Current level of infection in the community?

[MorrisZapp]

It recently changed from around one in four hundred people in the community carrying the circus, to around one in one thousand.

This has changed again but I missed the graphic on the news. I think it might have been one in 1700?

Did anyone catch it?

The news, not the virus.

Yes, 1 in 1700 is the latest estimate from the ONS

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53021671

Magic, thanks!

The news, not the virus

that did make me laugh!

That is lowering at quite an amazing rate isnt it?
Thats got to be good news.

the rate at which it's coming down is so encouraging - zoe said fewer than 5000 cases this morning ... almost 50% down on last week!

Wow, I hadn't actually realised before what tiny, tiny numbers of positive tests these figures are based on - 11 positive tests in their sample. I can see how it would be difficult to have a bigger sample but that's just so prone to random noise - if a couple more or fewer people had tested positive that would have changed their figures hugely.

11 positive from 19,000 people? Absolutely tiny numbers.

Good news. Will no doubt be used by the government to recuce the 2m to 1m, because of course they have to do something to rescue businesses but aren't treating education as of much of a priority

Tiny numbers. A one in 1700 chance of coming across someone with the virus. Though much less than that in reality, assuming people with symptoms won't be out and about.

and kids remain at home...or shopping..!

The ONS plots have error bars! I love them 🥰

Small number statistics always need error bars. As do all statistics imo.

So what do people think the true figure is if you include asymptotic people ?
1 in 800?

@Cherryghost

When they do the sampling they test everyone in all of the households in the study regardless of whether they have symptoms so, as I understand it, the figure of 1 in 1700 is inclusive of asymptomatic people.

That's good to hear then I didn't know that.