Catching Covid

[Sweetnessandfight]

How difficult do you think it is to catch Covid-19 if you are sensible? Some of my friends are avoiding our local shopping centre. We took our young daughters there today - one in buggy, other careful and able to avoid touching things and socially distance. Assuming none of us have it so aren't a risk to others, I would assume the risk of us picking it up would be low. As far as I understand it, to catch it one of us would have to:

• inhale particles emitted by someone sneezing or coughing, presumably right at you, or by being unlucky enough to walk immediately into an area where they had just done so
• touch a surface with our hands which had virus particles on it and then transfer this to our faces. Metal or plastic surfaces would be higher risk.

So given that we went shopping but did not go within (realistically) 1.5 metres of anyone there, tried to avoid touching things and when we did sanitised immediately, and took what we bought home to be quarantined for 72 hours, I would evaluate our outing as very low risk. Or am I mistaken?

And what scenarios that are currently or will be allowed soon do you think will pose highest risk to people?

tbh, I think it's extremely hard to catch unless you spend at least 10 minutes face to face within 1m of someone who happens to be infectious.

But no one can prove that to you.

@ragged I agree. I am no scientist, but surely if it were ‘easy’ to catch then we would have had 100’s of 1000’s of people unwell. The cases where some sharing a household have contracted it, yet others have not are very interesting.

In the case of households where not everyone seems to get it (presuming that the first infected person does not self-isolate effectively) then I wonder about the accuracy of the tests.

There was an interesting German study which looked partly at the risk of transmissibility between members of the same household. See
doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.04.20090076

It says, for example, that where one person in a household of two was infected there was a 44% chance of the second person being and in a four person household an 18% chance of the second, third and fourth person being infected (and this was in a population with a high infection rate anyway so some members of the household may have caught it from outside the household). This suggests that less than half the time members of the same household as an infected person won’t catch it. I think that’s consistent with other studies.

If it’s not that easy to catch it from members of the same household the chances of catching it from a socially distanced shopping trip when only one in 1700 have it seem pretty slim. That said some people are probably more susceptible than others.

I am still not aware of good evidence that it can be caught from surfaces. I think it’s in the theoretically possible but unlikely category.

If under usual circumstances the reproduction rate is three, each infected person infects three others. But think about how many people you would usually come into brief contact with if you were living in a normal way. It must be thousands if counting people you brush past in the supermarket.

Basically I think most transmission now is in communities like care homes and hospitals and between members of infected households so the chances of catching it out shopping are really low.

Everything you’ve described sounds pretty sensible.

I do know people who’ve caught it who claimed they were really careful but seem to have got it from going to the supermarket, but you sound like you know what you’re doing. Except it should be 2m, not 1.5, if you want to minimise risk (and FYI the new rules are 2m if possible, or 1m with other precautions if not).

However personally I’ve found it increasingly impossible to stay far enough apart from people.

I mean because they don’t stay away from me, not because I can’t be arsed. Social distancing and one way systems largely going to pot round here.

However personally I’ve found it increasingly impossible to stay far enough apart from people

Me too, and it's a pity

Because the idea with distancing is to prevent transmission taking hold again. And bit people can get close to (at least some of) their nearest and dearest, they surely shouldn't still be feeling the same lack of human contact which leads to desires to be close to strangers.

But the way it's going, it'll only be observed again once it's too late, ie only if there is a clear rise.

1:1700 is way more infected people than in February

I think it's much less risky now because community transmission is much lower, but I caught covid in the couple of weeks prior to lockdown when community transmission was high and still have no idea who I caught it from, so it's not someone I know or had a long conversation with (unless they were asymptomatic themselves) it must have been from being in a confined space with a lot of people (a theatre) or just picked up from normal day to day activities (shopping etc) despite being quite cautious around hand washing etc.

It’s worth looking at the stats in your area. For example, in mine, we’ve had no new cases for a few days now. So chances of catching it anywhere are extremely low. You are probably more likely to catch another bug. Before the days with no cases, we had 10 over 10 days. And that included an ‘outbreak’ mentioned in a briefing that Matt Hancock freaked everyone out about. 🙄

@bol87 I think you might possibly live in the same city I do if you're talking about the one Hancock blindsided us all by with that announcement a few weeks back!

Can you post a link to where you're finding the local numbers, I really want to try and keep an eye on them

I thought it was possible in any envlosed space - there were studies originally about offices and restaurants and airplanes where people hadnt necessarily been close to someone else.

We've avoided shops and enclosed spaces.

Outside I thought it was v unlikely unless talking face to face for 15mins.

Im still confused about surface transmission. Certainly at school they're wiping everything repeatedly and not allowing anyone to touch things others have.

