Is the herd immune?

[randomer]

Can we go to the pond and drink with the other wildebeest or will a big old tiger come and snap at our heels?

Aren’t wildebeest in Africa and tigers in India? 🤷‍♀️

Seriously, I think there’s little herd immunity. I have an nhs contract and loads of nhs workers/colleagues are being tested for antibodies, 90% of people I know are coming back negative.

The tiger is laying in the tall grass having a nap but ready to pounce on any wildebeest that gets too near.

Gov briefing yesterday stated 5% immunity IIRC.

And of course no idea how long that 5% will be immune for

May have worn off just in time for flu/virus season in Oct/nov.

I'm not sure I believe that figure of 5% though. So that will be NHS (and some Care sector) staff and in-patients tested (they are the only ones aren't they)? If so, what on earth was the point of lockdown? And there will be a second wave too.

I think the 5% came from random sampling of the population. There is lots of unknowns..reliability of tests, do most people fight off with T cells and not produce antibodies, the timing of the test after infection etc. 5% was average too..much higher in london and other places

So it isn’t as contagious as first thought?

Also how do you get tested for antibodies, pretty sure most people won’t pay for one so how do the stats work.

Yes it's not necessarily anti-bodies that give immunity. It could very well be T cells

Herd immunity needs anything from 60% up. Some quotes I have seen are 90% plus.

5% would not be great. If 40000+ deaths are the cost for 5%, I don't want to see the cost of getting to herd immunity.

We either need better immunity levels than that. Or social distancing to keep R below 1. Or a vaccine. Preferably all 3. Currently we only have the social distancing option.

They could extend the vax trial to more hcp /prison workers/supermarket staff/teachers if they want it.
And meat factiry workers/amazon etc. Anyone without antibodies.
The people who even with some measures will have to see hundreds a day.
Tbh if i were say 80 i would maybe choose the vax to be sble to get on with life as tjey have a high chance of dying in the next year.

Although I guess the issue is you might get a placebo.

@JacobsReesMogadishu, you are right! It is the other big cats that like to snack on wildebeest.

Seriously I wish somebody could explain the Science to me. Oh and tell the truth.