Minimal risk of Covid19 outside and 2 metres apart...?

[JackJackIncredible]

I’m trying to get my head around the realistic risk of a person meeting another person outside and being 2m apart.
Some of what I’ve read suggests the chance of 2 people having a chat in the park or garden is virtually negligible.
I’m shielding but struggling with my mental health. I won’t put myself at unnecessary risk but my understanding is that outside and 2m apart, the risk is beyond tiny.
Thank you.

But you can now have a larger group meeting outside 2 metres apart from each other. Outdoors is safer than indoors as particles are dispersed in the air. UV probably helps kill the virus too.

Thanks but shielded people are not meant to be doing this. I’d be ‘breaking’ shielding by meeting someone.

If you're shielding then you could sit further apart and still talk. Could they come to you and talk from 3 or 4 metres to take even more risk out of it?. I have dropped shopping off my mum and then she sat at her front door and I was further up the path near the pavement and had a chat from a distance (she is shielding too)

The advice is not to do it if you are shielding, but it is now law. If you are happy to take the risk you're entirely within your rights to do it, but it may be inadvisable.

I think its conflicting advice as some people with large groups of friends and family will be eager to meet up with several family and friends groups of 6 people and will eagerly do so in quick succession thus upping the risk.
Tonight on FB I have heard of several people talking about getting together with various groups of 6 comprising of family and friends at various points this weekend. Yet it isn’t even supposed to come into play until Monday.
I am vulnerable health wise and no doubt MIL in her early 80’s will be demanding we make the 2.5 hour journey to see her in her this weekend or next. But how is that going to work a 5 hour round trip plus a visit without a toilet. But if her friends start to see their family then she won’t want to be left out.

The advice here is no mileage restriction but not further than you could manage a return to home for the toilet...

I think sitting a distance away from someone outside is as close to risk free as possible. Shielding is likely to continue for a while so I'd just be using your common sense.

You are right, the risk is beyond tiny, I was thinking about this today, all the shielding people have got to be fine to go outdoors now.

Yor mH is important too

You might find this summary by a USA epidemiologist useful (and comforting). I did. Her findings indicate that exposure with duration of 15mins plus (she thinks much longer) is required - exacerbated by actions such as singing/shouting. Or air con carrying the droplets downwind in an enclosed space such as a restaurant to nearby tables.
www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them
I feel better on my walks and at the supermarket now.

There is at least one known transmission outside from 2 people talking (face to face). The risk is reduced if you are side to side (or back to back). If you are shielding but decide to take the risk of meeting someone outside, you can minimise the risk further by sitting side by side 2m away and/or further than 2m away.

@goingoverground

There is at least one known transmission outside from 2 people talking (face to face). The risk is reduced if you are side to side (or back to back). If you are shielding but decide to take the risk of meeting someone outside, you can minimise the risk further by sitting side by side 2m away and/or further than 2m away.

Exactly, 1 out of how many billions of such interactions over the past 10 plus weeks, that supports the tinyness of the risk

Thanks for your thoughts. :) I think I’d feel a bit happier if I could have one visitor in my garden as long as we are at least 2 metres apart, maybe further. Shielding has mostly been ok but I’m beginning to struggle.

Could you sit behind a window while they are outside? Not sure if that would be helpful for you but the risk would be zero.

Exactly, 1 out of how many billions of such interactions over the past 10 plus weeks, that supports the tinyness of the risk

Yes but no, @TerrapinStation. Generally we don't know where and when transmission occurred so you can't conclude too much from knowing that one transmission occurred through conversation outside other than it is possible. There are 2 elements of risk - whether the person you are with is infectious and the risk of transmission if they are.

Given that the OP is shielding and we know that transmission is possible through conversation outside but the risk can be minimised further by positioning yourselves at distance and in a position where you are less likely to be breathing in the other person's breath, it's foolish for her not to take those extra, simple precautions.

I think sitting a distance away from someone outside is as close to risk free as possible. Shielding is likely to continue for a while so I'd just be using your common sense.

I know of someone who is very high risk, she has had people visit in her garden while she sits at the window with it cracked open so they can chat. The risk is close to zero.

@goingoverground Do you have a link to the information about the transmission between two people talking face to face outside? In particular, I'm interested in whether they were standing at a normal (ie less than 2 metre) distance from each other or whether they were social distancing but the person was still infected.

Sorry, I can't find it @LilyPond2. It was in a meta-analysis of papers on transmission outside. It did state that there was no information on how far apart the 2 people were though so I can kind of answer your question...

Exactly, 1 out of how many billions of such interactions over the past 10 plus weeks, that supports the tinyness of the risk

I would imagine there have been dramatically fewer conversations held between people less than two metres apart since lockdown. I haven’t had any apart from with my own immediate family and I’m not shielded or at any particular risk...I’m also not especially anxious either.

Exactly, 1 out of how many billions of such interactions over the past 10 plus weeks, that supports the tinyness of the risk

No it was one outbreak case out of the 318 cases that the study looked at. www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1.full.pdf

But yes, it does support the idea that the risk of transmission outdoors, at distance, is considerably lower.

@JackJackIncredible I have talked to a friend both on phones while we sat on opposite sides of a closed window. Felt a bit US prison visit at first but was much better than Facetime.