Anyone think that if there is a second wave, we won't be locking down again?

[NutellaOnButteryToast]

Hi,

I remember BoJo and Matt Hancock insisting that if they had to tighten the restrictions again, then they would not hesitate, even though it would shatter the economy.

I feel like their approach has changed.

Anyone else?...

I think there will be pockets of lockdowns in a few areas if needed.

I think if there is a second peak within the first wave then yes we will lockdown again maybe localised as suggested above. I don't think they would have a choice.

If there is a true second wave (a completely new wave of infection after months of extremely low/no cases) then no I don't think it will I think they will attempt to minimize reporting and pass it off as a bad flu season. For the sake of the economy.

I hope not. Here’s to local management.

I agree local management would be sensible and we have evidence from other countries that it is a manageable technique but I do wonder if our authorities are capable.

There’s a huge reluctance (seemingly) so far to take the lessons available from countries ahead of us that I can only put down to defiant ego. It’s frustrating.

There won't be a lockdown on the scale we've had because it's simply not affordable for the government. They are already easing things before the death rate has dropped significantly. As everyone, including the government has said, it will be local lockdown and probably little support for this affected.

It will be local lockdowns if anything. The country can't afford another full scale lockdown.

Second, third and so on, waves have always been planned for from the start, by all governments, it was explained at the very first daily briefings. Rolling lockdowns

There is no cure. There is no guaranteed immunity. No vaccine and might never be one.

Lockdowns are to prevent health services being overwhelmed all at once

There may be small pockets of local lockdowns but it will not be economically viable to have another full lockdown.

It's hard to say, I think in some area's restrictions will rise at times, but unless it gets really bad I don't think it will be a nation wide thing. But your guess is as good as mine!

Probably hot spot lockdown nothing further

I think it will be local lockdowns if anything. Which it should have been anyway, but as always everything is based on the south east

I think we will but with different guidance about work. I think once shops are open they will stay open, the lockdown would apply to meeting friends and family and frequency/distance to exercise.

They will want to keep the economy going so any rollback will be to elements that have a limited impact on that.

That's why I think people need to be careful right now and obey the social distancing and meet up limits to prevent an increase in numbers.

Definitely no lockdown like the one we're emerging from. Maybe localised, but tbh I'm sceptical of them doing much of that either

I don't think so unless it gets so out of control that they have to bow to public pressure.
How are people catching it? The most useful question the press have asked in a while!
As time goes on we are learning so much more about the virus.
Also medicine trials and experience of how and when to treat will be improving all the time too.

Changed in what way? Has there ever been a suggestion of a second prolonged national lockdown? I can't see that happening, local solutions are most likely going forward, isn't that what they're saying now

Probably not, kind of seems like he wants us all to die now. He's probably bored of lockdown

Yes, I can imagine local tightenings rather than a complete national lockdown again.

I don't think we could take another, economically or emotionally speaking, but if the virus becomes out of control again and track and trace isn't the success we'd have hoped, then surely it's the only way we'd get things back under control.

Unless, of course, they suddenly stop reporting the actual figures, because the economy couldn't take another hit and they decide to go down the "ignorance is bliss" route.

I actually think there will be more lockdowns. There's been lots of investments being made that suggest the government is planning for the long haul (laptops for poor students, new hospitals, ... certain civil service departments being told they will work from home for the foreseeable future). And the British public doesn't seem too good at sticking to mild social distancing rules. So yeah, I expect new peaks, and new lockdowns (after all it was the original plan, once they realised herd immunity was bonkers... and it would be hard to shrug off all the extra deaths)

Yes I think there will be another lockdown with a second wave. Companies will be more prepared and schools will be able to go more full-time online I think. This is if there is a second wave.

Believe will be more localised lockdowns and only whole country if lots hospitals become overwhelmed etc but hopefully it won't come to that

Also very much depends on what else we learn about the virus , still a lot we don't know yet

I think the next danger point is the winter. At the moment we can take advantage of the nice weather to ensure social interaction is outside and therefore much lower risk. People are happy to queue outside shops in the sunshine. People are meeting friends in parks and gardens. I think people will be less likely to do all this when the weather turns bad.

On the other hand, I think there will still be less social interaction so the number of opportunities for the virus to spread will be limited compared to in February/March.

We have to ask ourselves why we didn't do local lockdowns this time. They did in Italy.

Was it because all the people in the local area fled to other areas?

I think local lockdown would only work if an area was quarantined, and that could be a big ask for a city like London.

Figures will start to rise in autumn, kids will be back at school in September despite unease at numbers, lockdown again by October.

They're building more Nightingale hospitals. They've eased lockdown because they lack authority and need to distract from the Cummings shitshow, not because the figures indicate that the time is right.

Any lockdown will be a last resort. This one was a last resort, they waited as long as they could. It would take the NHS being completely swamped which could well happen in winter. That's why they want the second peak now IMO before winter and before the end of furlough.