Why is the PM saying he will open shops, schools etc, almost back to normal, when the 5 tests have not been met?

[5TestsNotMet]

Ignoring the Cummings saga, which is clearly taking up all the headlines, and which will likely lead to reduced adherence to the current rules, why on earth is Johnson proposing to virtually end the lockdown in just 3 weeks?

Of the 5 tests he said would have to be met first, none of them could really be claimed to have been met.

This seems a guaranteed way to have a massive second wave.

I really hope I'm wrong - but all other countries which are successfully ending lockdown without a second wave are countries which HAVE met those tests, eg. Germany, Ireland, Denmark. We can't realistically compare ourselves to these countries when we have the highest death rate in Europe.

We should not be ending lockdown when ANY of these 5 tests remain unmet:

1. making sure the NHS can cope and continues to have sufficient capacity across the UK - not the case in eg Somerset at the moment.
2. a ‘sustained and consistent’ fall in daily deaths - in some parts of the UK they are not showing sustained falls. And recent changes to rules may soon show up in a rise in the overall death rate, it's too early to say.
3. solid data showing the rate of infection is decreasing to ‘manageable’ levels across the board - ditto to number 2.
4. ensuring that supply of tests and personal protective equipment (PPE) can meet future demand - this is still not the case. And opening up schools and workplaces will require vastly more PPE to be safe - where is this coming from? Testing numbers are still tiny compared to the total population.
5. be confident that they will avoid a second peak that would risk overwhelming the NHS - with 1-4 not fully met, a second peak seems inevitable.

It's hard to escape the idea that Johnson is using the Cummings saga to bring forward ending the lockdown - which polls showed the British public wanted to stay - as a way of returning to his preferred 'herd immunity' (ie culling the elderly and vulnerable) strategy.

Let's not forget that far more people died in the second wave of the 1918-19 flu pandemic -
due to lifting lockdowns too early - than died in the first wave. It is too early to be complacent.

TerrapinStation - are we in a very different world?

Mask wearing is still not widespread, testing is still not widely available despite claims to the contrary eg people are still being released from hospitals without being tested, public transport is still crowded.

Codswabble. We need to start easing out of lockdown or the damage to the economy will be far greater than the risk of covid 19. Lockdown (not that it was full lockdown anyway) was never intended to last for too long. Just to enable us to manage the spread and therefore be able to manage the need for hospital care. We have done that now.

Social distancing measures will keep R in check ENOUGH to continue to manage all of the above.

I think the timing is right.

Sorry but it’s starting to really annoy me when I keep reading that ‘schools are opening.’ They are opening up but it’s so far from normal and there are so many restrictions in place that many many children are not going back (my year 1 child included, not because of the virus itself but because I don’t want to send them into that environment) In fact the latest letter from the school was encouraging us not to send the kids in because they don’t have the capacity to take them all. I really don’t see a way forward for the schools.
I can totally see the government sending all year groups back in a few weeks and congratulating themselves on getting the schools back in so now people can work when in actual fact they have just put the schools in an impossible position that is completely unworkable and unsustainable.

The timing would have been right if test/track/trace had not been delayed.

the govt announcement yesterday about shops reopening was precisely designed to move the headlines away from the Cummings story. It hasn’t really worked

@effingterrified I mean regarding busses. Only a few people I know were furloughed, most work in town centre and rely on busses to get home and go to work. However the bus service here has been massively reduced and it has been cramped for years anyways. Pre covid it would still take up to an hour to get on a bus with a pram or a wheelchair.

Schools aren't really opening though are they. A few kids in a few year groups will be able to go back for a few hours for a few weeks. Most won't.
People in England are allowed to drive to exercise and meet one other person.The rest of the UK is not allowed to do this yet.
Some shops will be able to open. But who the hell is so desperate to start spending that they're going to shuffle through a one way system around Primark?

It's, as usual, a half assed lame attempt at satisfying the general public. Who can then be held to blame when it all goes wrong again. Let's all agree not to fall for it.

I think the only reason shops and things are opening is to pump money back into the economy. It's nothing to do with it being safe.

I also think it's going to cause a massive second wave.