Are we being tricked into thinking deaths are being wrongly recorded as corona?

[Cherryghost]

Feel like there has been a shift from that deaths have been underestimated at the start and for about 7 weeks into lockdown and most people assumed there were a lot more deaths than stated.

This turned out to be true down to the figures not counting care home deaths.

Now the consensus seems to be that the deaths /cases are over stated and there is to be a enquiry as to how the deaths are recorded by Tory govt.
I can't be the only one thinking the Tories are spinning this for 2 reasons.

1. get people out spending thinking it's safe the numbers were over estimated.

2. damage limitation so they don't appear accountable for the high death rate and handled it the worst in Europe.

I think any over count will be minimal and it’s yet another distraction from the utter shitshow the government have made and are still making of their Covid response.

No.

Hancock did overegg this issue. The number miscounted will be minuscule (You only have to compare with ons data to realise that) but he acted like it was 10,000 Over or something. It’s not.

People are dying from strokes and heart attacks etc after seemingly recovering from COVID because of the clots it causes. This is well known. Sure there’ll be a few that phe added incorrectly but not many in a few months.

The UK counted deaths “with” the virus (If you die of a stroke at 90, but corona was found in your blood, corona will be noted as the cause of death)

Other countries , like Germany, counted only those people who died “of” the virus ( If you die of a stroke at 90, but corona was found in your blood, the stroke will be noted as the cause of death)

A subtle but significant difference, and why the UK stars look so bad

The over count will become a higher proportion as time goes on. And even if nobody ever catches the virus again you would still have deaths going on for decades if they continue to use the existing methodology, which is plainly nonsense.

And it's why deaths in England are flatlining while those in Scotland have fallen to near zero.

Remember people in nursing homes live for about 8 months on average, even without Coronavirus. And that's where half of all deaths have been.

Remember people in nursing homes live for about 8 months on average, even without Coronavirus. Where did you get this stat from? It's far less than figures I've seen, for example the source below which gives a figure of over two years.

www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2017-09-05/8937

Ah! Mumsnet.

When the miscount was defintitely under reporting we were all doomed, the government were lying to cover up all sorts of horrors, but mainly we were all doomed.

Now? The figures are shown to include deaths that may not be connected to CV19 at all and, nah! The number will be miniscule, we are being misled, it's spin, ot's a conspiracy, they want us all dead!!

The reality is, a many posters are still patiently explaining, that the figures will be adjusted. Not now, but later, once a lot of parameters have been decided, globaly. Then ALL governments will adjust their figures and the differences will be ameliorated.

Oh! The number of additional deaths is not 'a few' it is a significant figure. It is a known issue, it won't stand... unless, like in some American states, there is a reason behind it that will become clear in the fullness of time!

www.cebm.net/covid-19/why-no-one-can-ever-recover-from-covid-19-in-england-a-statistical-anomaly/

Deaths have been over estimated, especially in Care Homes, where the doctor can give a cause of death over the phone without even seeing the deceased. (see Corona virus Act 2020).
Deaths of those WITH coronavirus are included as well as deaths of those OF coronavirus.
Now we have the fact that the PHE have admitted that those who have recovered from coronavirus and later died of something else, are also included.
As a 'notifiable' illness, doctors are advised to err on the side of saying 'possible' covid.
Hence over recording of deaths everywhere.

Deaths have been over estimated, especially in Care Homes, where the doctor can give a cause of death over the phone without even seeing the deceased. (see Corona virus Act 2020).

So the figures for the normal causes of care home deaths will be massively down in the stats - are they? How large is the deficit of stroke/heart disease/dementia etc. ?

They haven't counted all deaths as Covid even if Covid was present at the time of death.

My nana died at the start of June. She had Covid at the time of death. However her death certificate does not mention it at all.

Dh is a probate solicitor and knows of this being the case for a number of his elderly clients - certainly from about mid May onwards.

No tricks, just different ways of recording by different countries.

