I'm finding the reaction to covid utterly bizarre

[TheDailyCarbuncle]

If anyone had told me that healthy, fit people would willingly put their livelihoods at risk and deny their children an education for months on end, that they would send the country into recession putting healthcare, education and public services at risk for years and years to come to avoid getting a disease that had a very very small chance of killing them I wouldn't have believed it. If you'd said people would be afraid to talk to their healthy siblings I wouldn't have believed it.

I had measles in the 1980s as small child - the vaccination programme where I lived was slow to get off the ground - and it nearly killed me. In 1980 2.6 million people worldwide died of measles, a very large proportion of them children. No one ever considered a lockdown, it was never even suggested.

I think all the analysis of this situation in the coming years won't be about the pandemic, but about the contagion of fear that made people so terrified of something that wasn't a real threat to them that they created huge, long-lasting, in some cases devastating problems for themselves, problems that were nothing to do with their virus and everything to do with their reaction to the virus.

I agree with you OP

Sweden has a much lighter lockdown and no surge of deaths. They are actual living proof that lockdown of the scale we had isn't necessary.

And yet we've had a huge number of deaths, despite locking down - so Sweden's outcome is irrelevant.

"Lockdown will kill people. It already has killed people."

Do elaborate. And compare it to lives saved.

And I'm still waiting for you to translate % to numbers.

People. Once something reaches mass hysteria level, logic flies out of the window

I agree. The cost to our economy and deaths from mental health, other diseases going undiagnosed/untreated etc scares me much more than CV19 does now.

HainaultViaNewburyPark

Thank you for responding. As I said I am always open to evidence that is not hearsay or opinion. Can you direct those of us, without perhaps the indepth understanding, to evidence that the lockdown and government responses are wrong. I don't mindlessly believe government propaganda, I have a close friend who is a professor in microbiology studying viruses etc. He so far doesn't think the response is too ott, not saying he agrees it was done well or it is all great, but doesn't believe we should all just go back to daily life yet. But I am aware different research throws up new information all the time.

Lockdown was a method of buying enough time to put in place the Nightingale hospitals and build up PPE for a sustained infection rate over the next 18 months. All credit to the UK that there has been greater compliance than anticipated and the curve has been flattened. Critical care has not been overwhelmed and although our death rate has been high there are plenty of recovered patients who may not have made it if lockdown hadn’t happened.
Mistakes have been made regarding shielding of the elderly and some deaths could not have been predicted in the very small number of people who had no underlying health problems. This is not the fault of the government or NHS but the result of Covid-19 being a brand new disease with no known cure. Care is still basically support.
There are still plenty of diseases active in our populations globally that have no known cure that probably kill just as many people annually, but as the op states we haven’t reacted in such an extreme way before. Flu kills hundreds of thousands every year, we have a vaccine but for many vulnerable it is often not effective. We don’t shut down the universe for Dec, Jan and Feb every year to save these lives. It often overwhelms the NHS but we don’t build temp critical care units in 10 days to help out. We accept that the deaths are inevitable in the vulnerable group and calmly deal with it as we have done for hundreds of years.
This hysteria is media fed and I am fed up of hearing the idiotic views and questions they raise day after day.
The human race is not going to die out due to Covid but it may well die out through lack of common sense and risk aversion.
I hope the biggest enquiry will be into the presses handling or mishandling of the pandemic!

I agree with you in principle, but there is a part of me that thinks that no society/ political leaders would deliberately wreck a working economy. That's a clear suicide act. There must be something that we are not told. I believe it has to do with mutations, but I am not a virologist. So it's just wild speculation.

"1.25 million people die each and every year in car crashes, we don't ban cars but doesn't mean we shouldn't or could 't"

If you crash your car, you kill yourself and maybe a handful of others. Hardly comparable to a virus with an R of about 3.

@TheDailyCarbuncle

The Swedes are fully expecting to experience the exact same number of deaths they would have with a lockdown, they've just take the pragmatic view that if people are going to die anyway, you might as well keep your economy going full-tilt regardless.

This is why I'm saying that it's far too early to be making any judgements about our own lockdown right now, because the priimary purpose wasn't to save lives.

