UK case projections - what do we think?

[Duckfinger]

So I came across this link via worldometer it seems overwhelming positive.

covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

I suppose the question is how likely is it to be accurate - could we really be putting this behind us come August? Feel free to doom monger and tell me it's not. It's better to be prepared after all but it does give me a little bit of hope that schools will be full time in September and I won't have to pack up my job.

Thats very positive isn't it.

But (unless i've read it all wrong) based on all current restrictions staying in place until 4th August, which isn't happening.

Yes that was the bit I wasn't sure about, it seems to say they have taken into account easing measures but when you click on individual measures it appears that they haven't.
I'll be honest, being quite mathmatically minded I did my own calculations based on the average % drop in cases over the last 3 weeks and worked out we would be virus free by March 2021. That is just unbearable so I was looking for factors I hadn't taken into account when I found this and got a bit overexcited at the thought of it coming to an end before I would have to quit my job for childcare reasons.

In Scotland it is looking positive. Just 18 cases yesterday.
The last 3 Fridays were 143, 113 and 39. Definitely a good downward trend but just worried that the easing of restrictions will change this.