Is chickenpox as dangerous to children as coronavirus?

[BovvyDazz]

So I can’t decide whether to send my son back to nursery in June. I keep changing my mind. So I’m not evangelical one way or the other.

Been looking at some stats tonight. I’ll quote my sources as it’s Mumsnet:

There have been 12 deaths of under 19s of coronavirus; 3 of which with no underlying conditions in England.

How many cases, I don’t know as we didn’t test the majority of cases up till this week. +100,000 anyway.

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/05/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-14-May-2020-2.xlsx

Risk of chickenpox; approx 4 children die each year; with an approx case fatality rate of 2 out of 100,000 (slightly higher for under 4s; lower for over 5s).

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC59681/#!po=2.08333

So whilst there is a lot of unknowns (risk of the inflammatory condition of which one child has died to date in U.K. of), long term effects, and slightly higher risk to parents; for me it appears it’s not vastly greater than the risk of chickenpox, and must be less than the risk of child seriously hurt in a traffic accident in any given time period.

No one knows yet do they? We are in lockdown with no school so we dont know how many children have had it and what the long term implications are. Also, not all children get chickenpox every year, some are vaccinated in the UK which brings the figures down and most adults are immune. Covid is new so all kids who come into contact with it will get it without the lockdown and so will the adults so it will spread very quickly. Then, we wont be talking small numbers so the risk goes up for Kawasaki doesnt it?

There's a vaccine for chickenpox, which I imagine brings the risk of death down dramatically

Not all children get chickenpox each year no; but it does has a case fatality rate of approx 2 for children (much higher for adults...as with covid).
We don’t know actual case numbers of children in U.K but I’d say 500,000 is a conservative estimate (so case fatality of 2 including those children with underlying conditions); probably more than that given the lack of testing.

Children vaccinated won’t be included in the number of chicken pox cases though? So deaths per 100,000 cases for chickenpox will be only for unvaccinated children surely?

I think we can be confident chicken pox hospitalises far more kids than Covid.

It's not about the bloody kids 🤦🏻‍♀️ it's about them being carriers to the adults professionals and then therefore their family and the wider population.

It’s too soon to tell for sure.
There are cases of children developing Kawasaki disease following infection.
There’s also the risk that children can spread it back to vulnerable family members.

Covid19 can’t be compared to chicken pox as it’s a novel virus - no one knows yet about immunity or long term implications.

Have you considered the risk of your child catching the virus and infecting you? You should be factoring that into your calculations.

Here is a way to decide. Do you NEED to send him in order to be able to work?

Covid is such a new illness it's difficult to tell right now. They are just starting to see kids present with very severe / serious illnesses which they feel is related to Covid.
Very difficult to compare the risk rate for children with any illness at the moment , it's just not fully known yet .

It does make me mad that in the UK we happily send children to school unvaccinated for chicken pox when it kills Evey year. I have had my dds vaccinated as is routine in other countries.

My concerns are about the stats for teachers and parents (I’m vulnerable).

And you be honest I kept my kid off nursery aged one when chicken pox was going round because I was pregnant and also I didn’t want her to catch it at that age. She eventually caught it at pre school and sibling. Much less horrid then than as babies

See ... parents make individual decisions to suit their situation for all illnesses not just Covid

@CayrolBaaaskin I agree. I found out about the vaccine too late... it was very new then. It should be on the vaccine programme.

Totally agree chicken pox should be a scheduled vaccine.

I'm blown away that grown woman are actually comparing cp to the Corona virus!🤦‍♀️

@Mymomsbetterthanyomom ditto

I’m not comparing it at all, just replying to the question. There’s obviously a huge difference!

It is a bit bonkers

@CuppaZa - what’s the difference in health impacts on children them? If you’re the expert?

I don’t think anyone’s saying they are the same thing anyway. Just comparing our attitudes

@Cayrolbaaaskin the difference is we know close to bugger all about COVID19. You don’t have to be an expert to understand that.

I’m not saying there are a myriad things to think about for covid in terms of potential long term impact; but on the face of it; death rates for children are very very low (yes kawaski symptoms are a concern and there has been one death). There is also long term risks, unknown, in social isolation, and delaying treatment, and our public services being underfunded for decades due to an economic recession.
The stats for chickenpox deaths for unvaccinated adults are much worse; not dissimilar to covid. It’s the fact that coronavirus is a Nobel virus.

My husband and I are n a low risk group (30-40); I appreciate not everyone is in this position so I think every family have to take individual decisions.

My mum is better - how belittling. Why can we not use valid statistical sources to discuss risk? There may be a myriad of caviats, but I’m utterly bewildered by hysteria on this and any thoughts that navigating life is not full of risk assessments.

*novel virus sorry

We don't know how deadly Covid is to children, OP. No one does. Yet.

But based on the very limited information that you provided (12 Covid deaths in children in 3 months, v 4/year for chickenpox) Covid would appear to be 3x deadlier assuming no more children died this year. If we assume 12 deaths every 3 months, then it's 48/year. (None of these assumptions hold up to any kind of scrutiny btw.) That would make Covid 12x deadlier to children.

There’s vaccine for chicken pox. I vaccinated my children.
Many countries have it an part of their childhood immunisation program, but nhs doesnt as it’s not cost effective, as it has extremely low morbidity rate. We know so much about chicken pox and very little about covid that’s mutating. Chicken pox is not a mutating virus.
theres not enough data on covid 19 and children infection and death rates.

So many unknowns....

Best of; you’re totally right; the number of cases is such an unknown; anywhere say between 100,000 and 5m to date. With 12 deaths (3 with no underlying conditions).
So worst case, 12 out of 100,000; compared to chickenpox of 2 out of 100,0000. My money is in far more than 100,000 have had covid to date though; but who knows.
We could do the same comparison with child road deaths and it would show far more danger to children.
I think covid is utterly devastating and scary, I was desperate for the government to lock down in March and stopped sending my children to school the week before lockdown (partially as I was feeling fluey albeit no cough/fever). However I think the reality is I’ll send my children back when I’m allowed as the risk to them is extremely small (I am WFH at the moment but the children and are suffering from partial neglect).
Doesn’t mean I’m not very worried for my parents and grandparents; and think it’s an absolute travesty how the government hasn’t protected care homes.

"No one knows yet do they? We are in lockdown with no school so we dont know how many children have had it"

We do have a picture of the possible death rate, because we have large groups of children living together in different circumstances around the world. In other countries they have testing of everyone going on and we aren't seeing patterns of infection in children.

Alduts are dying without knowing what they've died from across India and Africa (particularly places like Nigeria), but we aren't seeing deaths or serious illness in children, in any number to be of particular concern. Likewise in refugee camps and migrant populations. It's still the same pattern of the over 70's being the victims.

I read the Lancet report on the 15 child deaths in New York. They were all from the BAME communities and all but one had nearly the double BMI that is normal for their age. The pictures of the younger people who are dying or having strokes, from the US show that they are generally Obese, if not morbidly obese. I watch the News channels across Sky and on one it showed a picture of one man who had died and said that he had no comorbidities, but his picture showed that he was morbidly obese. So did the family picture put up, he was the fourth member of the (very obese) family to die. Outside of the US that is a comorbidity.

But it's for everyone to calculate their own risk. My grandchildren are going back to school in June. I've been providing childcare because my DD is a key worker.