Government are waiting for a vaccine

[Biscuit0110]

It was always going to be a possibility, waiting for a vaccine, but one I did not believe, due to the length of time it will take, but it is gathering momentum now. Why do I think this?

Well the lockdown with a few variations looks likely to be staying in place over the whole summer, there was none of the big announcements that we were expecting to hear last night.
Apart from a few year groups heading back 'at some stage' to school, and the people that were always supposed to continue to work apparently - doing just that. There are no other big changes as far as I can see.

Then I started to see the universities are unlikely to open in September
thetab.com/uk/2020/03/27/unis-wont-even-be-back-to-normal-by-september-warns-expert-149741

Many now reporting this, and can we be sure secondary schools will reopen fully or even partially? I am not sure we can be sure of that at all.

So either we are all staying in lockdown indefinitely, which I find hard to believe, or there is a good chance that confidence is increasing that a vaccine will soon be here (but the government are unable to say categorically so they are keeping quiet)

Is there a plan to vaccinate before there is any real return to life? How feasible is that with 66 million of us, and how long will it take?

Boris speech was uncharacteristically gloomy, very far from his normal bouncy manner. What do you think?

Yes I noticed that about universities too. Keele University tweeted that following Boris Speech they were still not expecting students to return until 2021, which is in line with what you have said about waiting for a vaccine

I don't think they wish to get our hopes up, but unless we are truly never leaving the house again (and how feasible is that) then surely everything is pointing towards a fast tracked vaccine.

Feel for the young people!! This is not great for them at all, or their future prospects. They can't even take a gap year to make up for it.

That’s not how I interpreted it op,

Work places start back today,
Primary schools start back at the beginning of June. As do nurseries,
It will be a phased approach for primary , so each week or two different year groups going back until the end of June.
During June non essential shops start to open.
Secondary schools will likely stay off till sept other than two year groups who will go back in July. However secondaries go back fully if the r stays low
In July they start to open more social venues
By august the country is fully operational again.

It is certainly not about waiting for a vaccine, it’s simply a cautious road map with a plan to pull back, likely geographically in hot spots, if the r starts ri increase.

Keele University tweeted that following Boris Speech they were still not expecting students to return until 2021

Can you post a link to that? All I can see is they posted no change today?

Do you have a link for that @Jenasaurus ? The only Tweet I can see from Keele says they don't expect staff to return to work tomorrow (i.e..today). I haven't heard any uni say they aren't returning until 2021. Most that I'm aware of are working out how to do face to face teaching from the autumn term while observing social distancing.

Unis not going back till 2021 is a real eye opener, if that’s the case. Surely thousands of British students who were planning on going this year, will now defer? Not to mention students from abroad. The Income from foreign students will take several years to recover, I think.

How can the universities survive that loss of income stream? I imagine there will be massive redundancies across that sector.

I know someone who is a student landlord - approximately 50% of his income comes from student tenants. He’s up the creek!

The students are currently refusing to pay for the accommodation that they haven’t used since lockdown.

I especially feel for uni students who are currently in the first two years of their degree, the ones who were supposed to be going this September, and those children who are due to take GCSEs and A-Levels next year.

@Bluntness100 no they don’t. Boris said ‘at the very earliest’ 1st June/1st July. In translation not until well after unless something changes dramatically over the next couple of weeks.

Unless they have inside knowledge, waiting for a vaccine is crazy.

There are positive noises about the Oxford one but they need the virus to be spreading so that some of the trial volunteers catch it before they can check if it works - that is if only people in the control group get infected. Lockdown slows the spread so means that process takes a lot longer, unless they deliberately inject people with the virus. The trials for the original SARS vaccine stopped because the virus had stopped spreading so they couldn’t check whether the vaccine was effective.

The government bought up large stocks of Tamiflu for the NHS during the H1N1 epidemic in 2009 but there were still shortages and reports of people trying to buy up stock privately for themselves or to sell on. I find it hard to believe a new vaccine could be produced in such huge numbers to vaccinate the whole population. Even when it comes to the winter flu vaccine, it is restricted on the NHS to key workers and vulnerable patients or their family carers. I think the government is going back to the herd immunity policy and are just hoping most of us will get it.

Even before Boris’ speech my secondary school was planning for a phased return for year 10-12 only in mid-late June.
We are not expecting to be back as normal in September either and have, after consultation with schools abroad that have reopened, been planning for a 50% timetable with kids in school for a week and then home-learning for a week.
Our Head says that most other local HTs are making similar plans. I thought Boris’ speech was, pretty much, what everybody was expecting. As the person in charge of Sixth Form, I know many of our year 13s were already told, back in March by some unis, that their first Term or more of university was likely to be online.

