New York has achieved herd immunity?

[AKissAndASmile]

I've just seen some claims that new York think they have achieved 70% of people with antibodies to the virus. They've also had no deaths for the first time since March. My reaction is how on earth?!

But other reports today have suggested immunity is lost after just a few weeks or months:
amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/12/immunity-to-covid-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-study-suggests?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true

This virus is still so mysterious. Will be interesting to follow what happens in New York.

I think the new york thing is speculation at this point but would be lovely if true.

Wasn’t that just a couple of badly affected boroughs? Where people are poorer and worked through the pandemic?

I think the new york thing is speculation at this point but would be lovely if true.
I guess it would be lovely for them if they could no longer have to worry about catching it, but I'm shocked that so many people appear to have caught it. And also it might mean the death rate is far lower than 1%

Wasn’t that just a couple of badly affected boroughs? Where people are poorer and worked through the pandemic?
Ah, right, I'm not sure. I just saw something on twitter and then tried to read an article but it was behind a paywall.

The death rate is definitely lower than 1%. It is now reported as around 0.6%. Im sure someone on another thread said it is around 0.04% for under 70s.
There is speculation more might have had it and cleared it with T cells but nobody knows for certain yet

Yes I read this article in the Guardian. It is interesting. It was mainly boroughs like Queens and The Bronx which were hard hit that they found this level of immunity other areas such as Brooklyn were less.

Yes I read this article in the Guardian. It is interesting. It was mainly boroughs like Queens and The Bronx which were hard hit that they found this level of immunity other areas such as Brooklyn were less.

I just find it incredible that basically practically everybody contracted it

And if it's true that antibodies are transient, then they must have got it in the preceding three months or so!

It will be interesting to see when/if they start getting another wave of cases.

Ive just seen the article you mean. Wow I hadnt realised it was so high in some parts of NY. Would be interesting to see some data based on those antibody results

It's so funny that the coronavirus board is so quiet now, when it used to dominate MN. Covid is obviously over 🙈

68% of queens population is about 1.2 million
7,100 deaths in queens
=0.05%
Crazy!

@AKissAndASmile

It's so funny that the coronavirus board is so quiet now, when it used to dominate MN. Covid is obviously over 🙈

I was thinking the same thing! There'd be several posts about the same thing too. It was getting boring.

I wouldn’t get your hopes up too much OP, I think the antibodies train of thought is now moving towards the possibility that immunity only lasts a few months as the mutations change the sequence of the virus sadly.

@AKissAndASmile

Yes I read this article in the Guardian. It is interesting. It was mainly boroughs like Queens and The Bronx which were hard hit that they found this level of immunity other areas such as Brooklyn were less.

I just find it incredible that basically practically everybody contracted it

They probably didn’t. It wasn’t a representative sample even within those boroughs. It was people who self presented at a medical centre for a test. It’s possible that’s over represents people who have antibodies.

I think citywide, the % of anyibody tests that are positive is about 25%.

The 25 percent was an older figure so would have gone up since then.

Although I suspect the queens figure is higher than overall yes.

And I think that there must still be some faith that antibodies provide resistance if not then all the millions on vaccine research is a waste since vaccine only work by stimulating the body to produce the immune response that the body produces by natural infection if the body does produce an effective immune response it would seem to be game over on the vaccine search! But no scientists seems to be suggesting that (at least not publicly!)

They've just got a grip over it with a hard lockdown and then compulsory masks.

From papers I have read, bc the virus was of an animal origin, ( hence our immune systems not recognising it & fighting it) they can't confidently say we WILL get herd immunity in the traditional way.

NY was one of the first hardest hit areas & have suffered dreadfully, but now they are coming out of it, ironically, as many parts of the US are climbing the peak.

Gov Cuomo has today impose quite strict restrictions on people visiting from certain high risk states. It won't be popular with many & possibly a PITA to enforce , but you can't blame him & the move seems popular amongst NY residents.

We can only watch through our fingers from over here.

My feeling is that as much as Boris has completely mishandled our crisis in many ways ( a discussion for another day) we Brits have, on the whole been sensible & it is THAT which has stopped it being worse than the horrendous shit show it already is & to date is nowhere near as bad as the US. But we shall see.

DoryNow
I'm not sure we're better than the US. Yes, they've got loads of cases but they're also testing far more than we're doing. I do think Brits are being careful and adhering to the rules, though. I think whenever Bozo changes the rules people take it as read that it's ok to loosen up, even though nothing has really changed in terms of the prevalence of the virus

I agree Bozo loosened up the restrictions far too swiftly IMHO, I know we have to start testing the water, but surely one bit at a time every 2 weeks would allow us to see if each step is working.

The worst thing he did ( in the lifting regard) was lift the how far from home bit when travel was allowed again, hence the morons on the beaches & in the touristy places. If we could have had a 30 mile from home limit it might have helped. Who knows.

At least, inadequate & shambolic as his leadership HAS been, at least we have had SOME vague attempt at leadership unlike the US & that excuse of a President.

I am very concerned for friends & family over there, their MH as well as the physical risks is really strained.

There is no point creating rules such as "30 mile limits" if they are impossible to enforce. Morons will still be morons.

@Jrobhatch29

68% of queens population is about 1.2 million 7,100 deaths in queens =0.05% Crazy!

======== @jrobhatch 7,100 is about 0.6% of 1.2 million

The CDC has been calculating 0.6-0.7% IFR over the USA

7,100 is about 0.6% of 1.2 million

Which is broadly consistent with Ian Fergusson’s figure of 510,000 for the U.K. had we just let it rip through.