A quarter of care home residents in London died in 2 months

[effingterrified]

twitter.com/Gill_Livingston/status/1265599413726195713

Important & shocking. A quarter of care home residents in London died in 2 months. 200%+ mortality increase. 40% residents infected.

This is horrifying.

It’s horrendous

It's horrifying but it is important to note this study covers four nursing homes in London, not all nursing homes.

You have to bear in mind that a lot of people in nursing homes are about to die. Yes, there will be people with dementia who are resident for many years but also a lot who are living out their last few months and have been sent after a hospital stay.

This is clickbait. It's on about 4 nursing homes. Nothing like all the nursing homes in the whole of London. Very sad yes, but very misleading

pickachew but not the stats the OP has posted say 200%+ increase so that accounts for and supercedes those that were going to die anyway. If the stats quoted are correct it is an appaling state of affairs. The government must have known what it was doing.

London had the three worst affected areas in the country as rates per bed - Hammersmith and Fulham, Southwark & Tower Hamlets with 14.7%, 11.8%, & 10.2% of residents dying of covid-19. That's from CQC/ONS data up until May 15th and was 170 deaths between the three (66/68/36).

Leeds, Sheffield & County Durham have greatest number in total, all over 200 in the same period :(

That's a very misleading title. The study looks at 4 care homes, not all of them in London. Tragic, but it doesn't suggest that this was mirrored across all of London care homes. According to the ONS, London has had 1,654 COVID deaths in care homes, against a population of around 35,000. So around a 5% death rate (obviously this is likely to be clustered, so some homes will have seen no impact and some far more).

Where are your stats from, Patricia?

There is no reason to believe these 4 care homes were atypical.

Oh it's you massively overinflating COVID deaths and risks again. What a surprise. And no, i'm not a Tory bot before you say it as I know that's your default position when people point out how inaccurate you are.

There's so much more we need to know.

For it to actually give some information, we need to know how & why these 4 care homes were picked.

We need to know what their practises were compared to others. Very difficult because they aren't going to admit if they had poor practices.

You would also need to know what type of care home they were, what the average age of residents, medical conditions etc.

Because right now, that could simply mean these 4 homes were terrible at handling the situation. Or it could mean one home didn't really do anything.

You would also need to do a separate study of other care homes to compare.

It also needs to be peer reviewed.

There is no reason to believe these 4 care homes were atypical.

From what I can see, there's no reason to think they weren't.

But its early. Maybe I missed something.

If you want to know more, Trev, you could try reading the link.

BeingonFB - did you actually have a point to make or just a desperate ad hominem?

If you have a reasoned argument to make, make it. If you don't like my posts, don't read them. Problem solved.

www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/deathsinvolvingcovid19inthecaresectorenglandandwales/deathsoccurringupto1may2020andregisteredupto9may2020provisional&ved=2ahUKEwi54IGe4NXpAhWNRBUIHWKcAqMQFjACegQIBhAO&usg=AOvVaw1_7JlBUcxNGw_qHNm1sgqb

ONS stats above. London care home deaths are the highest in England but roughly 4.7 deaths per 100 care home beds so roughly 1 in 20 or 5%.

I did read the link.

I can see where it says its not peer reviewed.

I can not see the detail I mentioned, or where that detail is verified.

Thats why I said i may have missed where it is. If I hadn't look, I can't miss something, can I?

I would have just not read it

I think you should ask MNHQ to change your title OP.

The problem is that it is a cluster sample not a random sample. In reality it is saying that in care homes in which the coronavirus enters (and is not contained) there is a high mortality. We know that it is highly contagious and a care home is a closed community. It is not the same as saying that 40% of people in care homes in London as a whole die. As the community rate of infection decreases the likelihood of entry of the virus decreases. Increasingly people are cared for in the community for as long as possible so the people in care homes are all fairly ill unless with dementia.

It is still useful work and highlights the benefits of keeping the virus out, as hard as that might be for the staff, residents and the prospective visitors. In terms of a sample though it is like saying that it is a sample of 4, as once there is entry to the home the chance of each resident catching it will substantially increase compared to the population of care homes in general.