Sweden

[Mummabeary]

Something which has been bothering me for a few weeks now and I wondered what thoughts are on here and if I have missed something.
When I look at Sweden's coronavirus strategy, it seems like a positive to me. Essentially we are all becoming Sweden now - hospitality sector open, schools to be open, working from home where possible but some offices reopening. And although their deaths at peak were significantly higher than their neighbours that locked down, they didn't experience the dire forecasts of numbers dying that were predicted and their epidemic slowed itself right down with no lockdown and just social distancing measures. So whilst obviously from a human point of view the losses of life are tragic, if we purely look at the country's actions as a scientific experiment, it really is quite encouraging in terms of how the virus spreads. With some small measures in place it did not take off exponentially, we didn't see months and months of deaths going up and up and up. Something has slowed it down quite quickly. I know the country has a general low population density compared to us but it does have a couple of well populated cities. With the headlines tonight of how Covid will be endemic now and here for years, should we not be looking at Sweden as a good news story?

Worldometer deaths

I read that people isolated and avoided bars and shops to really quite a large degree even without a formal lockdown. I’m not sure that would have happened here in the same circumstances.

@Blackcurrant66
Do you know if they are still doing that or just at the peak? I'm interested as it's been 3 months now and as per the graph the deaths are still falling.

At the time people on here were explaining how different Sweden is to the UK - much smaller population in a much bigger country so people not living so packed together, more natural social distancing normally as more people work from home, schools very different to the UK in their strategy for dealing with Covid.

Completely different culture.

Huge country in terms of land mass not a huge population, one of the biggest second home owner countries in the world.

Swedish constitution prevents the government declaring an emergency and freedom of movement is a fundamental right.

www.healtheuropa.eu/swedens-response-to-covid-19-life-is-not-carrying-on-as-normal/101515/

Looking at their reported cases, the 7-day average suddenly drops right down at the end of June, it’s very odd compared to other countries, I wonder what’s happened there.

I remember reading that the ‘no lockdown’ doesn’t represent what really happened there.

You can’t compare them to us in any case, better to compare to their close neighbours where they look much much worse. We had such a high infection rate in the U.K. in early March too, so what happened in sweden isn’t what would have happened in U.K.

How does Sweden have a "hugely different culture" to the UK? I grew up in both (middle class areas) and find them very similar

The "second home ownership" is the sommarstuga ...like a cabin that you go to IN SUMMER...not something that is going to impact on viral spread in March, which looking at the death peak is when people were cAtching the virus.

Also, please read this:

http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/nordiccomparisonn_4jul.html

Even with the shit show in florida etc.. The state have now got the R rate down to 1... They have managed to do that with very little restrictions.. Although clearly not the right way to go about it. It has to be seen as a positive the the R rate can get to 1 or below while life still goes on.

Yes, Sweden's been very successful. Death rate per million is far less than ours. Maybe PHE know why the Swedish strategy wouldn't work here? I think the public is at least owed an explanation if they're to carry on with this ruinous social distancing.

@Forgone90

Lockdown enabled the R to fall well below 1 and for infections to plummet from 100,000+ per day at the peak to 2-3,000 now (I’m referring to estimated daily infections, not confirmed cases). If we had only levelled the curve and kept the R at or just below 1 in March/April (and kept new infections level at 100,000 or so per day, our deaths would likely be well into six figures by now. If Florida can’t get it’s R well below 1, it’s going to be hell over there.

Yes, Sweden's been very successful. Death rate per million is far less than ours.

I wouldn't say far less. We're 4th in the world with 669/million currently, they're 7th with 559/million.
Out of 215 countries the I'd say that's less, but not far less.

@HalfPastThree

Sweden contained its outbreak (and the death rate per head of population) isn’t far behind the UK’s because it’s population did largely socially distance, albeit without an mandated lockdown.

Would that have worked in the U.K.? Perhaps, but given our society, I think mandating was required - too many would have disregarded “advice” and our position was too precarious with infections doubling every few days to persist with a light touch approach. It would have been playing Russian Roulette with the population as we crossed our fingers and hoped that simple advice would have been enough - the price for getting that judgment wrong back in March could have been 100,000s of lives. No responsible Government could have done that. It’s easy to criticise with hindsight.

Yes, Sweden's been very successful.

It really hasn't.

Not economically, either.

And it seems quite psychopathic to compare Sweden's figures with its neighbors and use that word.

@Witchend

Yes, Sweden's been very successful. Death rate per million is far less than ours.

