Covid-19 mainly a nosocomial disease?

[Mumlove5]

Do you think it’s possible? This article from the guardian suggests that up to 20% of hospital patients Covid-19 caught it at hospital. NHS England figures reveal some infections were passed on by hospital staff unaware they had virus.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/17/hospital-patients-england-coronavirus-covid-19

My guess is that it could even be more? Also, half of covid-19th deaths are from Care homes, according to the WHO.

www.euronews.com/2020/04/17/coronavirus-care-homes-could-be-where-over-half-of-europe-s-covid-19-deaths-occur-says-new

If you read, meeting 18, items 6 and 7. Basically, it admits that they knew, by March 20th, that the majority of new ICU cases were coming from within the hospitals themselves, from in-patients being infected by medical staff and other patients. They were not coming from outside.

www.gov.uk/government/groups/scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies-sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response

A copied post, but he does have a good point:

But my particular hobby horse is nailed in minutes of meeting 18, items 6 and 7. Basically, it admits that they knew, by March 20th, that the majority of new ICU cases were coming from within the hospitals themselves, from in-patients being infected by medical staff and other patients. They were not coming from outside.

This is almost entirely a nosocomial disease. Nearly all the deaths have arisen from infections passed around in hospitals and care homes; almost none in the general community. All they had to do was protect hospital in-patients and care home inmates and we wouldn’t have had an epidemic. Probably why there are virtually no deaths in Africa and definitely the reason for so few deaths in Japan – they protect their elderly.

Bluntly, this is an almighty fuck-up by PHE and NHS: they allowed the virus to get into hospitals early doors and then panicked and made the situation even worse by sending a whole load of infected patients into care homes. 80-90% of deaths are going to turn out to be people who were already in a hospital or care home, but it is being covered up because NHS/PHE don’t want to admit that they actually caused the problem. They have killed a lot of people.

This is the answer; it explains everything. It explains the different death tolls between countries; it explains why countries with high death tolls have so many who had pre-existing conditions; it explains why there is so little correlation between lock-downs and death tolls; it explains differing fatality rates; it explains Sweden and Germany; it explains why the outbreaks die out relatively quickly regardless. In the general community, like MRSA, it is pretty harmless, but if you get it into hospitals and medical facilities it runs riot and kills people. Did we learn nothing from Florence Nightingale?

What do you do with a disease that only kills really old and ill people? Keep it out of hospitals and care homes…

• “I’ve had a brief look myself and the minutes he’s referring to aren’t quite the smoking gun he imagines. Items six and seven in the minutes of meeting 18 read as follows:

The current doubling time may higher than expected in the longer term, if there is appreciable nosocomial transmission resulting in high prevalence in health care workers and a greater risk of transmission to vulnerable patients.

If the current ICU demand is being driven largely by nosocomial transmission and increased transmission to vulnerable patients and this process is separate from transmission in the general population then it will not be influenced in the short-term by current measures.
It sounds like the boffins on SAGE were discussing the possibility that COVID-19 is “driven largely be nosocomial transmission” rather than stating it as a bald fact. Nonetheless, if that does become the settled consensus about how the virus is passed on – and everything we’re discovering about transmission is trending in that direction – my banker friend is right about the authorities’ response being “an almighty fuck up”. And questions will need to be asked about why this possibility was considered, and apparently rejected, by SAGE.”

Obviously care home residents not there for a number of reasons.

My mum caught it in hospital when she was being treated for endocarditis & pneumonia.

The staff told her it was very likely she caught it from them.

Nurses were being moved from the coronary care ward to the covid ward when it was short staffed , and then back to coronary care .

It was petrifying.

That is awful Eyes.

"up to 20%" is not "mainly"

There were all those business trips from Wuhan to various countries,
All those ski trips
Then came ordinary community spread

With all epidemics, there are obviously people who catch the disease in hospital
People catch all sorts of other bugs in hospital, e.g. CD

One unusual problem with COVID is that people are infectious for several days before symptoms appear
So staff or other patients can unknowingly affect others

So can someone in the supermarket

and yes, Dr Birx has ruined her reputation by keeping quiet during Trump's dangerous ravings about bleach etc

Care home inmates?! They're not prisoners. The word you are looking for is residents.

Scientists have found that there is high transmission when crowds of people are together for hours
especially talking loudly, singing, breathing heavily from dancing etc

So that's care homes, hospitals, some offices, factories, airports, cruise ships , church choirs ...

Schools are less of a worry imo, since so few children get serious symptoms

Carnivals were major early infection epicentres in Germany

Currently in Germany (where I live) infections in the community are very low
So the new infections are in care homes, or in meat processing factories,
because they are the main remaining places where lots of people are in close proximity for many hours.

Inkpaperstars that is pretty accurate to what I’ve seen in ICU - 50ish male BAME key workers, maybe a bit of hypertension, nothing seriously wrong with them prior to admission. Definitely caught in the community, via their work (bus driver, shop worker, care worker, delivery driver).

There’s a lot of focus on who is dying, and rightly so, but people forget that there is another whole chunk of patients who are very seriously ill. They aren’t dying, but they aren’t getting better either - some of them have been in ICU for 6 weeks at this point. They look like they are getting better, and then they relapse again. Boris was spectacularly lucky to get out in 3 days.

There’s a lot of focus on who is dying, and rightly so, but people forget that there is another whole chunk of patients who are very seriously ill. They aren’t dying, but they aren’t getting better either - some of them have been in ICU for 6 weeks at this point. They look like they are getting better, and then they relapse again. Boris was spectacularly lucky to get out in 3 days.

That's really worrying Christmas and you are right, it has really gone under the radar of public attention so far. One of the doctors who treated Boris came out and said he feared covid would be this generation's polio (paraphrasing) in terms of long term recovery issues. After reading what you say, I wonder if he wanted to make people realise that Boris wasn't necessarily typical.