Numbers up today

[ShirleyB25]

Just looked at the numbers from the Worldometer site, and UK deaths and new cases are up quite a bit from yesterday

Not sure how significant this is - I'm hoping it's a blip.

[itsgettingweird]

Yes 80k people is about 10-12k more people tested in total compared to the past weeks average.
Even the day they did 177k tests they actually tested less people than when they did 126k.

Don't forget they are doing lots of tests to confirm reliability and are now testing anyone who requests one as well as the other wider programme. That statistic alone isn't enough to give a picture but just part of a picture.

The sage meeting and cobr meeting documents with all the scientific input has been published today. Well worth a read to get some great insights. Especially the art of how they only expected certain levels of compliance anyway so all their decisions are based on this not including total compliance.

[Tfoot75]

They estimate there are 61,000 new cases per week, only getting c20000 positive tests per week so an increase in positive tests is just because the criteria has increased only the other day. Also number of individuals tested has increased today as a pp said.

Its only the random survey that really means anything, as it will include both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases, and that has decreased this week from 0.27% estimated to 0.25% estimated.

That's the only measure that gives us a true idea of active cases increasing or decreasing, not daily cases and definitely not daily deaths which relate to infections several weeks away (and often, the death occurred days or weeks ago anyway)

[SistemaAddict]

Remember back when there were 5 cases or when the first person died ? It seemed so scary back then and now we seem so desensitised to it. So many people don't seem to care anyMore and are ignoring the advice and carrying on as normally as they can. With half term I can only see numbers go back up especially once schools reopen next month, assuming they do.

[ShirleyB25]

@Bercows - I hear what you're saying - exactly.

It's like - we've all had enough of the frickin' lockdown - let's just crack on regardless. I'm in two minds - one saying - yes - let's get on with it.

The other mind is 'whoa' there are still a lot of new cases and deaths, and consequently ICU beds being taken up.

[JustStayHome]

And they are going to be SO MUCH WORSE in 2-4 weeks time when all the idiots who have been out at the beach this week start catching it.

[Sockwomble]

"Surely if everyone has locked down fully then we would not be seeing 3000 new cases though?"

My sister who works on a covid ward and her partner have only just got it as have several others she works with.

[peajotter]

The only number that is up significantly is the positives test results. This is 40% or so “pillar 1” I.e. hospital and 60% community. The rise could easily just be more tests sent out in the past few days.

Test results have been unhelpful as a tracker since they massively increased testing a few weeks ago. Obviously if you test more people you will record more cases. The “pillar 1” test results would be a useful tracker as they are hospital tests but I can’t find the data.

[IgnoranceIsStrength]

The point I was trying to make was that surely we shouldn't still be seeing so many positive results. That really it should only be people unfortunately having to work in covid environments that are getting infected. That we should be seeing a significant reduction in cases in the general community. But the consistently high numbers would lead me to believe that there is still significant community transmission

[Fairineouf]

Today's reported figure was 3287 with 2615 yesterday an increase of 672.

IgnoranceIsStrength - to put it into perspective, on 31 March there were 3252 reported new cases found from 8240 reported tests.

Today there were 3287 reported cases found from 80,297 reported new people tested (total tests 140,497).

Just a snapshot of where we are today. Tomorrow will be different, but for now the trend is down.

[lilgreen]

We’ve been testing high figures since the end of April but positives have been decreasing until today.

[TerrapinStation]

The mismatch between when a home test is counted as a test and when a positive result IIs counted is bound to muddy the waters when making day to day comparison.

Tests sent out on Fri/Sat/Sun for a start won't even be processed until the following week and there's no set timescale to send them back.

[Newjez]

If the extra tests are testing NHS and other essential services, then this isn't going to make comparisons with past weeks invalid.

[Fairineouf]

30 April figures for comparison - positive tests 6,032. New people tested 54,575.

The figures will always be up and down which is why the seven-day trend figures are more useful.

TerrapinStation - agreed - hoping the 20 minute tests turn out to be reliable as this should give a much more accurate figure of where we are.

[StitchInLime]

You’re better off looking at week by week trends. We are absolutely seeing a downward trend in all areas, most importantly deaths and hospital admissions.

At the peak of the pandemic, the worst fatality figure recorded on a Friday was 1152. Today it's 351. Previous Fridays - 384, 626, 739, 1005, 935, 1152.

For the first time since lockdown began, the number of people seriously ill with Coronavirus has fallen below 10,000.

This is all still sad to read but there is a clear downward trend.

[lilgreen]

Numbers up again!

[lilgreen]

New cases.

[porktangle]

Today is 2959 which is lower than yesterday.

Why do you sound so excited.....?

[Derbygerbil]

They’re down from 3,287 yesterday.

[lilgreen]

Oh I’m mistaken. Good, I’m glad. Not excited at all. Worried. Want my DD to be able to return to uni in September so watching closely as so many are flouting the rules now.

[Baaaahhhhh]

With the roll out of testing to the care home community this is hardly surprising. Most positive tests are now from care homes and hospitals, not the community. Most deaths are now from care homes, not hospitals. Care homes are still our issue, and again not surprising, when you have the most at risk all locked up with one another.

[beachdays123]

This graph on the PHE dashboard shows lab confirmed cases clearly going down by the date specimen was taken...