Vallance-commissioned report has second-wave info

[labyrinthloafer]

This latest report commissioned by Patrick Vallance has some scenarios around a second wave. The 120k figure is a worst case if we don't take more steps.

I think this confirms the government is expecting a second wave and is going to try to get the public to expect one too, and act accordingly. So presumably we're going to get a real mic of 'get out and spend' plus 'take care' which will feel quite stressy.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/14/action-to-stop-winter-covid-19-second-wave-in-uk-must-start-now

Here is the link to the source and the report. I see it is widely reported acmedsci.ac.uk/more/news/prepare-now-for-a-winter-covid-19-peak-warns-academy-of-medical-sciences

I read that repost this morning in on Sky news. Makes me think that that is is one of the reasons why face masks are now being made mandatory, even though infections are declining (I'm in Scotland, and our rates are exceptionally low), to help keep infections low.

I think 'preparing for' is more accurate than 'expecting'. No one knows what will happen next. This model uses possible scenarios, but as viruses are so unpredictable (eg a new mutation can easily occur and could be more or less deadly than the previous one) none of us know which of the scenarios will turn out to be the most accurate.

Of course it's sensible to be prepared for a worst case scenario and have contingency plans in place, and to encourage mask wearing and other good habits.

Fingers crossed they get preparations right.

I read the report now, some of the toughest bits to read are that things raised as issues back in Feb/Mar are clearly not improved. For example the report says Nightingale hospitals hard to use due to the fact they can't be staffed.

Interesting section at the end including views of people with serious conditions.

My view is 'preparing for' Vs 'expecting' is a semantic debate of little meaning, we will have to prepare for what we reasonably expect could happen.

"The report notes there is a high degree of uncertainty about how the COVID-19 epidemic will evolve in the UK over the coming months, but suggests a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ to prepare for is one where the average number of people that one infected person will pass the virus on to (Rt value) rises to 1.7 from September 2020 onwards."

Well what did they expect re staffing, you can't train nurses in 3 months nor doctors.

#reasonable worst-case scenario’ is obviously something the authorities must plan for

but
it is NOT a forecast

and they have calculated a very wide bandwidth of possible outcomes,
with best case as few as 1,300 deaths

So, winter is likely to be somewhere between the 2 possible extremes

I find it so sad what a negative attitude we all have. People (individuals and news outlets) are so keen to share this 120,000 worst case scenario.
Nobody is saying "if we continue doing well, the study predicts only 1,300 deaths which is a very small number. Isnt that good news?"

The govt has been (quite rightly) slated for being unprepared for this pandemic in the first place. So now they're making forecasts and planning for the next stage which might or might not happen. Nobody knows what will happen yet but planning for the worst case scenario has got to be a good thing hasn't it?

@FrugiFan

I find it so sad what a negative attitude we all have. People (individuals and news outlets) are so keen to share this 120,000 worst case scenario. Nobody is saying "if we continue doing well, the study predicts only 1,300 deaths which is a very small number. Isnt that good news?"

I'm giving a to people criticising others for being 'negative'.

The first wave was awful. The deaths were not evenly spread but apparently some secondaries expect to welcome up to FORTY bereaved children back in September. In a single school!

Yes, after the shitshow of the first wav, psychologically it makes sense for people to prepare for more. Not everyone believes in fairies.

I find it so sad what a negative attitude we all have. People (individuals and news outlets) are so keen to share this 120,000 worst case scenario.
Nobody is saying "if we continue doing well, the study predicts only 1,300 deaths which is a very small number. Isnt that good news?"

Indeed. And so much resistance about wearing masks.

@labyrinthloafer I agree, we should prepare/expect the worse while hoping we get the best as a result. We were caught out on the first wave, the government’s priority should be that not happening again. I can understand the need for positivity and enjoying this respite but we need voices like yours shouting about what could happen if we aren’t proactive.

In March R0 was around 4. I'm fascinated by their optimism at keeping it down to 1.7 once we are into Autumn/winter.

Boris Johnson’s performance at PMQs today was troubling. He wouldn’t confirm that the government would be implementing the recommendations of the report and when asked by Kier Starmer if he’d read it replied that he was “aware” of the report. Does that mean no?

Well yes we cant know how we would have done if gov hadnt gone for herd immunity.
Allowing the football and Cheltenham.

@raviolidreaming

*I find it so sad what a negative attitude we all have. People (individuals and news outlets) are so keen to share this 120,000 worst case scenario. Nobody is saying "if we continue doing well, the study predicts only 1,300 deaths which is a very small number. Isnt that good news?"*

Indeed. And so much resistance about wearing masks.

Yep, we can probably make quite a difference to what happens in winter
by keeping to the rules now, wearing masks, SD etc

A bad outcome is not inevitable
We have some control over what happens

@EmilyDickinson

Boris Johnson’s performance at PMQs today was troubling. He wouldn’t confirm that the government would be implementing the recommendations of the report and when asked by Kier Starmer if he’d read it replied that he was “aware” of the report. Does that mean no?

Johnson apparently doesn't like to read long reports so assume someone else will have read and summarised. He is not what you'd call a hard worker, apparently. Ideal for getting us through a complex crisis

@Keepdistance

Well yes we cant know how we would have done if gov hadnt gone for herd immunity. Allowing the football and Cheltenham.

We can have some confidence from modelling that had they locked down a week earlier, we'd have had 20k fewer deaths. The number is so mind boggling! 20,000 people. www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52995064

Johnson apparently doesn't like to read long reports so assume someone else will have read and summarised. He is not what you'd call a hard worker, apparently. Ideal for getting us through a complex crisis

I'd like to think they can't mess up the next phase, but their recent behaviour has not been reassuring.

Satire has become real life on John Crace's Politics Sketch column in the Guardian. It's a pretty realistic interpretation of PMQs in general.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/15/borderline-sociopath-boris-johnson-misjudges-mood-chamber-pmqs