If London really is almost free of CV?

[Ihavechildren]

Doesn't that mean the majority of the population must have had it? If not, there would still be new cases, especially as transport etc becomes busier.

So, doesn't that support the herd immunity theory and suggest lockdown was unnecessary?

It probably burned through the whole population in March

I’m pretty sure I had it in January.
Been working this whole time (NHS) and haven’t been ill since January.

There's no chance the majority of London has had it; or that London will soon be free of it. We'll shortly see a surge of cases due to the events of the past week - mark my words.

Apparently, it was rife in dcs school a few months ago. One member of staff tested positive and quite a lot of the staff and kids had been off for fever and flu symptoms including my dc. No one else in my family got ill though so I don’t know if it was covid 19 or some other flu bug. Id like to think it was covid but it was probably something else.

It would be really good news if most Londoners had had it and CV actually turned out to be a lot milder than thought. I'm doubtful though. I guess an antibody test will tell us soon.

There will be a second wave. I really wish it had just gone away and that the majority were immune. It’s impossible.

CV being a lot less dangerous than thought would be the best news I could possibly hope for, even better news that a vaccine available tomorrow imo. Shame on you OP! These threads get my hopes up too much

Latest news I read is that they have seen a rise in cases in London again (BBC news this morning).

Up to the week beginning 1 May, there had been around 7,000 COVID deaths in London. Multiple studies have estimated the mortality rate of this disease as around 0.5%, in which case approximately 1.4 million Londoners have had it, out of a population of about 9 million.

Surely the mortality rate must vary considerably based on the age of the population, as very few people under 40 have died? London has a young population.

Yes, London has a younger demographic than the country as a whole.

They don’t have enough real time data to know for sure unfortunately

Lots of Londoners are still working at home. We need to wait and see. I would like to think there's a high proportion have had it, but I worry that a lot had a bad tonsillitis bug (definitely one of those in March) and only think they're immune. The antibody testing results will be very interesting, even if immunity is only for a couple of years it buys time.

What's also possible is that Covid-19 is seasonal like flu, rubella, measles etc etc. So it may burn hardest through Spring and return in the Spring, or it might be humidity and temperature based so waiting for Autumn.

It'll come back when things open up - just like it has elsewhere. #BeAlert

Thing is people aren’t currently traveling to London for work, as more people start going back to work, back to London the virus starts traveling too

This would be great news if true however I don't think it is :(

I'm in London and (touch wood) we haven't had it, and neither have any of our friends nearby. I only know 1 family that have, and they live in Sheffield!

Based on large antibody tests in Spain, France, Lomabady and New York, and the number of deaths in London, it seems very unlikely that most Londoners have had it unfortunately, probably no more than 10%.

I expect there are discrete population groups though in London.... Key workers who would have been much more exposed - it’s possible they and their families will have had far higher levels of infection than those who have hunkered down. Once the ‘locked-down’ part of the population emerges, the virus will have more of an opportunity to spread once more.

Yes, that's my feeling Derby. The virus may well have run its course in the part of the population that has been out and about but there are a lot more about to come back into circulation.

Unless it was here much earlier than thought.

We live in London, in one of the worst hit boroughs originally. We had the virus in March, DH was hospitalised. Apart from him and one friend (both in hospital, both tested) I only know a handful of people with suspected cases. Sadly I don't think London is a safe place yet.

Surely the mortality rate must vary considerably based on the age of the population, as very few people under 40 have died? London has a young population.

OK, we can adjust for that. 28% of London are over the age of 50, compared to 37% of the general population. So multiplying by 1.33 gives a revised estimate of 1.9 million Londoners infected.