2nd Spike - any evidence?

[SoberCurious]

Does anyone have any links to scientific arguments for there being a second peak soon please?

@ballsdeep On the basis that scientists are saying that approx one in a thousand people have it. Surely if there are hundreds of thousands of people closely packed together it's giving the virus chance to spread.

Ok, I see your mistake. Nowhere have there been hundreds of thousands packed indoors with each other. Lots of people wore masks, they were predominantly outside and near to a limited number of people. Say 200 were infected, their maximum infection potential would be more like 2000 people under those circumstances while shouting, at most. Spread all over the country, predominantly young. That's tiny. A second wave will be the virus mutating or multiple outbreaks of thousands of cases overwhelming local hospitals.

@MRex

Do you mean to sound so condescending or if it your mistake? There were still hundreds of thousands of people packed together and many, many masks I saw were on but down to their chins and not covering faces at all. Indoors or outdoors, being closely packed together will give the virus a chance to spread .

@TheCountessofFitzdotterel Sweden's state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, says that though there is extra testing, it doesn't wholly account for the rise (which looks quite steep).

Interesting thread!

Especially about how many people have stayed at home and not broken the '' rules ''...

I think the litmus test has to be these protestes because people will have used tubes, buses etc to get there, then been pretty cheek by jowl.. And of course lots and lots of shouting. With covid living in the throat.. I really do feel 3 weeks time will be telling..

Having said that also factor in just how careful most people a re now in terms of hand washing, not touching faces, alcohol gel... Every little thing but done by many will help.

Let's see in 3 weeks after protests... What's going on.

So we don't have any actual links to a scientist / report saying that they predict a spike then?

I'm not disagreeing with the thought that there might be one, I'd just like to see it from an actual scientist if possible... anyone?

I watched a Webinar on this yesterday, Professor Tim Spector on the Covid-joinZOE website.

He thinks the straightish lines at the moment represent an R of around 1. He seems to think we'll be ok over the summer, lots of time outdoors etc but as we go into Winter and start spending time indoors we could we'll see a second wave!

Why don't people understand?

We have seen packed BE day celebrations and also beaches.

But we have been told over and over that outdoors the transmission is extremely low compared to indoors.

And we are absolutely now where near to lockdown having opened up everything. Even with what we've done it's a minute amount.

No shopping centres, gyms, leisure centreS, restaurants, theatres, cinemas, public transport usage is way down, museums, schools still limited numbers, hairdressers, salons, surgery's and physio etc. No sports matches attended by spectators. Limited training in groups.

The risk of transmission is hugely higher in these situations.

I agree we've not seen a hide spike from these events but they have had some effect.

No denying it's shot but a second wave would be shittier.

@ballsdeep - I'm simply being clear in trying to explain gaps in your logic. Superspreader events of this virus in particular have been based on very close proximity of lots of people, mostly indoors. Even in the case of football crowds - the total number infected was higher than now, no masks, semi-shielded space at the ground and indoors in pubs / taxis later, less awareness of symptoms and quarantine needs etc.

Or - we are past the second wave. Unless we know when it first came here (which is unlikely unless we retest blood samples/xrays etc) and we get some proper info coming our of China we might never know. But historical cases of pandemics suggest first cases much milder - and less affected, subsequent ones much more deadly. Usually happening 5-6 months after first cases. Just need to see one from Nov/Dec and we would know!

I agree we've not seen a hide spike from these events but they have had some effect

Can you explain how you know that? We have no way of knowing what would have happened without VE day or BLM protests. I can't think of any way to identify whether there has been an effect and certainly not ot quantify it.

What's annoying* me a bit is that schools have opened up more at the same time as big protests. If we were following science, we would have changed one thing at a time, for a period of time. Ie, schools open up a bit, watch things for a few weeks, open up a bit more etc, but now we won't be able to isolate schools as a cause of increase infection, or not. Which will affect decisions about September, which is what I want to know about.

*I'm not annoyed people are protesting per se, just unfortunate timing.

I can't think of any way to identify whether there has been an effect

Well, we could compare speed of decline in similar countries. But no one can even agree what a similar country would be, and none of the countries who might be similar, carried out lockdowns or whatever in the same way. So, we're all blind.

The science was the right way to go, but our government has sidelined science the whole way along.

These are "the clowns" - I.e. scientific advisors - who told people to socially distance and not go out in large crowds. BLM has probably set back race relations 20 years by their actions and there will be a backlash.

Florida

"BLM has probably set back race relations 20 years by their actions and there will be a backlash."

