What if there's Not a second wave

[ButWhatiftheresNot]

Genuine question. I see so many posts about a second wave, some of which, to be honest, contain some very strident views predicting massive further deaths, lockdowns, nothing being normal ever again, Christmas is cancelled, you get the drift. It is almost as if some people are using this to bring out their inner domineering side - It WILL come, you MUSTN'T do that, etc.

But what if there's not a second wave, just local spikes and local lockdowns, like Leicester. All those predicting major doom and gloom, how will you feel about that? Relieved? Disappointed because you feel you've lost control and can't shout at others?

Just that really.

I wonder if this was a second wave.

Why has the strange idea come from, this mythical first wave that hit us with no impact on he NHS with excess deaths below normal over winter, and all this with no social distancing.... Makes zero sense.

@lifesalongsong agree completely.

I agree @ButWhatiftheresNot there are people positively salivating over the prospect and predicting doom and disaster usually with a healthy dose of judgment over their fellow citizens who will clearly be to blame for not obeying exactly as the doom merchants decree they must.

Spain had 100 more new cases than the UK (if I've understood the Guardian table) yesterday, so while it's cause for concern (and I think every country is going to be immediately more cautious from now on) we're hardly talking Madrid in March.

The news coming out of Spain is concerning? They seem to definitely be beginning a second wave. Surely if they are, we will? Willing to be corrected on this

It seems the track and trace did not work well in certain areas, and they didn't really do a local lockdown and trace contacts...whereas we have local lockdown plans in place here so hopefully things may work better in a more localised way.

I'd be thrilled! I have everything crossed that there will soon be a vaccine. So many people have died. It's awful.

I never understand the accusations and insults hurled at people who are worried about this issue. Thread after thread of sneering. It isn't scaremongering to be scared. People aren't happy that others are dying. They aren't excited about another lockdown. People are simply worried and its understandable that people would be fearful when the governments of the world decided that wrecking their economies was a better option than business as usual!

I think the pp who said prepare for the worst but hope for the best is right, nobody can predict what will happen over the next couple of months, infection rates will go up, saying that is realistic but I don’t think it’s doom mongering.
It’s a case of wait and see.
I don’t think there will be another national lockdown, lots of local lockdowns and school closures in the winter. A lot of it depends on our behaviour.
I would love to know what the Governments behind the scenes plans are for the coming months.

@hotstepper4

The news coming out of Spain is concerning? They seem to definitely be beginning a second wave. Surely if they are, we will? Willing to be corrected on this

It’s not a ‘second wave’. Like here, the vast majority of areas have very very few cases. Some areas (like Catalonia) are failing dismally at track and trace, leading to a small spike in cases which they are now getting on top of. Since the reintroduction of local lockdown measures (which we always knew was going to be necessary to control the pandemic), cases are starting to fall again. We will also have local spikes, which will hopefully be controlled by targeted measures. Again, we always knew that was going to be necessary.

There are a lot of people who are very certain of a second huge wave.

I think the OP is trying to work out what motivates them. I wonder this, too.

Of course we should be preparing for the worst though... how fucking stupid would we look as a country if there was a big spike in cases over the winter and the NHS said ‘oh we didn’t see that coming so we didn’t do any prep’? Scenario planning is, of course, very important.

@MorningManiacMusic

Spain had 100 more new cases than the UK (if I've understood the Guardian table) yesterday, so while it's cause for concern (and I think every country is going to be immediately more cautious from now on) we're hardly talking Madrid in March.

But Spain also has a population 10 million people lower than U.K.

So 100 more cases in 20 mil people less.

Context is always key

@MorningManiacMusic

I get what you're saying OP. I imagine of there's not a second wave the "life will never be the same again" MN hand-wringers will move on to some other doom and gloom scenario.

I think the scientists are predicting as long as people continue to be careful and obviously as long as vaccines etc work that localised spikes will continue for a while but a whole new blanket contagion is unlikely.

yes, they will move on and start banging on about brexit instead and how the country will collapse,

No one can predict the future, know one knows how this is going to pan out. All we can do is prepare for one and hope there isn’t one. All we can ALL do is follow the rules, something lots on MN are incapable of doing from seeing all the posts about can I just do .... and the use of ‘common sense’

'hope for the best - prepare for the worst'.
^
This

Exactly this.

I don’t think anyone wants a second wave
I don’t want one, but I predict one. There’s a difference.
I guess ‘hope for the best, but prepare for the worst’.

@CountessFrog

There are a lot of people who are very certain of a second huge wave.

I think the OP is trying to work out what motivates them. I wonder this, too.

those doomsday fruit loop types who predict riotting hoardes prowling the streets looking for food and supplies as society breaks down a la '28 days' loved that film !

Which would be worse ?

Some people being disappointed if we manage to keep things under control or lots dying if it comes again and we are not prepared again.

I agree op, some posters really seem to be relishing the situation and although they wouldn't admit it, I think it suits them. Usually people with not much of a social life, etc, people who never went out much. They are glad the rest of us might have to live like them. I'm not being horrible bit it really seems that way on here.

The regional disparity in cases might be a concern here as seems mainly in poorer areas and if those areas have more closed will impact the economy and mental health etc as well..hope we do not have too many of these and it is just pockets...might create quite a divide if some areas open and others not. Just now seems to be a bit of a north / south divide..

That way of thinking was mentioned in in interview recently I was listening to with Louis Theroux, it was about the mother of the actress (the queen in alice) anyway her mother has chronic illness and was enjoying lockdown, as suddenly everyone had to live like her! Can't remember her name now..

I wonder if this was a second wave.

How did the first wave magically disappear if this is the second?

Far more likely that the first wave started sooner than we think and took longer to reach the peak spread in March.

I know exactly what you mean op. Most people are quite normal, trying to balance risk and being sensible, and as keeps being said, hope for the best, prepare for the worst. On here I have come across a number of posters who are so extreme in their views it’s quite scary. Reopen schools and all the teachers will die. Go closer than 2 meters to someone and they will be in hospital by next week. Dare to think positive or take pleasure in some good news and santa will also catch Covid and then no children will get any presents at Christmas. There could be a vaccine by the end of the year? Don’t be so ridiculous, THERE CAN NEVER BE A VACCINE FOR A CORONAVIRUS.

Some of these posters do appear to take great delight in bad news and seem determined to bring everyone else down with them. And I too get the sense that whether they will admit to it or not, they will be a little disappointed if we make it through to next spring without a major disaster. I’m not saying they wish people dead, but it is a certain mindset you see, of people ridiculing others (which goes both ways to be fair) and being sooo adamant that they know best, that so many people are disobeying the rules, that there will be huge increases after VE Day, after crowded beaches, after pubs open..... They enjoy the drama and will be disappointed if there is nothing to be dramatic about.

Personally my view is I am sure we will see a rise in cases, there will be local lockdowns, we will manage these at least semi effectively and we will just bump our way through winter. I am hopeful for continued improvement in treatment and certainly do not think we will see deaths returning to the same levels even if cases rise again. A vaccine by late 2020 or early 2021 would be amazing but we shall see.

Why is everyone bashing OP? So nasty!

@Coldspringharbour

I wonder if this was a second wave.

Not this again, the mythical first wave that passed undetected, what exactly makes you think that?

How do you explain the lack of excess deaths, the strange disappearance and then a re-appearance that suddenly was noticed and started to kill people. Maybe then we will have a third wave like the first one - a benign one, we could all go for that

the first wave magically disappear

@Kazzyhoward did you miss the lockdown?