The Phoney Graph

[venusandmars]

So yesterday UK government provided a 'helpful' graphic depicting the stages to relaxing social distancing (sorry I can't manage to copy it). It shows Rnought increase to 1 - the red phase - then decreasing thereafter. It has 3 stages with provisional dates. The first this week, the second on 1st June, the 3rd on 1st July.

BUT...
Rnought didn't increase to 1, it leapt up way, way higher, and it's taken drastic measures to get it now somewhere indefinable and unstable just below 1.
The graphic makes the assumption that more people returning to work and relaxing some social distancing measures now is going to result in a continued fall in Rnought; that starting to open schools and other shops in June will reduce it further, and that potentially allowing some cinemas, pubs and restaurants to open in July will continue the same trajectory.

Really???

Surely the opposite is more likely to happen. That's what they are seeing in other countries. What happened to following the science? The graphic seems like such a phoney piece of propaganda. Even if people followed the new rules exactly (which they won't) that trajectory of decreasing Rnought is never going to happen. Is it?

You mean this graph that means nothing?

R0 is roughly the gradient of the graph (with delays etc). The original graph posted shows the decline getting less steep after each relaxation of the rules.

So IF R0 is 0.7 now and changes to 0.8 after the rules are relaxed, and 0.9 the next time, this is what you’d expect to see. A graph with a long tail.

Of course the government are asking us all to take this on trust as they’re not publishing their advice. Just pseudo-science that’s been through the PR team. Nothing worse than a graph without labelled axis.

So IF R0 is 0.7 now and changes to 0.8 after the rules are relaxed, and 0.9 the next time, this is what you’d expect to see.

Except Johnson said R0 could be anywhere between 0.5 and 0.9 now, and didn't explain why we would have a better idea of this number in 3 weeks.

*I saw that graph on Facebook last night.

As far as I'm aware it is not an official govt approved graphic, it was done by an artist (who than said if anyone shard it would they link it to his artist page or something like that)*

@TheShoesa - it is in today's 60 page government document - couldn't see a credit to the artist

So IF R0 is 0.7 now and changes to 0.8 after the rules are relaxed, and 0.9 the next time, this is what you’d expect to see. A graph with a long tail. Thank you for explaining that (genuine) it helps.

However, Germany (whose data I trust much more than the stuff UK gov are plying us with) had R0 of 0.65, and it's now up to 1.1

That has got to be worrying...?

Yet I see so many people who look at the fake graphic and believe it to represent some truth "look we're over the hump, things are only going to get better and by July the bars and cinemas will be open". It's all spin...

"R0 is between 0.5 and 0.9"

So it's 0.9, then.

venusandmars

I commented a couple of posts later that I was clearly gullible as I'd believed what I'd read on facebook having not seen the Boris announcement. Feeling hugely embarassed now. Would delete if I could.

Sorry shoes no intention to do that. I'm just perplexed by the fake information we're being fed...