Can you find out how many new virus cases in your area?

[whydoesitalwaysrainonme82]

Just wondering if you can find out how many possible cases in your area?

Really interesting esp re Leicester & other emerging hotspots

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1277960112691273728?s=21

stealth boast :)
www.bccdc.ca/health-info/diseases-conditions/covid-19/data

under the care of dr bonnie henry, my massive health region is called the "interior". updated daily of course.

Yes, it’s definitely more like 90% of cases missed. Only 10% (possibly less) of cases make it to hospital.

My town has been seeing increases of 4-6 hospitalised cases a day, which I’ve presumed meant more like 40-60 actual cases a day.

Over 90% of Leicester cases are in pillar 2,
but you can't find these by typing a Leicester postcode in any tracker

@PatriciaHolm posted these PHE maps on another thread from their most recent weekly surveillance report (so published last week).

Whereas the daily dashboard publishes pillar 1 in terms of both actual confirmed cases and confirmed cases per 100,000 people the PHE maps just give a banding of cases per 100,000 residents. The maps are also upper tier local authorities only, and you do need to know your local authority geography. councils' map www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?hl=en&mid=1S_AbfmYbOpHBeyLEcmB9f-wRD4Y&ll=53.59615067528699%2C-2.0960400430810333&z=10

Not quite sure how the maps display, but one shows the cumulative position for pillar 1 and pillar 2; and the other for the most recent week.

If which map is which is not apparent on the cumulative map the red areas have over 601 cases per 100,000 and on the weekly one red is over 45 cases per 100,000

The weekly map might be of greater interest. So red and dark red blobs include Bedford, moving into the Midlands to Leicester; up into South Yorkshire which looks to be Rotherham; then up to Barnsley (dark red); Kirklees (red) and Bradford (dark red - this presumably explains why Keighley has been mentioned as a surge area). Then west to Oldham, Tameside, and Rochdale (dark red) and finally Blackburn.

The banding is a bit of a blunt instrument. County Council areas are a bit meaningless. Kent has a population not far off 1.6m people, and 12 district councils areas, which probably don't all have the same case rate. So just cumulative pillar 1 from the dashboard has Ashford at over 700 cases per 100,000 whereas Tonbridge and Malling has less than 200 per 100,000.

Likewise there is no way of knowing on the maps if an LA is near the bottom or top of a banding. So Cheshire West is in the 10 to 15 per 100,000 band and Cheshire East the 15 to 30 band. The former might be 10 and the latter 29.9, so a significant difference; ot it could be West in 14.9 and East 15.1 so to all intents and purposes the same.

For anyone interested, Cumbria County Council have published their Covid-19 outbreak control plan for public consultation.

cumbria.gov.uk/publichealth/covid19outbreakcontrol.asp

Such a relief to see the figures here improve.

@Carlislemumof4 I'm in a rural county but positively densely populated compared to Cumbria. Given rural areas have largely had much lower levels are the reasons why Cumbria was so high clear yet? Good to see the lighter shade green on the PHE map though - hope it continues.

So,

We don't get told community and other venue deaths or positive cases, or a running total of local cases.

Why the f... not??

@onlinelinda

So,

We don't get told community and other venue deaths or positive cases, or a running total of local cases.

Why the f... not??

Deaths we know by location yes - home, care home, or hospital, and by area. It's positive tests we don't know the locality of, which tbh is much more important!

On the positive side, the last hospital admissions data by area (which is about 6 days old to be fair) was all trending down.

[quote boys3]@Carlislemumof4 I'm in a rural county but positively densely populated compared to Cumbria. Given rural areas have largely had much lower levels are the reasons why Cumbria was so high clear yet? Good to see the lighter shade green on the PHE map though - hope it continues.[/quote]
@boys3 No, I don't think the reasons are clear as yet. The new figures combined with the publication of details as to how local outbreaks will be dealt with have made me feel a lot better about everything opening up though. I was fully expecting us to be in Leicester's situation a couple of weeks back. Our local health authority's approach seems to be working.

Would people say 21 cases in a week is a lot for population just under 300,000?

@cherryghost That's 7 per 100,000, which is low. It would put it definitely in the bottom half of the list of local infections (see attached)