Is there any point continuing the lockdown if no one is socially distancing?

[Notcontent]

I was in full support of the lockdown and in fact withdrew my dd from school a few days before schools closed. And I have been very diligent about complying with it. However, now that many of the rules have been relaxed, it feels like floodgates have opened and no one is bothering to comply.

I went for a run after work today and ran past two local parks. Both parks were heaving with people having picnics in large groups, children playing together, etc. It felt like a bank holiday weekend, rather than a Tuesday during a pandemic. Lots of people are also having parties and inviting friends over.

I know it’s complicated, but I am just a bit fed up, as the current situation may result in me losing my job (due to the economic impact) and is having other adverse impacts on my life, yet here all these people are having a jolly time, enjoying the fact that they don’t have to be at work. Sorry, just had to get that off my chest...

Yanbu to feel frustrated op. My neighbours have regular busy parties and my family (all live 5 hours away but we catch up by FaceTime) have been very open with us about how they are back to normal now, in and out of each other's houses etc.

I'm trying so hard to do the right thing and I do often feel like what's the point now.

OP, you don't see all the people who are social distancing!

Maybe they are people who have front line jobs- supermarkets, NHS workers and people who are sure they've had it - all relaxed outdoors because it's lower risk than most of the places they go.

And you don't need to immobilise the whole population to hugely reduce the rate of spread. Even containing 25% of the population has a big impact. There's a great graphic from the early days that demonstrates it.

@Poppy146 when it's many, many people - all sat very close together - I think you can safely assume they're not all from the same household.

And you don't need to immobilise the whole population to hugely reduce the rate of spread. Even containing 25% of the population has a big impact. There's a great graphic from the early days that demonstrates it.

^^this!

It still works even without 100% compliance. In fact I've read that compliance has been higher than expected. Just because some people are breaking lockdown doesn't mean we all might as well.

So the reasoning is that Ferguson broke the rules because he had had the virus and therefore immune. Does that mean everyone else who has had it can also break the rules?
Why do we have a 2 metre social distance rules, when the WHO recommendation is for 1 metre?
When the lockdown started, I only went for a short walk around my local park as exercise (takes about 5 mins, as it is a very small park)
Frankly, I was surprised to discover relatives were going for 20 mile cycle rides and 10 mile walks from the start. Consequently, the very slight relaxation in rules a week ago, made no difference to them.

1 metre distance reduces spread, but 2 metres reduces it more. Plus, whatever distance you name, people will go closer.

And there was never a limit on the length of the run or walk 🤷‍♀️

I haven’t noticed a relaxation of social distancing in my village

I think some people are very much ‘if nobody is social distancing then I won’t either’ so i dont think threads and comments on social media along the lines of ‘nobody is social distancing anymore’ are very helpful

• For example - Neil Ferguson was wrong to breach SD rules because (as BigChoc) pointed out its not effective to have two sets of rules.

But it wasn't because he didn't think it was highly contagious or that it isn't dangerous, it's because he is immune (at least for a while) having already had COVID and recovered.*

At the point Ferguson did what he did, it wasn't known that having recovered from it gave immunity. In fact the medical advisors said this in the press conference on the day he hit the headlines.

I haven't watched anything to do with this virus for over a week on TV, so don't know if they have now decided it does.

Regarding Mr Ferguson's thinking on what he did, I wouldn't rule out anything.

I sort of feel the same OP as people round here have clearly decided that social distancing no longer applies and it's all one big holiday, but we have decided that regardless of what other people do, and whether lockdown is relaxed/lifted or not (we are in Wales) we will continue to stay home as much as possible for the next few months, unless DH is able to work (s/e) or I get told to go back to the office. I figure we can't control what anyone else does but we can do the best we can do to keep ourselves safe and stop the spread.

I get the 'why should I bother no-one else is' mindset, I really do, and I think everyone has to make a judgment for themselves based on their personal circumstances, but at the same time I think it would be daft to take risks with your health and potentially increase the spread and the strain on the NHS just 'because everyone else is'.

People are still adhering to it where I live, I'm hoping it a minority that are not

I've been going to my mum's with ds. Had enough tbh.

People are still socially distancing in my town. I was out yesterday in the afternoon and it was like a ghost town. Everyone still moves over to allow other people space and queues up properly to get into shops.
Yes, I have seen a few larger groups out, I just assume they're larger families. I was one of a family of seven and we all lived at home until we were at least 18, so if we'd gone out as a family we would probably have been viewed as a large group.

