Health officials make last-minute plea to stop lockdown easing in England

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www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/health-officials-make-last-minute-plea-to-stop-lockdown-easing-happy-monday

Health officials make last-minute plea to stop lockdown easing in England

Royal College of Nursing also fears lifting of more restrictions on ‘happy Monday’ is too early

Senior public health officials have made a last-minute plea for ministers to scrap Monday’s easing of the coronavirus lockdown in England, warning the country is unprepared to deal with any surge in infection and that public resolve to take steps to limit transmisson has been eroded.

The Association of Directors of Public Health (ADPH) said new rules, including allowing groups of up to six people to meet outdoors and in private gardens, were “not supported by the science” and that pictures of crowded beaches and beauty spots over the weekend showed “the public is not keeping to social distancing as it was”.

Jeanelle de Gruchy, president of the ADPH, said her colleagues across England were “increasingly concerned that the government is misjudging the balance of risk between more social interaction and the risk of a resurgence of the virus, and is easing too many restrictions too quickly”.

They have called on ministers to postpone the easing of restrictions until more is known about the infection rate, the test-and-trace system is better established and public resolve to maintain physical distancing and hygiene can be reinforced.

“We have not spoken out in this way before,” De Gruchy said, “but we are concerned that if there is a spike it will be in our communities. We need to be confident we can get on top of it, and we are not confident yet.”

They are experimenting and feel that summer is the time to do it.

It does look and feel bad but they are hoping that a combination of no mass gatherings (ooops re the protest), lots of people working from home, limited use of public transport, people using common sense about social distancing and some herd immunity among the most likely to get it will keep r(t) at just below one. I am sceptical.

They figure that they can always lock down again. I think that, if they do, they will have to enforce it properly. I cannot see people voluntarily giving up their (limited) freedoms again.

I think this is very true. It is far harder to ease restrictions than it is to impose them. I am not seeing so much of the mass gatherings but that is probably because I dont go to the places where masses gather.

My DCs and DH have been working throughout as key workers so take a fairly pragmatic view. The nature of their work (three in supermarkets one in a lab) means that social distancing isnt possible. They wash hands a lot and wear gloves but dont generally wear masks.

The transmission rates outdoors is minimal. That's why we are allowed to outdoor spaces.

A clothes shop or electronics shop can enforce social distancing just as well as a chemist or supermarket. It will probably make supermarkets less crowded as people will be able to shop and browse elsewhere.

The NHS has coped. Even without using the nightingale hospitals. Lockdown was to protect the NHS. If the NHS can cope with the first waves, with the PPE, little knowledge of the virus and coming out of winter it can cope over the summer. We also now know how many weeks of lockdown it takes to suppress the R and the infrastructure of lockdown is in place.

The whole world will see waves of lockdown until a vaccine or cure happens. We do need to learn to live with it and follow the science but the science is evolving because it's a novel virus. And the science isn't just the virus, it's lockdown science and the impact lockdown has on mental health, the economy, children, students, families and everything. Even the science of reporting deaths and tracking excess deaths over a year or 2 years not a few months.

Everyone is free to make their own decisions about what they want to do now. No one has to go out.

Doris and Dom are back to herd immunity. Not one single fuck do they give about the weak and the vulnerable. They've had it now - so they feel invincible.

More fool the suckers who fall for it, frankly.

The public have decided lockdown is over

Many people decided it was over weeks ago, some never even complied on day 1. The police has been pathetically inept and made nothing but a token gesture to enforce it, hence why so many have been flouting the rules for weeks.

Most people were not going to stick with lock down for long when summer came. The infection rate around here is 0.40% hospitals are empty

80% of people got the virus before lock down from large INDOOR gathering, funerals, weddings etc. No walking outside

Everyone has a choice- if they choose to meet in groups closer than 2m then they might be at risk, however that is their own decision in a way.

People do need to take responsibility for themselves.