Rubbish
Most people, even if not black, understand the anger at watching a police officer brutally murder a helpless prisoner
This was the backlash against that murder and so many hundreds like it in the USA

Racists can always find offence at anything black people do

BLM has probably set back race relations 20 years by their actions and there will be a backlash.

What kind of backlash do you mean?

I think the protests will more likely be the test. The beaches and VE Day celebrations will in truth have been far fewer people than portrayed and done outside with a lot of social distancing. Being close together with lots of vocalising in large crowds was a problem in spreading the first wave.

I think Israel are seeing an increase in cases uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-israel/israel-stops-easing-covid-19-restrictions-after-spike-in-new-cases-idUKKBN23F1T2
This could be one to watch.

I agree we've not seen a hide spike from these events but they have had some effect

Can you explain how you know that? We have no way of knowing what would have happened without VE day or BLM protests. I can't think of any way to identify whether there has been an effect and certainly not ot quantify it.

This is very true.

We do know that Italy and Spain had a faster drop off of cases and deaths than us and afaik they had a stricter lockdown and slower opening up.

But I'm also very careful when comparing. We have completely different habitats in our countries and we have far denser areas of population.

Or - we are past the second wave. Unless we know when it first came here (which is unlikely unless we retest blood samples/xrays etc) and we get some proper info coming our of China we might never know.

Covid may well have been here earlier than official figures, but given there was no discernible change in deaths above underlying averages prior to March, there was no earlier first wave, or even first ripple for that matter.... Any earlier cases would have been part of a current wave that built
very slowly at first but then exploded from March.

We are nowhere near back to normal and it does look like r has slightly increased. Also, the warm weather does seem to slightly lower the transmission rate.

I doubt we will see a second major spike (soon) as most sensible people are still distancing,

However, a virus does what it does, you cannot politicise it. There are still many unknowns but much is known now.

If we opened up fully tomorrow, cases would start rising exponentially again. Maybe not quite as fast as the first time due to some level of herd immunity and the nice weather, but rise they would to a level where everyone would demand another (hard) lockdown.

Opening up bit by bit and seeing what happens is sensible and, also, optimal economically.

Derby,

To be fair, if Covid arrived earlier but the ifr was much lower than currently thought, you could model infection increasing for quite a few more weeks without a perceptible death rate rise, especially if the initial cases were predominantly young and fit, returning from skiing or business trips abroad.

Which leaves immunity. In the above scenario we should see more immunity than is currently believed. However, I am not sure the current antibody tests are that reliable and there could be innate immunity too.

I think that the jury is still out.

I think the protests will more likely be the test. The beaches and VE Day celebrations will in truth have been far fewer people than portrayed and done outside with a lot of social distancing. Being close together with lots of vocalising in large crowds was a problem in spreading the first wave.

I agree... A study investigating transmission events identified only one outdoors from more than a hundred indoors, and the outdoor event involved
no social distancing. People don’t bunch together like sardines at “packed beaches” and there’s generally a breeze being next to the sea... and the recent protests saw people outside and generally wearing masks, so the risks are overblown here too.

Since March, we have al generally become hyper-sensitive to social distancing in a way that didn’t even cross our minds beforehand. Take London for instance.... Prior to lockdown there would have been millions getting onto tightly packed trains, buses and tubes daily. I watched a tv show recently and was shocked by how closely packed the audience were in the theatre.... of course,
it was shot months ago and my reaction was ridiculous but it shows how my psyche has changed, and judging from other posts, this is common.... even brushing within 2m of someone for a split second becomes a concern for many. Recent events don’t even come close to how things were pre-lockdown.

We may see a plateauing or possibly even a slight pulse in numbers after recent events, but no second spike anything like the first one.... That doesn’t mean it’s ok to go back completely to how things were before for the reasons I’ve outlined above.

@larrygrylls

I think the fact that transmission seems to occur very spikily is a factor that could explain why it could have been here for a while in relatively small numbers for a while. Most people wouldn’t have infected anyone else, but a few would have infected a lot.... It could conceivably have bubbled
along without any super-spreader events for a few weeks with most infections not propagated. Once a critical mass is reached and thousands are infected, the super-spreading events happen frequently and growth at a population level becomes exponential.

Derby,

Yes, that may also be the case.

But if you model a January start, an infectivity rate of, say, 2.5 and an IFR of 0.2, then it will take several weeks for the deaths caused to be statistically significant relative to the normal winter deaths, especially if we were having an unsually 'good' flu season.