OP, I think you are underestimating how easily the infection can be transmitted, though there are various factors at play. Someone on Mumsnet posted a really good article the other day re various studies involving early cases where the authorities had studied exactly who a particular individual had infected. There was a case where someone travelling on two 50 minute bus journeys (to a religious event and back) had infected a lot of other people on the bus. Interestingly, there were two buses and no one on the other bus got infected despite the people mingling at the event itself. So being in a confined space with an infected person appears to increase the risk. I believe the ONS found that taxi driver and bus driver were two occupations with the highest risk of death from Covid in this country. Obviously, a taxi driver will be sitting close to the passengers, but a bus driver will be more than 2 metres away from passengers most of the time.

There was also a Chinese study where a person eating at a restaurant infected various other diners, some of them on different tables over 2 metres away. Interestingly, there were some people who sat nearer to the infected person who didn't get infected. The restaurant was air conditioned and two key factors appeared to be (a) the way in which the air flowed around the restaurant as a result of the air conditioning, and (b) the length of time which the other diners' visit had overlapped with that of the infected person.

Id be interested in the collection of studies link if you know where it was?

I know if I was fully healthy and young Id probably just stick to whatever rules to "slow the spread" and that would be fine.

However as I'm at risk I want to actively avoid getting it. I don't want to be neurotic about stuff or miss out on life if I don't have to.... I'm finding it hard to weigh risk.

We're currently avoiding all indoor things.
We are antibacing hands after gates...
We are washing hands after opening post.

But with easing of restrictions friends want to meet up and I know places will be busier and other people less likely to distance.

My dad didn't get it despite being my mum's sole carer for the 2 weeks before she died. He isolated for 2 weeks after but didn't show any symptoms. Twelve weeks on he's as fit and healthy as he ever was.

There was also a study involving a Chinese couple from Wuhan who travelled to Singapore and attended a church service at a point when they were infectious, but not yet showing symptoms. Various others who attended the church were infected. One woman who was infected had not attended the same service as the Chinese couple, but a later service in which she sat in the same seats. So that would indicate that there was transmission via touching the same surface.

english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-06-17/an-analysis-of-three-covid-19-outbreaks-how-they-happened-and-how-they-can-be-avoided.html

Here is the article, which I think is really good.

covid19.joinzoe.com/data#daily-new-cases?utm_source=App

@PineappleUpsideDownCake Do you check the regional data generated from the Zoe app? I think this is useful because there is clearly significant variation in infection rates from area to area within the UK. If you check your area for a couple of weeks, you will also get a picture of whether infection rates are falling, rising or broadly stable.

They estimate about 6% of uk have had it with most catching it obviously in those 20+ days in march
Some people may not shed.
But it is likely there is something about the people who dont get ill

• prior coronavirus immunity
• blood type

High vit d

• very good health

But also possible they are getting it and not making antibodies.

So i guess where one member of a house catches it from another - so that person is a shedder but the others dont.

Even in the meat factories about 1/4 are getting it when it has to be in the environment surely.
They have found some areas with 50% antibodies though.

My kids are unfortunately not good at behaving and not touching so we wont be going with them shopping for a while yet.
We got ill with maybe covid when we had been in for weeks and either we got it from dc who hadnt been to school for 4w at that point or from a supermarket delivery and although it was a lot of food and this was at peak so he may well have been contagious we wouldnt have been stood having a face to face chat for 10min we would have been obviously 1m+ away and both me and dp got ill and not the kids till later when they were upstairs.

Logically the more people you are taking of your family into a shopping centre you are increasing the chance of one of you touching something.

But coubtries are managing to contain by tracing the people you are in contact with not things so people are more likely to be an issue. Which is why cramming 30 kids in a classroom is going to be a bad idea..

During lockdown, I’ve not gone out much, washed hands a million times a day, washed shopping and deliveries.

I’ve had 3 tummy bugs and a cold. How?!!

My Dad had it. I spent his final hours (cause of death cancer, he was only tested for COVID hours before he died) almost with my head beside his, kissing him on the head, holding hands. Few days leading upto his death I'd helped with his personal care etc with little to no PPE.

I've never shown any symptoms, neither has my Sister, who was also in close contact with him. I did isolate for 14 days when I found out he'd tested positive.

I can't believe I didn't catch it.

I’ve had 3 tummy bugs and a cold. How?!!

God knows! I don't anyone who's been ill for months. Was your food off? Are you pregnant? Was the 'cold' actually seasonal allergies?

I think it's probably quite hard to catch corona if you're able to socially distance in your normal life. If you're a medic or someone whose job necessitates being close to strangers, not so hard, but at least you should now have access to proper PPE.

For those able to WFH and SD, just wear a mask when in shops/on public transport, wash hands regularly, use a high alcohol content hand gel if soap and water not available, and avoid touching your face unless hands are clean. Meet friends/family outside or only in well-ventilated spaces and voila!

And what scenarios that are currently or will be allowed soon do you think will pose highest risk to people?

Flying for leisure. SD is impossible in a metal tube with hundreds of other people for hours - masks or not.

None of it was allergies and I’m not sure it was food poisoning, as we all ate the same stuff!

Thistooshallpass, my dil was working on the Covid wards for the past 3 months. She had an antibody test and found out she’s had it. She had no symptoms at all.