@Orangeblossom78

Everyone has a choice- if they choose to meet in groups closer than 2m then they might be at risk, however that is their own decision in a way.

People do need to take responsibility for themselves.

Absolutely, but what do you do when others get too close because they ignore the guidelines? You can take every precaution you can but there is always one selfish idiot who can undo all your precautions by suddenly getting too close.

There are far too many people who think they won't get it badly so are relaxing everything without a thought given to those it could make very ill. I don't understand such selfishness.

The moment they decided to let DC off the hook they destroyed this lockdown and any attempt at subsequent ones.

I am still being cautious because my children both have fairly severe asthma, but round here everyone is basically back to normal.

I agree with the scientists The issue being is it seems a high percentage of the British public cant think for themselves and risk assess. Also you have people still furloughed with nothing to do. Let's all congregate in one place in other groups, leave our rubbish for someone else and piss all over everywhere. I for one am carrying on, going to work, locals walks, one supermarket shop a week and now I can see a couple of friends/family in our gardens on days off. I would love to go for a walk elsewhere but the crowds have put me off.

I work in a hospital and although paediatrics which is not affected like adults. I do worry for a second peak very soon where we all have to be redeployed again. People complaining the NHS is shut, we've been very open and used private hospitals at my trust for urgent issues and cancer treatment. However if we are swamped by a second wave how can the NHS get all the other patients back in safely for outpatient/ regular treatment safely?

If more people catch Covid19 in hospital then of course the government will blame the NHS not their actions so the NHS can't really win can it? I really hope that no second peak happens I want normal life too, other countries are managing their numbers and tracing systems and that's the key but ours is just about starting and we are already releasing lockdown.

public resolve to maintain physical distancing and hygiene can be reinforced

How exactly are they going to do this? We have been in lockdown for over 2 months. They stated at the start they knew the public couldn't keep it up for long - and they're not.

I've always washed my hands as have many people I imagine, and I keep a 2m distance as I am told to. I haven't visited a beach.

But I am wholly fucked off with the entire thing and it's beginning to feel like some sort of cruel joke. People will start losing their livelihoods. Their jobs. Their houses. Their children will go hungry. Life expectancy will decline. The NHS won't be able to offer as good of a standard of care as it does now.

They do have to take the economy into account because it goes hand in hand with the health service.

They also have to take into account people's mental state because the longer this goes on the more likely there will be a massive mental health crisis. We are not designed to live like this.

Unfortunately Corona deaths are not the be all and end all. It's is an enormous balancing act.

Well I am going to the beach this morning. We are going to a quiet beach for an early dog walk. We may even have an ice cream. All outside. It’s the first time I have been since before lockdown started. Given I was in the car on Thursday because it was safer to accept a lift to the hospital rather than two buses and two trains, I think it’s fairly safe.

I have a friend over later. I have bleached the garden chairs, the toilet in case she needs it. If she wants a drink she can take a mug and spoon from the dishwasher, where I haven't touched it since yesterday. There is bleach spray available, gloves and hand gel.

It’s as safe as I can make it.

... maybe wearing face masks in public isn't such a bad idea after all. Psychologically, people will be reminded that the virus is still out there....

I'm not sure what people want to do, or what they think the purpose of lockdown. Of course there is going to be a second wave, it's inevitable. Lockdown doesn't eradicate the virus, it's just a tool to slow the spread, both to avoid overwhelming hospitals and also to buy time to understand the virus better, work out the most effective treatment protocols etc. It's always going to spread a bit more again as we open up. Better for that to happen now across summer, given every single winter lots of our chronically underfunded hospitals run out of beds and there's reports in the news of patients in trolleys in corridors or even on the floor. Staying locked down into summer so the inevitable second wave hits at the point hospitals are often overwhelmed anyway would be dumb. Better people get it now (because more people are going to get it no matter what) when they can have the best chance of good treatment. Plus right now people are likely to generally be happy to meet outside. Not so much when it's colder. People who are vulnerable should risk assess and stay more locked down if they feel that's less risky for them.

