The beginning of the end?

[MashedPotatoBrainz]

Is anyone else hopeful that this awful virus is starting to burn out? I've seen reports from doctors in Italy saying the cases they are now seeing are less severe than earlier and if you look at global figures the number of cases is still rising rapidly but the death rate appears to be falling.

Is this just wishful thinking?

God I hope so.

I hope so, but it may just be wishful thinking on my part!

If the virus really has mutated into a weaker strain then we’ll be presented with evidence to that effect. I haven’t seen any yet.

Until then I’m assuming that we have become more proficient at dealing with it... But of course I’m trying to remain hopeful.

@MashedPotatoBrainz

Is anyone else hopeful that this awful virus is starting to burn out? I've seen reports from doctors in Italy saying the cases they are now seeing are less severe than earlier and if you look at global figures the number of cases is still rising rapidly but the death rate appears to be falling.

Is this just wishful thinking?

I think that the most vulnerable will have caught it earlier before there was any herd immunity and will have died earlier, the longer it goes on the cases will rise but there will be less people catching it who are more at risk of becoming a fatality.

I had been feeling very depressed a week or two ago - spontaneously bursting into tears all day - but for the past few days I've been feeling much more optimistic. Slightly less so today - though that's more to do with my personal circumstances - but I'm still seeing that light at the end of the tunnel.

There's a feeling of easing back into normality, not just here but in most of Europe. And no signs - yet - of the dreaded 'wave' everyone on MN has been grimly warning us about. Of course, it's still early days and who knows what things will be like in 3 or 4 months time, but for the first time in a while, I'm cautiously optimistic.

I should add that the comments by the Italian doctor have been widely debunked. The 'weaker strain' thing would be great but there's really not much evidence for it. Instead, I hope that we will have a vaccine by the end of the year - the Oxford team seem very optimistic, and there are about 100 other vaccine projects in development - as well as other treatment options and strategies to mitigate the spread of the virus. Of course, if Covid were to just burn itself out, that would be even better!

I’m not sure op, doctors in other countries, Ie the USA etc and even here (although our government poo pooed it) have all now said the same thing, it’s becoming weaker, so it’s not just italy.

I don’t know though if it’s because the people now catching it are younger and healthier, but that doesn’t correlate to the spread being predominantly in nursing homes and hospitals.

The evidence would of course be the increase in cases and the decrease in hospital admissions, which is what we are seeing across the world.

Or, in Churchill's words:

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."

If you look at the overall case graph, then we're over the first exponential rise, but it looks like we're going into a second, albeit slower, but also exponential rise.
The deaths had been dropping off, although part of that is the countries that have been coming up, like Russia, are reporting suspiciously small death rates, but again, it's again at best, stabilising at around 4k deaths a day.
Places like Brazil and India, who when we were peaking had very few cases are rising rapidly, Brazil may be coming to their peak, but India is still rising. And they're both big countries. Iran is in their second wave.

Hopefully there won't be a big second (or third wave) but even without, daily cases worldwide are still rising, and I don't think we can think of it being the end until that is substantially dropping.

I'm in Italy and we certainly feel that we are at the beginning of the end.
The way the Italian doctor's observation has been interpreted here, is that anecdotally of course, people still contracting the virus don't seem to be falling as desperately ill by and large as people generally were 3 months ago. But obviously, that's just an anecdote.
Italy has been slowly but surely getting back to normal for about 4 weeks now and thus far, cases don't seem to be rising. The big test though will be in 2-3 weeks from now I suppose.

it looks like we're going into a second, albeit slower, but also exponential rise

It really doesn't.

@TheCanterburyWhales

I'm in Italy and we certainly feel that we are at the beginning of the end. The way the Italian doctor's observation has been interpreted here, is that anecdotally of course, people still contracting the virus don't seem to be falling as desperately ill by and large as people generally were 3 months ago. But obviously, that's just an anecdote. Italy has been slowly but surely getting back to normal for about 4 weeks now and thus far, cases don't seem to be rising. The big test though will be in 2-3 weeks from now I suppose.

If, as suspected, ‘superspreader’ events are responsible for 80% of transmissions, then I don’t think any country has returned to normal. By that I mean large, indoor social gatherings, with people in close proximity. If we can continue to hold off on those, then maybe there won’t be a spike on a comparable scale to the first.

I wished it was.going to end. My eldest son 12, went to the shop to get us milk etc. On his way down he saw 15 lads from his school all hanging out together. Couldn't believe it. Its things like this that will make us have another rise!

Trying to stay positive and optimistic that numbers will drop. I am expecting and hope by the time baby is due next Feb, things will have died down!

Popsicle that has been happening since the start of lockdown, teens hanging out together outside won't cause a rise.

A friend who is an ambulance call handler told us they were not getting any real number of covid calls any more. It’s all back to heart attacks and stabbings . This is in London.

Hopefully, but we have the morons going to sit on beaches in close contact and then the protesters, who from photos are mostly very close together and some of them are more susceptable to the virus.

Who knows, hopefully it is dying down. We are just carrying in pretty much as before, staying home

R rate is high where I live and NHS trust here is preparing for an even bigger peak thanks to all the arseholes coming in on day trips and people that think the rules re social distancing don’t apply to them .

Forgive me @Bluntness1000 but is the rise in cases vs admissions not due to more tests being undertaken? The way data recorded for admissions has stayed the same but more people than before are now being tested. We just don't know how many had it before because they weren't testing everyone.

Every time I read some semblance of positivity I burst into tears. The possibility is too much to consider. Too much of a disappointment if it doesn't work out.

Is there a government plan anymore? Is it to do more contact tracing and basically eradicate the virus like New Zealand?

@Binterested a little sad really when I read a post that says the ambulance service are back to stabbings and heart attacks and I am left with a glimmer of hope

Not everyone in hospital with Covid has been admitted for it.Routine testing is for all patients and some have no symptoms.

Feels like the start of the beginning of the end but who knows......

I thought some of you might like this news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-oxford-scientists-working-on-covid-19-vaccine-near-breakthrough-on-antibody-treatment-12002160
I know we used to have a 'good news' thread but it disappeared a long time ago, so might as well post it here.

I pray that it is the case. Viruses burn out eventually.

Forgive me @Bluntness1000 but is the rise in cases vs admissions not due to more tests being undertaken

Yes absolutely, but people are being tested, they have it and hospital admissions are dropping,

All the spikes people have predicted, bank holidays, beaches, VE Day, back to school, back to work, public transport, none of it as seen a dangerous spike and no second peak that would cause concern has been seen anywhere in the world.

It’s resulted in increased cases yes, but thankfully it’s not resulted in increased hospital admissions.

@Bluntness100 schools have only been back a week, it is too early to say if that has led to a spike.
M