So, what happens if/when the R-number goes back up?

[CallmeAngelina]

With the increased socialisation reported everywhere, and wider opening of schools and shops and so forth next week, it's more than possible the R number will increase to over 1.
Then what?
Will schools shut down again? A stricter lockdown be re-imposed?
Will people comply to the same extent this time?
Or will it be a case of "Covid is here to stay. Deal with it?"

Number 5 has always been to avoid a second wave, it was qualified the day after the 5 tests were announced to include the “that doesn’t overwhelm the nhs” element.

You can look back through the slides for every briefing online.

They did talk about the R value at length yesterday. As I say, I don’t necessarily agree fully with all of their assessments but they did discuss the points.

The trouble is DC and his stupidity have taken all the time on PMQ recently and not enough time has been spent discussing the finer details of the lockdown easing, and specifics of how the rising of the R number will be dealt with.

Even if they do impose another national lockdown (and I don’t think they will) then people won’t follow it anywhere near like the first one.

This is the reason they didn’t lockdown because they knew they only had a shirt window in which to do it where people would obide.

It’s been long enough and there’s still no end I’m sight to get back normality. We’re all having to live with the way things are for months to come.

I think there would be riots if they tried another national lockdown. Like it or loathe it, people will not put the lives of strangers above the current needs of their own families.. such as their own well being, their children’s education, the fact they don’t want to lose their job or home. I think people have had enough.

Reason they didn’t lockdown earlier I mean

The annoying thing is an earlier lockdown would have been far more effective.

Yes strict lockdown again and them lifted a bit and then strict again and so on. This was always the plan. Not sure why people don't understand it. It was explained months ago.

I don't think we can afford another blanket lockdown now though, this one went on for longer and cost more than they expected.

There are a few things they'll try first anyway:

Mandatory mask wearing in all indoor public places.

Implementing track and trace with random spot checks and penalties for people who refuse to isolate (but hopefully also access to financial support for people who can't afford to isolate)

Travel restrictions EG need to apply for a permit to travel further than 10 miles (personally think we should have something like this already)

I don’t think they give a shit tbh.

A second wave will come and it will just be herd immunity. They won’t close anything.

A couple of weeks ago, the majority wanted the lockdown to go on longer.

But Bojo has unlocked too soon.

I agree it has been a couple of weeks too soon, just as starting lockdown here was a couple of weeks too late.
I get why everyone wants schools open more widely, but I think it is a serious mistake - well, for those poor sods like my colleagues and mewhose LAs/MATs haven't agreed to defer and who've got to just get on with it regardless of safety.

I don't think they'll close schools again easily. I think there would have to be specific large outbreaks centred around schools for that to happen. I suspect they'll just tinker with the edges EG more mask wearing, parents not allowed on site and socially distanced queueing, increased cleaning.

Closing schools has caused a lot of stress for a lot of people and I hope once they're fully open there'll be a big push to keep them that way.

If the R number does go up, test and trace will close the schools again, "they" won't need to make an official decision on it, schools in the worst affected areas will close through lack of staff.

Surely all we've really done is push it back to where we were in January infection wise. As we have seen by various news reports, photos, etc people in general and particularly British people don't seem to be able to socially distance. If we are where we were numbers wise in January then surely with lockdown being lifted we will just end up back in lockdown in a couple of months again as the numbers go up.

On a personal level, continue to practice social distancing, work from home if you can, don't send your child to school. Continue to be as vigilant as before because the risk is at least as high

I expect it will be higher :(

@ToffeeYoghurt 'thousands arriving daily from highly infected countries like Sweden and Brazil'. I don't think so. Where is your evidence for this? Especially as there are few flights, virtually no tourism world wide and all the hotels are closed.

@TimeWastingButFun

The trouble is DC and his stupidity have taken all the time on PMQ recently and not enough time has been spent discussing the finer details of the lockdown easing, and specifics of how the rising of the R number will be dealt with.

One might be almost be forgiven for concluding it was all planned by Cummings. Perhaps it was he who oh so conveniently timed leaked to the press. At the same time that it was reported our death rate is one of the highest in the world.

Then again it's on the media to prioritise what they focus on.

A poster on another thread gave a good explanation of how a lower r rate in a largely populated area is more of an infection risk to the people living there than a higher r rate in a sparsely populated or more spread out area.

With people commuting in from elsewhere in the UK and Heathrow wide open -including daily flights from Sweden and Brazil - and passengers heading off onto the tube unquarantined, London remains highly vulnerable.

@longearedbat
The government confirmed at least 95,000 (note, 'at least') people have arrived at UK airports, mostly Heathrow, over the last two months. That was several weeks ago. Many thousands more have arrived since then. Of the 95,000 known arrivals, around 53,000 were British citizens. Almost half therefore were visiting from abroad for whatever reason. Regardless of their nationality - British or not, they all should've been checked and quarantined.

Check out Heathrow's website or flight tracker sites. You will see flights from Sweden and Brazil included.

Many countries implemented checks and proper quarantine (i.e. no travel from the airport on public transport). We didn't.

It was announced on the lunchtime news that South Korea have had to shut over 200 schools again just a couple of weeks after re-opening due to a spike in Covid cases.