Some people want the death rate to go back up

[Rosebel]

Well looks like lockdown has ended. Went to the doctors today and saw 3 groups of teenagers together at least 5 per group and obviously no social distancing. Two men chatting over a gate, again no distance and next door having their grandchildren over.
It's exactly what I knew would happen. Measures relax slightly and people take the piss. I know people will say it's none of my business but actually it is.
First it's everyone's business because this is the reason we can't control the virus.
Secondly I had to go to the doctors for my health but at the same time deal with idiots who just don't care about putting others at risk.
If this is happening everywhere as I suspect don't worry about shops reopening or children going back to school as the death rate will shoot up again and we'll be back in lockdown.
Would love to know why people are so selfish, stupid and want to stay in lockdown forever?

Let others take the risks they want and if you're lucky you can just wait it out at home.

I didn’t say wait two weeks for hospitalization. Up to two weeks for someone to develop symptoms, tens days from them to require hospital (if they get sick enough)

Georgia opened three weeks ago. Florida beaches reopened three weeks ago as well.

Where are the cases? If hospitalizations don’t increase by the end of the week in these states, what will you say then?

The statistics are not as straightforward as you claim. There’s a lot we don’t know about how it spreads and just shrieking ‘wait two weeks’ (or, is it three weeks’ now?) isn’t going to work anymore.

Don’t forget there are a handful of states like Iowa and South Dakota which never locked down in the first place ... to a lot of criticism I might add but now they look smart.

Countries / states and populations are very different and suit different strategies:

Population density, average age, the proportion of single / multi-generation households, huggy / distanced culture, public compliance & trust with government advice, maybe Vitamin D levels,
the state being able / willing to support enough of the population financially to stay home so they don't starve or become homeless ......

For a country like Uganda, median age 17, it makes little sense to lockdown

For a US state with v low population density,
people probably would catch it rarely enough and slowly enough that it's not a problem

For a city like New York or London,
not locking down would probably have meant carnage

In the UK, the Chief Medical Officer looked at Italy in early March,
... and warned the government of a "reasonable worst case" of ½ million dead,
with 80% of the population getting it with a death rate of up to 1%

Of course no responsible government should ignore their CMO saying that
and of course the CMO had to warn them

Bartlet “ To be honest the people who want the rate to go up the most are people like you and your fellow doom “everyone’s gonna die” merchants so you can be justified in your COVID hysteria.”

I’m not given to hysteria. I have 3 vulnerable loved ones so have to take appropriate, pragmatic precautions.

Other people don’t, I’m very pleased about that.

Bit offensive to lump all justifiably concerned people together as hysterics.

Actually, having re-read that comment, you’re not talking about people like me because I most sincerely do not want the rate to go up!

So feel free to ignore me.

(Not everyone who is worried is hysterical though)

Social distancing appears to be maintained where i am, roads are definitely quieter than usual (I don’t know if they are busier than the start of lockdown, i assume yes)

No gangs of teenagers etc

Having said that a friend said that about half the customers in asda weren’t social distancing when she was last there and im sure if i really looked I could find people breaking lockdown (don’t know why I’d want to do that though)

But, we leave the house as little as possible and try and shop only once or twice a week for food

Obviously, my mother is at home, isolating.

@HelloToMyKitty

Look, it’s not my fault that your doomsday predictions for some US States haven’t come true. You said wait two weeks, well it’s been two weeks since Texas opened up (and Georgia and Florida opened even earlier iirc) and hospitalizations have not increased.

Maybe people in Texas can make their own risk assessments and live accordingly? Maybe the risk factors present in the UK and NYC aren’t present in Texas (much easier to social distance when you don’t live cheek to jowl).

I can’t speak for the UK and why it exploded. But data is noisy and you can’t just bleat ‘wait two weeks’ and ignore when the data isn’t going according to your predictions.

I would follow Nate Silver of 538 on Twitter for an unbiased look at the numbers.

“ Amid a record week for coronavirus cases and hospitalizations in the Houston area and across Texas, Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo said, "I'm growing increasingly concerned that we may be approaching the precipice — the precipices of a disaster." "We've had the highest hospitalisation number this Monday; it's only grown from there," she added. "The numbers we're seeing are very significant," she further said.”

Thoughts on these developments? Plenty of people like you who rubbished warnings when people Texas crowded into bars a month ago.

HelloToMyKitty

Nate Silver sent this tweet 8 hours ago. It doesn’t support your theory - particularly when you look at the newly reported cases.

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking:

Newly reported deaths
Today: 358
Yesterday: 695
One week ago (6/7): 460

Newly reported cases
T: 21K
Y: 25K
6/7: 19K

Newly reported tests
T: 485K
Y: 519K
6/7: 445K

Positive test rate
T: 4.4%
Y: 4.9%
6/7: 4.3%

@HelloToMyKitty

Care to make a reappearance?