Look at this again in May 2021, look at the UK's overall death total then, and you'll have a far better picture of whether our half-arsed lockdown was worth it, whether we didn't go anywhere near far enough, or whether in fact that Sweden was correct and that lockdown in any form was pointless.

I said this in another thread, but from the government's perspective, lockdown is certainly not pointless if it means 250,000 deaths spread over 12 months and a functional NHS, versus 250,000 deaths in a two or three month period and a completely dysfunctional NHS. Aside from the human element, the latter would completely shred any credibility and confidence in both the PM and his party.

@TheDailyCarbuncle

Yours is the best OP I have read on here since the Covid business all started. I couldn't agree more.

@Redwinestillfine it kills virtually no young, fit people. That's a selection bias, those deaths are the only ones reported on. So pretty much every under 40 that has died is in the papers.

But there was a measles vaccine in the 1980’s. You’re comparing chalk and cheese there. This is a completely unknown new disease. Scientists and epidemiologists have advised the lockdown. I’m not particularly terrified of the virus infecting me or my family, I’m 99% certain that we would have it mildly (if we haven’t had it already) but I can recognise it’s a serious public health issue. If left to run it’s course many people will die, not just elderly (not that their lives are less meaningful than those of younger people).

I'm also not sure why people are so keen to compare us with Sweden and claim that's some sort of proof that the UK's lockdown wasn't necessary.

Both countries took completely different approaches right from the very beginning. It's a false equivalence to claim that low death rates in Sweden prove the UK's lockdown wasn't necessary. All it shows is that Sweden has managed to keep relative control over virus spread without a lockdown. It says nothing about the situation in the UK

You're comparing apples with oranges essentially.

Totally totally agree...it is utter madness!!!! If no underlying medical conditions then the chances of death is so low and as there is capacity in hospitals then if it's going to kill you it will, it's a time thing. I believe the indirect deaths from lockdown/prolonging this longer than absolutely necessary will potentially be higher. Not saying I'm going around licking things or anything, I am following guidelines but I am not scared to have it.

"We don’t shut down the universe for Dec, Jan and Feb every year to save these lives. It often overwhelms the NHS but we don’t build temp critical care units in 10 days to help out. We accept that the deaths are inevitable in the vulnerable group and calmly deal with it as we have done for hundreds of years."

Because we have herd immunity and vaccinations against familiar strains of flu, suppressing infections and deaths manageable.

A completely new virus, completely unfamiliar to the human race, will have a far worse impact.

I really don't fear for myself. I'm leaving the house for permitted reasons and going to work every day too throughput.

But the ignorance is truly scary I think. And every one acting like they're enlightened and clever, and seeing the truth better than the fools following the lockdown guidance.

Pity China didn’t lock down before it spread. Pity all the countries it spread to didn’t lock down hard and fast.

If R0 can be brought easily below 1 (it clearly can) the virus could have been eradicates, as SARS was. It’s a mess now.

@rawlikesushi

Deaths from domestic violence have more than doubled since lockdown started.

The deaths from cancers that are currently going undiagnosed will probably be in their thousands.

But the real effect of lockdown will be in the next two years, with banks collapsing, mass unemployment and no money to run the NHS. There is no point in avoiding covid if the cost of that is that the rest of your life is totally wrecked.

I am absolutely with you OP. I've probably lost my job because of the fucking scare mongering . The job I've had for 20 years.

i'm concerned about covid as dh and i are both in vunerable catagories and older. i'm going to be worried and take care of myself as will dh.

My take is that there isn’t enough research carried out yet to make an informed decision as to whether this is a virus we can live with.

There are also the issues of long term implications - both lengthy recovery for some and the possibility of the lung damage causing life long disability.
There are reports of children developing Kawasaki disease, which is still being investigated.

It’s beyond frustrating to be in lockdown, and the economic fallout will be bad, but at this stage I’m not sure there is an alternative to what we’re doing.
At least that’s my take on it as someone who has chronic health issues that make me high risk.
I’ve found that those who take an approach that prioritises the economy and life getting back to normal are those lucky enough to be fit and healthy, and/or have a cavalier attitude towards at-risk relative’s lives.

@usernotknown Sympathies. I have lost mine (had it for 25 years before lockdown).