Is Covid just going to overwhelm the whole world

[BumbleWumble]

The number of cases globally is now over 11 million. Deaths are at nearly 525,000. It seems to me it won't be long before this disease has overwhelmed the whole world. I can't see how it isn't going to just roll on and on eventually into the billions.

Even in countries that have managed to get the numbers down are likely to see a resurgence from what I understand. That will probably actually be resurgence after resurgence. As far as I can see the only way out is a vaccine, with all 8 billion people being vaccinated, and there is no guarantee that one will ever be found or that the huge task of giving it to the entire population of the world could be accomplished.

It just seems to me that the future for the whole of humanity will likely consist of living in constant fear of this awful disease, which will gradually swallow us up. I understand that in many countries they already had to live alongside deadly contagious diseases. Maybe they are more used to it, but Covid is certainly a terrible one to be added to the mix. And surely eventually due its huge level of contagiousness the number of victims will dwarf that of any other ailment.

I just can't see much hope for any one. I am extremely anxious about this so maybe my perception is skewed, but I just see it ending up an unprecedented disaster in terms of number of cases and fatalities.

the fear of the HIV pandemic
HIV you say?
(From the same economist article)
'Changing social norms is hard. Just look at aids, known for decades to be prevented by safe sex and clean needles. Yet in 2018, 1.7m people were newly infected with hiv, the virus that causes it. Covid-19 is easier to talk about than aids, but harder to avoid. Wearing a mask is chiefly about protecting others; the young, fit and asymptomatic are being asked to follow tedious rules to shield the old and infirm.
Changing behaviour requires clear communication from trusted figures, national and local. But many people do not believe their politicians. In countries such as America, Iran, Britain, Russia and Brazil, which have the highest caseloads, presidents and prime ministers minimised the threat, vacillated, issued bad advice or seemed more interested in their own political fortunes than in their country—sometimes all at once'

@crosseyedMary

The Economist is not particularly optimistic... www.economist.com/leaders/2020/07/04/covid-19-is-here-to-stay-people-will-have-to-adapt?fsrc=newsletter&utm_campaign=the-economist-today&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=2020-07-03&utm_content=article-link-1 The world is not experiencing a second wave: it never got over the first. Some 10m people are known to have been infected. Pretty much everywhere has registered cases (Turkmenistan and North Korea have not, though, like Antarctica). For every country such as China, Taiwan and Vietnam, which seems to be able to contain the virus, there are more, in Latin America and South Asia, where it is raging. Others, including the United States, are at risk of losing control or, in much of Africa, in the early phase of their epidemic. Europe is somewhere in between.

The worst is to come. Based on research in 84 countries, a team at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology reckons that, for each recorded case, 12 go unrecorded and that for every two covid-19 deaths counted, a third is misattributed to other causes. Without a medical breakthrough, it says, the total number of cases will climb to 200m-600m by spring 2021. At that point, between 1.4m and 3.7m people will have died. Even then, well over 90% of the world’s population will still be vulnerable to infection—more if immunity turns out to be transient.

Cheerful. But if 90% arent even going to get it, it hardly supports the OPs overwhelming the world theory

@JRobhatch29

They didn't say 90% weren't going to get it, they said in a year's time they wouldn't have caught it meaning they'd still be susceptible at a later date.

So if it's predicted that by next spring up to 600 million could be infected, then it does seem that eventually this will rip through much of humanity. Unless every one gets vaccinated.

I think it is understandable to be concerned. Is it going to get worse before it gets better from this point. I would say Yes for much of the world.
Do you think you being this anxious about it helps the world would be my question and try to identify what exactly are you worried about. Is it personal fear for yourself? Or something think else. And if the worry is too much for you I think talking to someone about it would be wise.

[quote BumbleWumble]@JRobhatch29

They didn't say 90% weren't going to get it, they said in a year's time they wouldn't have caught it meaning they'd still be susceptible at a later date.

So if it's predicted that by next spring up to 600 million could be infected, then it does seem that eventually this will rip through much of humanity. Unless every one gets vaccinated.[/quote]
Not if you use actual maths. It says at upper end 600 millon cases. 10 % of 7 billion is 700000000 so that doesnt even predict 10% contracting virus. Load of rubbisg. Parts of the uk have 10% cases already.

"Because this virus is so horribly contagious and so awful."

From your new thread that you have started despite only starting this one yesterday. According to that post in a year and a half still only 10% will have caught it so it cant be that horribly contagious. By sprinflg 2021 we will be in a much better position, even Chris Whitty said that. Like others have said, you need to seek help for your anxiety. A cautious level of anxiety is normal, this is not

@BumbleWumble

So if it's predicted that by next spring up to 600 million could be infected, then it does seem that eventually this will rip through much of humanity. Unless every one gets vaccinated.

How many people do you know who HAVENT had chicken pox, norovirus, some form of flu virus or a cold virus.

Evidence seems to be indicating that although cases are rising deaths are not - every day we are figuring out how to treat it more and it does seem to be less deadly that at the beginning

I really think you need to make an appointment with your GP. This level of anxiety is not normal.

The OP has started another thread the same.

You need RL help

Covid is really not a bad disease. You need to calm down. Considering that the likes of polio and malaria are still on the loose it’s not a big deal really. The only disease we’ve successfully eradicated is the small pox. I don’t see why anyone would expect global eradication of something that is relatively fairly benign.

