Vaccine - which one?

[Dorual]

I'm guessing they'll be rolling out the Oxford vaccine from October. What about the Moderna one that may be approved? Will they use ut in the US? Will we have it in addition to the Oxford, if it proves more effective? What about all the other vaccines in their late stages? Which one will be rolled out? Who decides? Or will there be numerous ones in different countries?

Feck knows. I still wager a lot of money will get wasted giving out vaccines that don't even work.

Let’s wait and see if they work first.

If the Oxford vaccine is safe and effective (even if only 50%) then it I would be hugely surprised if it is not rolled out.

It's likely other vaccines will follow, they may well perform better but we don't need perfection for it to have a positive impact.

My (very limited) understanding is that the Oxford vaccine might turn out to be a "good enough for now" vaccine. IE it's ready fairly soon but will prevent people getting really ill from it (rather than getting it at all) and will only last about a year.
So it'll buy us time to either improve it or get a better one. But what we get in October IF we get it then won't be the end result if that makes sense?

We actually need several companies to be successful globally to meet the demand. Please don't underestimate the time and complexity required to manufacture vaccines. And I don't think young and healthy people will be receiving a vaccine before well into next year. Older and vulnerable will be priority.

I think it will be October and will be the over 65 /pregnant and vulnerable like the flu jab which is fine I am more worried about my parents !

We can’t possibly know which one is best until the trials have completed.

It may be that one vaccine is best for one group and a different one for another - just as last year over 65’s got a different flu vaccine from under 65’s.

I’ll be head of the queue for whichever one they decide is appropriate for me.

@Deblou43 this would fit with Chris Witty suggesting next spring as a return to normal. By then, the majority needing to be vaccinated would have been.

I'd be amazed if any vaccine was ready by October. I have a couple of friends who have taken part in the Oxford trial and they are being followed up for a year.

Is october still a possibility? I truly hope so 🤞

If the Oxford vaccine trials are successful then as I understand it they are planning to have 40 million doses ready by October. It is already being manufactured on a large scale in anticipation of it being effective.

Errrm, the one that works?

depends what you call "works"...
I have impression Oxford vacc won't stop you getting sick it will just reduce how sick some people get.
Better than nothing I guess, but not what I thought a vaccine normally did. When it's scaled up to millions of doses, it probably will definitely not prevent some deaths, so most people will keep wanting a better product.

depends what you call "works"...
I have impression Oxford vacc won't stop you getting sick it will just reduce how sick some people get.
Better than nothing I guess, but not what I thought a vaccine normally did. When it's scaled up to millions of doses, it probably will definitely not prevent some deaths, so most people will keep wanting a better product

That's the impression I get, but in the first instance something that will significantly reduce serious cases and deaths would be a good start, could potentially see us through the winter and would buy us time to refine it or find a better "long-term" solution.

The idea that the Oxford vaccine will only protect against severe disease isn't quite right. They don't know for for definite yet.

That information came out of the monkey trials that were carried out early on. The trial was undertaken at the request of the regulator as an additional safety trial because some of the SARS vaccine candidates had resulted in people becoming more unwell and, even though the Oxford vaccine candidate is made completely differently, they wanted to be 100% sure there weren't the same issues. Fortunately, those issues did not occur.

As part of the test they completely flooded the monkeys with the virus. It was put into their lungs, nose, mouth and eyes in massive doses. That would obviously not happen in the course of a "normal" infection. It may well be that if a person is exposed in the community the vaccine will be perfectly able to protect them from infection.

Even if it can only protect people from severe disease that would be a huge step forward. Future vaccines may well be better but if Oxford works it will almost certainly buy time and reduce those who become severely unwell and die.

inews.co.uk/news/science/coronavirus-vaccine-uk-latest-oxford-race-scientists-august-covid-19-trials-497704

Hope for a vaccine is honestly the only thing keeping me at all positive these days.

When do we find out if it works?

I wonder if they have a signal from Brazil yet

The article I posted says they could know by August...

It's a double blind trial so no one will know if it is working until there have been enough infections in the group and they then look into whether those infected had the vaccine or the placebo.

They're now testing it in Brazil, South Africa and I think in some parts of the US

Weren't there supposed to be some preliminary results in July..... I think that was testing to see what the antibody response was like. But the gold standard is how many of the vaccine group get infected compared to the meningitis group.

it probably will definitely not prevent some deaths
What a confusing statement

@PuzzledObserver

Weren't there supposed to be some preliminary results in July..... I think that was testing to see what the antibody response was like. But the gold standard is how many of the vaccine group get infected compared to the meningitis group.

I think they changed it from July to August. I wondered if it was because cases were dropping in UK. Hence taking the testing to Brazil and South Africa.