What are the chances of a second wave ?

[Ipadipod]

Just that really, people are talking about a second wave with lots now not adhering to social distancing, most people back at work from tomorrow etc.
What are the real chances of a surge in new cases and deaths ?

Maybe we've all had it anyway.

With numbers with antibodies at 7%?

Ok... probably imminent doom

I think we’ll get the second wave in the autumn. People will continue to mix, but they will be inside, then it will really spread.

Maybe one day we'll develop a vaccine against stupidity. There's a pandemic of that

And one for hypocrisy too.

it was as busy as the old days....

You mean 3 months ago?

At this stage honestly nobody can accurately predict if and when. Unfortunately it’s all guesswork.

My guess is it'll be December, January, February. Only guesswork. Hopefully I'm wrong.

How do they know that only 7% of them population have had it?

"How do they know that only 7% of them population have had it?"

They don't. There has been representative sampling by researchers (see threads passim about letters arriving out of the blue asking if addressee (or their DC) will be tested), and they estimate rates from that.

The figure that stuck in my mind was 17% for London, lower elsewhere.

So that's over 80% of the population with no immunity. If that study is broadly correct

Second wave this summer, third wave in winter.

I think the late autumn, winter is the next danger point. During the summer I think most people will socialise outside which will limit transmission. As the weather turns, and people start thinking about Christmas, the risk of transmission increases. Of course this is the worse possible time as it coincides with cold and flu as well.

On the other hand, I don't think it will spread as quickly as it did in February/March as we will still have less social contact and so less opportunity for the virus to spread. I'm pretty sure the shops will still be limiting capacity/have the 2m rule and perspex screens etc, hand washing will remain common place, some will still be WFH and people will generally be more aware.

Second wave seems to have begun in Iran: Iran has a population of 81M compared to the UKs 67M and has had approximately 7.500 deaths compared to the UK's 39,000. They may still be in phase one.

Dammit... meant to show the first line as a quote..

Iran is a very big country and this 'wave' is in specific regions which weren't hard hit the first time. So it may not be another 'wave' so much as a localised peak. Also, even the Iranians admit that their figures are not very reliable.