This is a ridiculous overreaction. Although if you think things are that bad, then I would make the most of enjoying what you are allowed to do, now - better that than cower in terror until you get ill anyway!

OP, please contact your GP, to be existing in this terrified state must be dreadful for you. You don't deserve to be this afraid. There is help available, please seek it out.

Those numbers imply a mortality rate of

Lalalamps - ironically, the OP has had TB.

Turkmenistan and North Korea have not, though

LOL and if you believe ANYTHING that comes out of either country, you're utterly gullible. Totally secretive, authoritarian states, both.

for every two covid-19 deaths counted, a third is misattributed to other causes

On the flip side, there are deaths attributed to Covid (because Covid is present), that were almost certainly NOT due to Covid, but due to the other chronic condition(s) that person was suffering from. If you're already dying of cancer/heart disease/dementia and you happen to also be positive for Covid then it goes down as a Covid death, despite the fact that you'd have died of your underlying condition anyway.

OP you do know that millions of people die of preventable/treatable diseases every single year? Are you just less bothered about them as they’re not likely to affect you?

@Lalalamps I honestly believe it is due to 24 hour news and social media, I also think the media has a lot to answer for with their over sensationalising. I honestly think if this had been before 24 hour news and Facebook there would never have been lockdowns etc, we would be aware of it but not terrified as some are

OP I understand your anxiety, I work in community nursing and when all the photos emerged from Italy we were all terrified (I am in a rural area of Scotland), my job changed irreversibly (covid being used to being changed in via the back door) and I was really worried I would get it and be very ill. Thankfully we never had what they thought we would and in fact none of the areas really did, we had the new hospital built which was never used etc. A little perspective is needed, there are people I see who have had polio as children and were quarantined 100s of Miles away from their families for years and still now have heath issues due to it that have affected them all their lives So I’m sorry if I can’t get overly worked up about this

@zafferana see I don’t like how they are allowed to do this as it will be really skewing the numbers up, I’m interested to see if anyone does an actual study into the real numbers

That's why the numbers that everyone touts for each country as if they are gospel are very misleading @AlaskaThunderfuckHiiiiiiiii. Some countries have tested very widely and found asymptomatic cases of both infections and deaths. Others have barely tested at all and so their infection numbers are really low and they're able to say 'We have no/hardly any infections here!'. Some of those nations don't test much because they don't have the capability - others do it entirely cynically so they're not seen as having a problem.

Excess deaths over expected normal figures is one way to determine the Covid death rate, but if a state/country has lots of young people catching it the death/infection rates will look very different (see Florida) to a country where lots of older people catch it (see Italy and the UK).

Bumble, I hear you. I'm not scared of Covid persay, but the whole experience has been a slight assault to my sense of safety in the world (obviously I have a very privileged life). The swiftness with which everything has happened has shaken my sense of feeling safe in the world, of my ability to protect and provide for my children, of the ability to see family (I am from another country which has almost eliminated Covid, so they have strict quarantine rules which at this point would make it extremely difficult for me to take my children there, and I'm not sure if my husband would be granted a visa). We don't have financial worries, but friends have overnight gone from comfortable lives to paying bills from their savings, with no idea what to do when those savings disappear.
My sense of disillusionment has been compounded by the BLM movement and realising that a significant proportion of the population have lived with this underlying fear, and has really made me question how I see the world and the sense of trust I have in authority figures such as police. The world seems to have rotated to a 45° angle, just enough to set me stumbling around, but not enough for others to go there sky is falling!'
I say all this to say, I hear you. You sound scared, and the fears you have are very real to you. But please know, if you are experiencing anxiety for the first time, that what you are experiencing is what it feels like to have your brain lie to you. Sometimes the 'fight or flight' switch in our brain gets stuck in the on position, and the longer it stays there, the more your brain will reinforce those feelings you're experiencing.
If you aren't able to manage these feelings yourself through grounding exercises and meditation, then please do turn to your GP as they will hopefully help.

I've been seeing a counsellor for some time now related to other stuff, and I've really found it very useful to have a weekly appointment through this pandemic to help me with my anxiety around covid.

I would recommend the same for you @BumbleWumble, if you're not having therapy already. It's horrible living with the level of anxiety you have.

It will pass. Or at least our overwhelming anxiety will pass, even in the virus doesn't. Humans are pretty resilient.

The reason we've reacted as we have in the west, I think, is that we haven't had a war in a long time nor have most of us have to deal with a serious shared medical threat like this before either. So we've not seen deaths on this sort of scale over such a short period. Countries that have, probably don't see COVID in quite the same way.

On the other hand, a sizable proportion of the population, especially the young, think they are invulnerable. They don't accept that their behaviour i.e. not following some basic and pretty reasonable rules will make things worse. I suspect this was true during WW2 and previous pandemics too.

But it will all pass. Hopefully, we will still be around to see it.

OP you do know that millions of people die of preventable/treatable diseases every single year? Are you just less bothered about them as they’re not likely to affect you?

Anxiety arises when you feel personally threatened, not by a threat to other unknown people. That's a fact. So yes.

There are 7 billion people in the world or 7000 million... So currently just over 0.1% of the population of the world have been infected... Just another 99.9% to go... I'm sorry but this is how media scaremonger people with figures that seem terrible but put into context aren't nearly quite as scary... Not saying it hasn't been tragic but certainly not overwhelming the whole population.