I wouldn't say far less. We're 4th in the world with 669/million currently, they're 7th with 559/million.
Out of 215 countries the I'd say that's less, but not far less.

Yes, I think I was remembering the excess deaths, which was 538/m for Sweden vs 988/m for the UK. Difference in Covid registered deaths is less as you say, though we've still managed to do worse somehow

It’s easy to criticise with hindsight.

Agree, but our public health policy now should be based on the information we have now, not the information we had in March

# People / km2

280 UK
23 Sweden
17 Norway
135 Denmark
233 Germany

Covid deaths / million:

669 UK
559 Sweden
47 Norway
105 Denmark
110 Germany

• Sweden without lockdown has 5 x deaths / million of Denmark

• and Germany despite Germany having 10 x the pop density

• The UK, with higher population density, would probably also have had multiples of current deaths without lockdown.

The UK death curves followed Italy, not low population density Scandinavia

• and what would Italy have been like without lockdown ?

• Sweden has about the same fall in GDP as its neighbours - and Germany

Mumma, Swedes on the whole are taking social distancing very seriously. Many business and venues have closed their doors temporarily or are operating on much reduced opening hours or capped customer numbers, despite there having been no formal instruction to this effect. Many regular events such as evening classes, dances or cultural gatherings are temporarily stopped, as are local attractions. My friends and family have been reducing social contact since April. My relative has cancelled his summer wedding. Most seem motivated by a sense of social conscience, and are pissed off when individuals are spotted not heeding advice on hygiene measures and social distancing, just like here.

@HalfPastThree

Agree, but our public health policy now should be based on the information we have now, not the information we had in March

But as @WarmthAndDepth stated, Swedes have, and are continuing to, practice “this ruinous social distancing” (to use your words) so I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make.

we've still managed to do worse somehow

Largely because we took action as a country once Covid had got more of a foot hold. Infections were doubling every few days prior to any actions being taken, so a few days made all the difference.

Thanks for all the points you've made. It's an interesting case and quite complicated. I guess I just get confused as I've been following their figures since late March waiting for disaster and although they had a care home issue like us, in the community it seemingly hasn't happened. But whenever the MSM report on the country's approach it is very negatively.
They didnt just seem to get R to 1, looking at the stats they seem to have brought it far below 1 and kept it there such that they only have a handful of deaths per day now like us. This bodes well I think for life for us going forward. I agree we needed the lockdown at the time but we need to get on with a cautious life now and I think evidence from Sweden builds my confidence in the possibility of this.

They didnt just seem to get R to 1, looking at the stats they seem to have brought it far below 1 and kept it there such that they only have a handful of deaths per day now like us. This bodes well I think for life for us going forward. I agree we needed the lockdown at the time but we need to get on with a cautious life now and I think evidence from Sweden builds my confidence in the possibility of this.

Agree with this... We don’t need a hard lockdown to keep a lid on Covid.

I have some friends and acquaintances who have disappeared down the rabbit hole of covid conspiracies, all of whom cite Sweden as an example of why we've all been 'had' in one way or another. They also refer scornfully to 'MSM'. Yet most who look at Sweden in an attempt to support their own plandemic agenda (not saying you've got one of those) are not able to access Swedish media reporting, the government's daily briefing or general chat on Swedish language social media, so are basing their opinions on the offerings of people who, for their own reasons, are taking to alternative media such as YouTube to share content in English. It's hardy a subjective picture. My nephew works in the ICU in one of Stockholm's hospitals, and his experience is that, just like here, whereas most cases are the elderly or already compromised by underlying health conditions, there have still been cases of young, healthy individuals admitted to his ICU, many for prolonged periods and developing serious complications. The stats are good at the moment though, but national epidemiologist Anders Tegnell credits the social distancing and hygiege measures taken by the people, urging the population to keep it up, as well as the weather being unusually warm for a long period, and people choosing to spend time outdoors (vast, isolated, open spaces) as opposed to riskier environments such as shopping centres or indoor attractions. The government has also been urging caution for all kinds of communal travel. The idea that the Swedish government has just 'trusted' the people without imposing restrictions is misleading; there have been very strong recommendations throughout.

You may find this interesting. More or less is about the only info I trust - despite it being the BBC. They seem to think that it wasn’t such a good idea. They thought track and trace Would work but the high numbers of asymptomatic people means that hasn’t been effective apparently. podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/more-or-less-behind-the-stats/id267300884?i=1000484332184