Don't get me wrong I'm pretty scared of this virus and as far as I know I'm fairly low risk. But I think it's been lost that lockdown was never to stop the virus. It's not the case that we just shelter until it goes away. It's not ever going away now.

I’m not sure letting people travel as far from home as they want before the phone app was established at all and tracking and tracing had been up and running for a short while, was the best idea. How can you track and trace lots of strangers to each other who got too close to each other 75 miles from home, hanging around in a town with a nice beach?

The only thing that makes sense is the government are either testing the waters or desperate for a second wave before the furlough ends in November.

"desperate for a second wave before the furlough ends in November"

It is quite possible that a second wave in the summer would be less disastrous than at other times of year.

But not right now. There is only a finite supply of intensivists and ICU specialist nurses. Without them, no matter who else you assign to the unit, it will not function well or safely. They have had the most unimaginably gruelling three months or more and need to have proper down time.

They won't get it if this goes straight back out of control

The government never wanted to lock down and purposefully put out messaging and ever looser rules that could be interpreted loosely by us all to do as we please so we’d start ending lockdown ourselves anyway.

Yet again they announced new rules for a Monday before a sunny weekend and too many took It as a sign to do what they like immediately. That was the plan.

The health officials are right to be concerned. Test and trace is woefully inadequate. We should have waited till it was ready.

Important to remember this and keep our anger focussed on gov not each other.

They want us to blame each other, to disagree over how we each interpreted rules, to argue about schools opening. Don’t give them what they want. Stick together and safe fellow mums.

Maybe Boris and Dom decided to 'out' his lockdown breakout so people would decide to ignore rules too. That way they can blame us when things get worse.

Transmission rate outdoors is lower not minimal. It’s been repeatedly shown Cheltenham and the Madrid match increased spread. Both outdoors.

I’m in Scotland ... we can meet 8 people not just 6

Scotland is 8 people from 2 households though, so less risk.

[quote BBCONEANDTWO]@AudacityOfHope Scotland is more or less out of lockdown already anyway - all food shops have been opened and also the likes of PoundStretchers, B&M Bargains and now KFC is opened for drive through and subway opened again.

Now we have 8 people can all meet and 'social distance' - can you imagine that in this heatwave - beers in the garden and 'taps aff' no way will everyone be socially distancing. The whole of the UK never really had a strict lockdown in the first place.

Also - businesses do need to re-open or the whole country will be bankrupt and we'll not even be able to afford to feed our country.[/quote]
I did think lockdown and social distancing would be out the window in Scotland this weekend but that honestly wasn't my experience. I live in a city centre and when I went to local shops everyone was still queuing and distancing. Took a walk to the local park and riverside at different points at the weekend and, whilst they were busy, people largely appeared to be in small groups distancing from others. There were obviously a couple of large groups making no effort to distance from each other but they didn't move in to anyone else's space and at no point did I feel my space was compromised. Also went to my brother's house for a BBQ. Took the car and roads were quiet. He stays in a brand new build estate and back gardens still don't have fences between, as much as the houses are all occupied. Only a few had people in and none were garden parties or large "taps aff" gatherings. Our five person BBQ was the largest gathering of them all. You're never going to get everyone to follow all the rules but it did feel like most people were being sensible and not completely ignoring the fact the virus is still around.

I agree with ChasingRainbows19. Total catastrophe has been avoided by a superhuman effort of NHS workers, but they need a break now and to deal with the routine treatments that were cancelled. Who has capacity to deal with a potential second wave?

People who behave irresponsibly and then get covid, are exposing health professionals/caters to high viral loads. Really unfair.

People who behave irresponsibly and then get covid, are exposing health professionals/caters to high viral loads. Really unfair.

They're exposing everyone else around them too - the shopworkers they buy stuff from, their elderly/vulnerable relatives, etc.

Yes I should have said that - needless exposure for everyone. Much higher for ITU staff though