VE Day spike

[stuckindoors77]

Today is two weeks since the VE Day celebrations which seem to have got quite out of hand (from accounts on here, Facebook and in the news) are people still expecting there to be a spike in the numbers of cases today? If the predicted spike doesn't come do you think that will have an impact on the next lockdown easing move?

I'm really crossing my fingers for no sudden spike (numbers have been better all week) and that will eventually mean small groups are allowed to meet out of doors.

What do you think?

No, I wasn't expecting one in the first place.
If there was going to be one it would be showing up by now in positive tests and hospital admissions, but it hasn't.

I think it would take another week or so to show in hospital admissions. If there's no sudden increase in a week then VE day will appear to have been ok.

I think there would have been an increase in the number of positive cases already if there was going to be a spike.

Yes 5 days for cases, 2 weeks for hospital admissions. If there was to be a spike, which there hasn't been.

I am not sure that hospital admissions would actually be reported by today - and maybe not a spike but an increase in numbers over a 4-5 day period compared with the week before as different people will end up in hospital at different times rather than just on day 14. I do hope that we don’t see a spike to give us confidence that socialising in this SD way works.

Low risk for catching it outdoors, bearing in mind you'd have to also be with people who actually had it and were asymptomatic in the first place.
Very few will have taken massive risks, so a small increase is unlikely to be significant enough to show up. It has also coincided with more people returning to work, needing public transport etc.

I don't really know why people think there will be a spike when there doesn't appear to be much community transmission at the moment and most of the celebrations that I saw (bearing in mind that I don't know a single person who participated in any kind of celebration) were outside and lower risk. If people had been going in to hospitals and care homes and dancing with sick people then yes, there may be a spike but I don't think that happened!

It was a few pics on the media and a few posters. Even then assuming that said people had been following the rules up to then it's most likely contact between people that don't have it!

Will be good if there is no spike. Might make people less nervous.

Would the "rule breakers" actually request a test though?

All the evidence points to outdoors reducing the risk of transmission. I think recent studies are showing that surface transmission is also relatively rare.

I don't think the VE day celebrations would cause any more transmission than people going about their usual business of shopping or work if they're working outside of the home.

Most people who were celebrating were outdoors, and most were making a stab at social distancing - especially when you bare in mind the WHO advice is 1 metre rather than 2 metres.

Would the 'rule breakers' request a test though?
Sure they would if they were ill enough. They'd be tested anyway if they showed up in hospital.
We'll know for certain over the next few days though.

Figure 19 shows an uptick in hospital admissions in the NW here, flatlining elsewhere...
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/886864/Weekly_National_COVID19_Surveillance_w21_FINAL.pdf

I think many people don't realise you can request a test now, and it has only been what..a couple of days (?) since they rolled it out to everyone over five. Then there is the wait for results. I am not sure we,d be seeing a spike yet, particularly since the more noticeable spike would be from the people the VE Day partiers go on to infect.

That said, not sure there enough mixing to cause a noticeable spike. It's hard to know because a few out of control street parties make the news or get spoken of on here, but how many was it really? IRL I didn't see or hear of anyone breaking the distancing rules.

Bear in mind it's taking up to 7 days for results from tests too.

Yes I agree, I think we're unlikely to see a spike in positive cases just yet because of incubation period and time for test results to be reported on.
The biggest increase will likely be caused when one family member brings it home to the other people they live with and I think it's more likely to come from work places/public transport. It would be interesting to know what increase there has been in people being back at work since the change to guidelines.

Despite the scaremongering there was never going to be a spike.

Most people in the community don't have Coronavirus so there was a very tiny chance it would spread at VE day party's.

NW here. Hospital still busy with covid patients.
Lots on the holding wards as well.

My local thursday night pan banger, who had a large gathering on her front lawn until one oclock in the morning now has a 'we are self isolating' poster in her window,

@HeresMe . Our ward had an influx of patients from the community. Not all nh either.
The ward was then shut as nearly every one admitted was positive.
Neighbours have died who aren't key workers .
So yes people in the community do have covid.

@drinkingwineoutofamug
I'm nurse in NW and our hospital are not full, capacity is just like a normal mo th

#month

Neighbours have died who aren't key workers .
So yes people in the community do have covid.

I didnt say no people in the community, I said most people, and that is a fact most people don't have covid.

Yes a spike might come in the next week. But I actually suspect it's not going to.

I think this Corona is actually behaving differently to what all the experts predicted. I think they've got it wrong.

I admit I have no medical knowledge at all. So I'm not one to predict!! But I think it is contagious, but in a different way! I actually think kids going back to school will be ok. I think people having bbq's and parties will be ok.

I actually think that only a small % of the UK population has had it. I'm sure I haven't. I actually kind of think/wish I could! Aren't we all supposed to get it? Hopefully mildly? I don't know anyone who has had it. No one I know, has lost anyone. Which is good. But also kind of bad. When exactly am I going to get it?

I do seriously wonder how and when I'm going to get it?

I'm one of those wierd people who is never ill. Neither are my ds's. They both have almost 100% attendance for their whole school lives. Very odd.

I haven't had a cold for years. 4 or 5 years ago I had a chest infection and was off work for a few days. Other than that I haven't had a day off in about 15 years.

So how will I get it? From work? A friend? Will I be very ill?