Only 4% people outside of London and 15% of people inside London have had it - so a long time before herd immunity :(

madame yes that is exactly our experience too. Years 10 and 12 will return, heavily socially distanced. All pupils now 'advised' to have laptops, as this will continue into the autumn and winter. Schools are not going to be reopening fully in September or anything like it.

Most universities now on line, and not returning in September.

dr our children will be celebrating their 90th birthdays before we ever reach herd immunity at this rate.

Even when it comes to the winter flu vaccine, it is restricted on the NHS to key workers and vulnerable patients or their family carers.
That has nothing to do with availability and everything to do with cost. Anyone who wants the flu vaccine can get it, they simply have to pay for it.

And Tamiflu is an anti-viral, not a vaccine. It is disputed whether it is actually any more effective than over the counter medications. A similar antiviral, remdesivir, is being trialled in some places as a treatment regime.

Surely their first strategy of herd immunity will be even harder to achieve with nothing open? If that is the plan. I am rather hoping there is a master plan to roll out the vaccine efficiently. Astro Zeneca have cleared the decks to produce thousands of vaccines, I read and have now dug out the link:

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/new-uk-taskforce-to-help-develop-and-roll-out-coronavirus-vaccine

If they can build a hospital in nine days, it could be possible to fast track a vaccine as vital as this one.

This is also very telling

'The consensus among pandemic experts is that the mass use of a reliable vaccine against coronavirus is likely to be the only way governments around the world can fully ease distancing measures'

Note the 'only way' in that statement.

You may have been expecting big announcements but I could see from the data and the previous statements that the only reason for having an announcement was to try and appease people who wanted a plan.

Did people really think a massive relaxation of restrictions was sensible? Would protect the NHS?

That is not the same as waiting for a vaccine. they are waiting for the number of infections to drop. Which happens when R is below 1. And Drop to a manageable level. They don't put a number on that, it depends on how well we can do test and trace and the trials of that have only really started

Universities are planning for an online year. Even if there is only a small chance of needing to stay online, they need to prepare , unlike this government who is consistently caught short

Only 4% people outside of London and 15% of people inside London have had it - so a long time before herd immunity
That can be proven. We started testing way too late and too selectively; and we have no tests for antibodies in use. So whilst it is not at all likely, technically 100% of the population may have had it but with mild or asymptomatic cases.

Technically that would mean that the virus has mutated in the UK and behaves completely differently to the virus in other countries in that a much lower percentage of people get a bad infection , a tad unlikely.

If the virus is the same, then around 4% of the population infected is likely
For 30,000 dead

So either we are all staying in lockdown indefinitely, which I find hard to believe, or there is a good chance that confidence is increasing that a vaccine will soon be here (but the government are unable to say categorically so they are keeping quiet)

OP I think you need a pep talk.

A lockdown is not feasible beyond some point, which I think is become more obvious in the past week or two.

Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.

I agree more or less with Bluntness. Johnson realises that he has to slowly move things back to normal and I think that will be at something like 80 or 90% by August, just because it has to be.

I think that the biggest problem we face at this moment is that Johnson et al will be intensely focused on maintaining the illusion that the lockdown saved a number of deaths that was proportional to the cost, I fear that all decisions will be reverse-engineered from this fixed requirement.

And note the phrase "fully ease"

Test and trace and the ability to react to local outbreaks will be necessary ...so that's not normal

A lot of things could be almost normal ...provided we get infection numbers down first

attack I don't think anyone considered 'massive relaxation' at all, but some of us are now assessing the autumn and beyond slightly differently.

The R number is important, but the results can be skewed, for instance most infections are now within care homes and hospital settings, and less in the community. Surely it is important to see the detail behind the number. Some rural areas have no infections at all for instance. It is a crude measure, but one that is easily understood I suppose.

Only 4% people outside of London and 15% of people inside London have had it - so a long time before herd immunity where did that statistic come from? They can't know that's true? Is that just based on the numbers tested?

That is a number direct from the horses mouth based on government data - not sure how it can be more exact without, as you say, widespread antibody testing. A person very close to me runs a Covid testing facility outside London and they are seeing 1-2% positives when it is not hospital/care home derived samples. But those are people that can Get to a testing centre. So 4/5% does not seem unreasonable.

OP I think you need a pep talk I don't do pep talks, as I am 45 and cranky as hell this morning, but I do enjoy conversation, so fire away.

Technically that would mean that the virus has mutated in the UK and behaves completely differently to the virus in other countries in that a much lower percentage of people get a bad infection , a tad unlikely.

There is so evidence that it is mutating elsewhere as we head into summer.