I agree with you OP. When people start breaking the lockdown for social activities, we get the worst of both worlds, ie transmission still occurring but we're getting the economic pain as well.

At this point I'd say lockdown should end so everyone can go back to work.

Most people where we are appear to be adhering to SD and looking at the parked cars wfh too. We are and will continue to do so for as long as possible. The more that do, the better for those who have to go to work.

Everyone around here is still following the rules. And meeting up outside is so much safer than meeting inside.
But do what you've got to do.

IMO most people are still social distancing. Some not but some didn't anyway but most, yes.

It’s all about the stats. 1 metre is probably safe. 2 metres is safer. Staying at home altogether is safest but carries its own risks and burdens other people with delivering your food etc. 100% of the population adhering to all rules perfectly is best, but 90% is fantastic, 75% will cut transmission massively and even 25% compliance will still make a noticeable difference.

OP you need to look around you at all the people queuing 2ish meters apart, dodging into the road to get past each other, out jogging in the park precisely because they’re not sweating over the machines in a basement gym. When I run through our busy local park, I shrug at the guys having a kickabout, smile at the tennis players and the friends carefully sitting on opposite sides of a picnic rug with a tin of G&T each. The group of what looks like three mums and 6 kids playing together is far from ideal but it doesn’t make everybody else’s efforts a waste of time. It all makes a difference to the R even if it’s not perfect, and it all keeps the numbers down while we get better at treating, testing, tracking and eventually vaccinating.

As for Neil Ferguson, he made a judgement call based on the available information that he’d “probably” had the virus and he was “probably” immune. He was probably correct in that but he still should have stayed home.

If I find myself on a deserted motorway at 4am I might judge that I’m alert, I know the road, I’m a good driver with a good car with good brakes, I’m in a hurry, so where’s the harm in doing 120mph? I’d probably be correct in my gamble that I’d be absolutely fine and get home in one piece much quicker but I’d still be found guilty if I were caught, and for very good reasons. And if I were the government chief road safety officer I’d be sacked.

I have two very young kids and have really struggled with the lockdown. I hate it and I've never felt so low. But I complied with all the restrictions. Still am. And then I drove through my town high street to the tesco the other day and saw lots of people out and about, standing at the bus stops and queueing outside places like wilko. Thing is that 80% of these people looked to be 60+, and in supermarkets the people I've seen shopping in couples have always been middle aged +. It seems round here it's the older generation ignoring the guidance.

So now I've decided I'm going to meet up with a friend this week (outside), its not technically allowed as we will be taking toddlers too, but my family and hers are low risk, and the kids are less likely to transmit it /get it. The number of cases around here is also minimal.

I think it's time for lockdown to end/ be further loosened (with the exception of gatherings like nightclubs etc) because the damage to the economy is now outweighing the benefits to health.

I'd start with schools going back and holiday clubs being told they can run over the summer.

I was all for lockdown initially (I think it came too late) but we can't all stay at home for ever.

But most of the population are social distancing.

We cannot relax measures to meet what the minority are doing. That really would cause a worse second peak. We've already had a horrific death toll from this.

I agree some people are more relaxed. I've noticed even just walking down the road from my house to the farmland ds and I walk round everyday there are couples who walk hand in hand, down the middle, and make no attempt to move over single file when others are moving around them single file to one side of the pavement.

But this relies on the majority of the population respecting the rules. Which I think they are.

Platform what are you talking about? There's never been any rule preventing '60+' people from going shopping, or to use buses if they need to. There's never been a rule preventing Wilco from opening, as long as they can maintain social distancing.
It's up to each shop to decide whether they allow people in pairs. They just have to make sure they count them as two shoppers.

China had about 2 weeks of virtually zero new infections before reopening schools.

Ireland had just 50 new infections yesterday (equivalent to the UK having about 800, as opposed to 2400 it actually had) but isn't reopening schools.

Anyone sending kids back when new infections are still in the 1000s has got an absolute screw loose IMO. But yes, thats the government we voted for and their very particular set of advising scientists.

Cam I think it depends on schools. Ours has done an amazing RA and I think pupils and staff will be safer there than a local supermarket!

News at Ten reported last night that infections are up again in Italy already, just a week after loosening restrictions.
I was surprised they relaxed things so much, so quickly after the horrors they went through. Really hope it doesn’t prove to have been a serious mistake.