Study: primary schools may not spread COVID

[commentatorz]

Via bloomberg:
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-19/covid-s-spread-in-schools-is-questioned-in-latest-nordic-study

From the article:

Indicative data show there is no difference in the overall incidence of the laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 cases in children aged 1 to 19 years in the two countries (Sweden/Finland); contact tracings in primary schools in Finland found hardly any evidence of children infecting others, according to the working paper by the Public Health Agency of Sweden and the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare. What’s more, there’s no increased risk for teachers, according to a Swedish comparison of cases among daycare and primary school staff, compared with risk levels in other professions.

When it comes to curtailing covid spread, it's probably much more effective to close dating apps than primary education.

Yes, but then why not also c and p the sobering cautionary note about older students and Israel in the same article?

There's a thread running at the moment with strong data from the South Korea study pointing to increased transmission from children, threatening what was for many a comforting narrative.

I'm wondering if there is a misprint in the article, it says 1 - 19 year old children, but then refers the rest of the time to studies done in primary school? Primary to me is 11 and under, is it different in Sweden and Finland, also refers to spread with older children (assume secondary age) in Israel. I guess the 19 is wrong?

The situation in Israel is very different, with a worse outbreak in society, but also bigger classes in schools and smaller rooms,”

So probably comparable to the schools in the UK, with kids crammed in to small classrooms.

The Nordic primary schools are still in groups of 10 or less aren't they.

I think what it means is they have the same number of cases as each other in the 1-19 age group and then went on to do studies (based on contact tracing) of primary aged children.

There is a very real resistance to looking at older children and university students, presumably because no countries have had them in schooling.

This is an article on the South Korean study

www.nytimes.com/2020/07/18/health/coronavirus-children-schools.html

The set up of schools in Finland and Sweden very different to what our set up is in state UK schools. This makes it hard to say the case is the same here. Reminds me of the government retoric about not comparing death rates with different countries as it’s not like for like!

*typo rhetoric

Some people want to learn the hard way. Whenever we’ve had expectations of this virus, the reality has always turned out to be worse.

Jan: No human to human transmission.
REALITY: Human to human transmission.

Jan: It won’t travel out of China.
REALITY: It was present in many other countries in January.

Feb: It’s causes a mild disease.
REALITY: It causes serious illness and death.

Feb: Children don’t catch it.
REALITY: Children do catch it.

Feb: Healthy people aren’t affected.
REALITY: Healthy people are affected.

Mar: Mass events are safe.
REALITY: Mass events aren’t safe.

Mar: Covid is a respiratory disease.
REALITY: Covid infects every organ, lymph nodes, bone marrow, brain, central nervous system, endothelium, reproductive system.

Mar: Covid takes 14 days to recover from.
REALITY: Some people are still ill after 100+ days.

And so on and so on. Nothing about this virus has been better than we expected, so it’s surprising to see some people continuing to cling to blind optimism.

Schools are vectors for transmission. You can choose to accept that fact now, or be forced to accept it in February 2021 when tens of thousands more have died. Sorry to be blunt, but that’s the only choice you face. Anything else is just a comforting illusion.

You're so right @ClimbDad and have listed the exact reasons mine won't be back.

If schools weren't kept closed for decades of polio, I don't see why they would be for covid. The profound lasting damage would outweigh any benefit.

Also in the same article

"But some countries have had dangerous outcomes when reopening schools, albeit for older children. In Israel, bringing students back to the classroom accelerated the spread of Covid-19 among middle and high-school students."

So actually the literature is still mixed and uncertain. It also isn't reflective of the school environment in the UK as Sweden/Finland have very different school environments, much smaller spread out classes, spend more time outside, more opportunity to focus on hygiene and hand washing. They aren't particularly comparable to the UK, and that's before considering population density..

@Barbie222 where is the Korean thread please?

Read this:

www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/from-toorak-to-drysdale-a-dozen-schools-closed-as-covid-19-spreads-20200720-p55drg.html

You see, why are British schools never compared to Aussie schools? As far as I can tell they're closer in terms of numbers and systems used... though I note still smaller class sizes at around 20-24.

(So not closer in numbers! Didn't edit after a google!)

Australian schools are closing for a deep clean after one case. No such thing will happen here so Joanna Public will continue to believe all is well, presumably until it's their own child's school. At which point, they will either panic, or accuse the school of hysterical over reaction, going by MN.

You see, why are British schools never compared to Aussie schools? As far as I can tell they're closer in terms of numbers and systems used... though I note still smaller class sizes at around 20-24

Spot on. In Victoria, classes are pegged at 25 and if they go over the teacher has to be compensated, e.g. no covers, TOIL. My largest class this year was 26 and I was duly compensated, other classes are 20, 20 and 15.

I think it's safe to say since every study directly contradicts another one, no one has a clue what's going on

@NeurotrashWarrior I'm sure you've found it by now but here's the link to the main study quoted:

go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/10/20-1315_article

My school was built in the 1800s and was never meant for 31 per class. Small windows no room, we have to squeeze past all the tightly packed desks. It cannot be compared to other countries with only 10 children sitting SD with masks. I really hope children don't transmit it easily or its going to be horrible this winter.