What exactly Is the strategy/way forward

[Notcontent]

I was just reading that a pub has closed after a customer tested positive. They are now tracing all the other customers.

What does this mean for the future? Realistically this will just keep happening until a vaccine is found - is that right? Because in the U.K., particularly now that people will be travelling abroad and coming back, there is no chance of completely stamping out the virus. So does this mean that every time there is a case in a school, or an office, or a restaurant, or a gym (once they open) etc they will need to close?

I think localised lockdowns of specific areas/locations until there is a vaccine is pretty much inevitable really.
It's a worry for schools as I think there will be frequent closures/lockdowns making it really difficult for working parents.
Maybe by some miracle the numbers of infections will be much lower by September.
So in summary, who knows!

I would like to know the end goal too. It just seems absolutely insane to live socially distanced indefinitely until a vaccine is found as we may never get one.

I keep wondering about this too. Obviously, the ideal is that cases continue to decrease which they are at present.

I teach and can't imagine constant stop/starting next year

Plus so many businesses will suffer if they have to keep closing. They are suffering already because they can't run at full capacity.

No idea really. We may never get a vaccine but it seems strange to think of living like this forver.

My guess is specific localised restrictions to deal with local clusters.
Continued social distancing and social restrictions for high risk activities through the autumn/ winter.

Hopefully back to real normal next spring when sunshine, UV and vitamin D put the advantage back on to our side after winter/ flu season.

Eventually everyone will have to admit what they should have admitted in March, which is that trying to completely control a virus that is present in huge numbers all over the world is a crazy-making nonsense and that while it makes sense to take precautions like good hygiene, we will have to accept at some point soon that covid is one virus among many that a lot of us will probably get at some point. Shutting life down to avoid one risk, with the result that you increase many other risks is a stupid, irresponsible thing to do and the only reason politicians won't admit that is because they will be rightly asked why millions of people have lost their jobs for nothing.

@TheDailyCarbuncle I must admit,I have also wondered if that will eventually be the outcome.

Maybe it will. I have noticed that the news seems to be less coronavirus focussed lately (BBC anyway). They are still writing about it obviously but a few weeks ago, the news pages were full of nothing else, we had the daily briefing etc. but that has stopped now.

This utter dickhead has gone from saying that we absolutely have to control the virus or everyone is going to die a horrible death to saying we all have to assess our own risk, like crossing the road:

twitter.com/WHO/status/1278425206965653504?s=20

Just because he's scientist doesn't mean he isn't a total idiot and I think all of the people who whipped up fear of covid should be asked very directly what they expected to happen in the long run - my guess is that they didn't think that far ahead and were only concerned with ensuring that if covid had turned out to be a mass killer that they had covered their arses by insisting everyone be locked up. None had the courage to say 'yes there's a danger, but panicking and destroying people's lives isn't the answer.'

These scientists think it should be aiming for a ‘Zero-Covid Britain’, ie the elimination of the virus from the U.K.

www.independentsage.org/independent-sage-on-achieving-a-zero-covid-uk-i-e-the-elimination-of-the-virus-from-the-uk/

Sounds sensible but challenging. So of course we won’t do it.

@Redolent

These scientists think it should be aiming for a ‘Zero-Covid Britain’, ie the elimination of the virus from the U.K.

www.independentsage.org/independent-sage-on-achieving-a-zero-covid-uk-i-e-the-elimination-of-the-virus-from-the-uk/

Sounds sensible but challenging. So of course we won’t do it.

I'm sorry I don't have time to read the link at the moment - does it explain how it's possible to keep covid out when it's present in so many countries around the world?

I noticed the pub lady said they didn't have to close, but they did anyway

@TheDailyCarbuncle I agree with every thing you've said.
This combined with the fact that such high numbers of people are asymptomatic makes the end goal of controlling this virus absolutely ridiculous. Are we going to shut every single leisure venue/school/hotel every time theres a positive?? Insanity.

Eventually everyone will have to admit what they should have admitted in March, which is that trying to completely control a virus that is present in huge numbers all over the world is a crazy-making nonsense and that while it makes sense to take precautions like good hygiene, we will have to accept at some point soon that covid is one virus among many that a lot of us will probably get at some point. Shutting life down to avoid one risk, with the result that you increase many other risks is a stupid, irresponsible thing to do and the only reason politicians won't admit that is because they will be rightly asked why millions of people have lost their jobs for nothing.

This

my guess is that they didn't think that far ahead and were only concerned with ensuring that if covid had turned out to be a mass killer that they had covered their arses by insisting everyone be locked up.

And this.

Lockdown was not ordered because of a sensible assessment of the benefits of lockdown vs the downsides of lockdown (including the long term downsides). It was ordered because the govt reckoned they were more likely to get blamed for not locking down than for locking down, and more likely to get blamed for covid deaths than for anything else. Let’s see how that works out longer term.

I think that is the plan to keep a lid on and stop outbreaks getting out of control. Schools are expecting and been told (latest government guidance) to ensure adequate remote learning is in place as and when it will be needed. Schools to remain open but possible that whole year group bubbles could be sent home. I think it's fair to say expect disruption ahead.

How long will the localised lockdown go on for? (Past furlough payments?) If a business has to shut for 2 weeks .....after a period of months with far from normal income, they wont survive .

And what if you went to pub a... got told by t and t you had to isolate for 2 weeks, then went out and a month later went to pub b where someone else tested positive, had to isolate for another 2 weeks.....who pays for that? Do you apply for SSP?

Don't forget effective treatments as well as a vaccine. Not so long ago my fil has tb when he was a child and there were no antibiotics. He got an ear infection in hospital and was deaf for the rest of his life in one ear. Just one example.

It's interesting to see things begin to go awry in places that had done well like Australia and Israel. I think basically a combination of social distancing, contact tracing, immunity and local lockdowns will combine to prevent spread from going exponential, hopefully. Some improved treatments and more limited use of ventilators will mean hospitals are less easily overwhelmed. We will thus muddle through and coronavirus will stop being at the forefront of our minds.

I have a relative in Holland she told me they do not close things down, for example at school if a child has symptoms they stay home till better, but they still only test more severe cases. Anyway they seem to be managing OK there and it is also, albeit smaller, a densely populated country...not sure what I am saying but anyway the deaths there are low. Although again I'm not sure if they test the elderly etc.

Yes places/areas will have local lockdowns for a bit, government can't let things stay open as it will look as if all this lockdown would've been for nothing if they ignore future outbreaks. I predict, based on absolutely nothing concrete, a vaccine will be rolled out next Autumn.

Another wondering this. People are not going to self isolate if their job isnt paying, companys couldnt afford it so who picks up that bill? Cant see the government paying once furlough ends.

It is not very clear what happens with the contact tracing in pubs etc - is it the people close to the ones positive or everyone? I think we need some more clarity on things like this.

Also with schools the whole year group 240 in secondary to go home if one is positive? Or there was something about 2 cases. Again not very clear.

If you have two parents working out of the home, school as well and then going to pubs or the swimming pool that could be multiple calls and stays home for weeks on end. Just for going about daily life. Where so you draw the line

@minipie completely agree about the government locking down in what they perceived as public (and media) favour.

I (probably naively) also wonder if the government are quite sure there will be an effective vaccine soon so the long long term isn't really a concern for them, they are just trying to muddle along until it gets rolled out.

@Beebityboo I believe this. The two scientists on the daily briefing have said as much, science will come up with an answer and we just have to be patient. If you rewatch the last two daily briefings with Whitty and Vallance I think this is basically the bottom line.

In theory if we can keep rabies out we could keep covid out but as it involves closing every border it won't happen.