2nd wave won’t be as bad according...

[Mumlove5]

...to Edgar Hope Simpson who was one of the outstanding general practitioner researchers of the 20th century. He showed that shingles was caused by reactivation of the chickenpox virus.

Quick 2 minute video explaining influenza and coronavirus trajectories. Pretty spot on.

Why wouldn't that pattern repeat as we hit our winter months again? I watched the video but am unsure how that relates to a second wave? Did I miss something!?! (highly likely!)

Ivor Cummins answered a similar question...

“Best shot is the normal seasonal hump will occur end of next winter in Northern Hemisphere? Probably much less due to so many susceptible sadly succumbing in this first season...but of course there'll be more next winter.”

Twitter account:

mobile.twitter.com/FatEmperor

Eh? How does that fit with current fast rising cases in US?

@mac12
Remember US is so huge that it's like different countries with how it spreads

I heard an expert on tv today say second waves can be worse than the first. Sorry, can't remember who said it nor on which channel. ( I'm on Covid media overload now).

@Flipfloptanlines yes, and the states that opened up early are the ones seeing the spike in cases - eg Arizona, Texas, Florida - so lock down stalled transmission, too early relaxing of measures with no masks or distancing sees it spread rapidly, even though it’s summer in the northern hemisphere ie not In accordance with the theory in OP’s video

Isn't the US still in it's first wave?

Very much so. Which suggests it’s not just fading away because it’s summer - much as would all love that to be true.

Where does that video say anything about a second wave being "less bad", @Mumlove5?

He is suggesting that coronavirus might be seasonal, which would not be that surprising, a lot of viruses are, including many coronaviruses. You can't even draw that conclusion from his data though because of lockdown so you can't differentiate between the effects of lockdown and the effects of seasonality. Nor can you draw that conclusion from 3 examples, especially one (Brazil) that is likely to be inaccurate.

That curve is totally fudged. It fits the coronavirus curve because he drew it to fit the curve, it doesn't fit the influenza curve! You can't draw a curve from 4 data points (one value per month on the bar chart)! It is broadly correct but that's not the point, he is cynically manipulating the data to prove his point.