It’s becoming clear that Covid is a multi system disease that can result in a range of complications including heart attacks, strokes and diabetes, so someone could die after having Covid of one of those complications and their death would still be as a result of having had Covid ie if they hadn’t caught Covid, they would still be alive. I think that the best thing to do is to go with the judgement of the doctor completing the death certificate.

The figures are issued and recorded by government for their own Agenda.
Many of the figures reported were people dying "with" not "of" corona.
Have they manipulated the figures of death by flu, too?

The methodology issue affects only PHE reporting, not ONS figures or others which look at excess mortality.

The Institite and Faculty of Actuaries have assessed that any overreporting by PHE based on their method (which may include some non-Covid deaths in those previously diagnosed with Covid) is likely to be more than compensated for in PHE’s own figures by the deaths of those undiagnosed but who in fact had Covid - particularly early on, when testing was very limited.

Correction: it wasn’t the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries who looked at this, it was the COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group.

Here is their bulletin of 19 July.

*They haven't counted all deaths as Covid even if Covid was present at the time of death.

My nana died at the start of June. She had Covid at the time of death. However her death certificate does not mention it at all.

Dh is a probate solicitor and knows of this being the case for a number of his elderly clients - certainly from about mid May onwards.*

PHE were counting them if there's a positive test even if Covid is not mentioned on the death certificate.

Spain changed the way they recorded covid deaths mid lockdown and all of a sudden, as a country, they had none yet individual areas had reported some. I think there will be a lot of anomalies and we will probably never know the truth. My father had cancer in both lungs and had one of them removed. The remaining lung filled with fluid and he drowned/died (this was in the 60s). His death certificate quoted emphysema as cause of death - there was no mention of cancer at all.

This actually happened to someone I know. Her dad had terminal cancer, was given months to live before lockdown. Died peaceful at home as and when expected. Recorded as Covid. He was never even tested.

Agree @Cherryghost

I don't think we can know for sure until we let the dust settle and give proper consideration to the best way to count. All countries have been doing it their own ways and it's understandable that in a never before crisis situation there are going to things that weren't done in the best way.

I've read an estimate, I can't remember where, that they level of overcounting is likely to be low - hundreds rather then thousands, time will tell

The death certificate can have several causes of death; a doctor does not just have to choose one. My mum’s listed three causes: sepsis, acute kidney injury, and pulmonary oedema.

Particularly early on in the crisis, doctors could list Covid as a cause of death if the symptoms fit because it was so difficult to get testing for all patients, particularly those that died at home.

Well we know what the excess deaths are, so the rest doesn't really matter does it? What would be interesting is to eventually understand exactly how many were caused by covid directly and how many by government policy. Then there are future reductions in life expectancy caused by childhood obesity etc, lockdown mental health issues, preventable deaths from delays in treatments/diagnosis, etc etc etc.

Of course the great unknown is how many would have died without intervention - as it seems as many will die prematurely from policy than covid. Worth it?

@Fayrazzled

The death certificate can have several causes of death; a doctor does not just have to choose one. My mum’s listed three causes: sepsis, acute kidney injury, and pulmonary oedema.

My Mum's listed macular degeneration which just shows how reliable a death certificate can be.

Particularly early on in the crisis, doctors could list Covid as a cause of death if the symptoms fit because it was so difficult to get testing for all patients, particularly those that died at home.

And I don’t believe these are recorded in the official stats.

There’ll be some overcounting and some undercounting, but many people seem far too eager to use any reports of this either to peddle conspiracy theories, or blow the reports out of all proportion to justify their position.

It seems that some people with Covid may have died at a later point once they had recovered... Firstly, their deaths may nonetheless be, at least in part, due to Covid complications, and secondly, the number of such deaths almost certainly won’t make a meaningful difference to the position...whether there are 42,000 or 45,000 (or whatever the number may be) Covid deaths, doesn’t have any bearing over the reasonableness of policy decisions or our appreciation of the risks.