities they work for to carry on working from home for the indefinite future to see out the second wave,

Every time I see this title I read it as BoJo 'talking about second wives'.

What do you think of this, 'effective elimination' how will they manage this and schools opening etc as they have predicted that certain activities keep the "R" below one...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-53566212

The virus isn't going to magically disappear, it's a bit silly to think it will. People have started to travel more now, no matter what, so the virus will circulate for a long time. Outbreaks here, outbreaks there, wherever. So a lot of disruption,unhappiness and misery and hassle for many people still.

I think Nicola S is being a bit unrealistic and / or needs to explain how she actually wants to achieve this...and maybe say what she thinks about supporting the more vulnerable perhaps.

Even New Zealand has not eliminated it completely and getting a few cases, as is Iceland, and they are remote low density islands.