Risks to children are vanishingly small? Really?

[GrumpiestOldWoman]

Heard a statistician on BBC this morning explaining the statistics, tiny tiny risk to the under 25's.

Yes, fine, children have negligible risk of dying from covid 19. But I view the risk to my children as including the risk of losing one or both parents, which for many of us is more likely. Look how close the Prime Minister's son came to losing a parent.

Risk of dying - tiny. Risk from losing parent (s) - more significant surely?

Another way of looking at those figures is that they are saying that everyone's risk of dying is doubled for this year, if they contract Covid-19. 600,000 people die in the UK each year. If 60% of the population get Covid, that's 360,000 additional deaths.

360,000 is not an acceptable amount to me, no matter the demographic. An all ages increase of death of 60% over a year is pretty horrendous. Now, you can argue that the two chances are not mutually exclusive, but you can also argue that amongst those who have recovered we may see a reduction in life expectancy and an increase in complications.

Herd immunity through exposure is not an acceptable plan.

Also even if we do think lots of parents are going to die, the best thing there is to ensure there is a broad supportive network of family/friends around, for surviving parents and children. Not these isolated households.

This is quite aside from the fact that any kind of Infection Fatality Rate is absolutely an estimate at this point in time

It's actually not. Several studies have been done looking at various towns to estimate it. It's not a 100% accurate figure but it's pretty close. Not to mention we were able to observe how the virus behaved on cruise ships where there were lots of elderly and everyone was in close quarters and the virus had ideal conditions to spread. Our knowledge of the virus has changed quite a lot these past few weeks.

If there's no vaccine, and we can't contain it, herd immunity may be the safest plan. We can't lockdown forever. People will die from lockdown, in some countries people are near starvation, here: poverty will have effects.

You can argue that life expectancy will shorten when the economy goes to shit too.

There is a huge and scary bit in between mild/moderate and death, which the media and the government does not seem to addressing properly.

We have no bloody idea what we're dealing with yet, not by a long way.

My dc have had it too and although seemingly recovered apart from coughs, are still incredibly wheezy. I'm worried about asthma and also damage to their lungs, but the GP will not see them.

Yes. You only need to look at the lungs thread to see how many people are suffering. Many are parents, including me.

It sounds like you're having the most dreadful time. I'm so sorry. But we know most don't suffer like this and it is similar with flu. There have been years where people have caught it and despite being young and healthy, they've had weeks to months of issues. I know people like that - one friend took 6 months to recover from flu and felt so ill. It's horrible but we can't lockdown the whole of society on the basis some have these horrible experiences. If we all wash our hands and socially distance voluntarily, we can still have an impact on spread.

The risk is tiny, there is no way round it.

I’m getting sick of posting the statistic, but under the age of 65, 3000 people have died. 95 percent of them had significant health issues.

So approx 150 healthy people under the age of 65 have died.

The deaths are overwhelmingly in the elderly or the ill. Someone showed me a link to an excellent spectator article. The doctor who wrote it pointed out the biggest symptom of Covid is no symptoms.

People really need to try to understand or even read the data that is being published. The over whelming majority of people who get this will not even know they have it.

And when you do catch it, it’s about viral load. How much of it you get. S small dose and you’ll be fine.

The risk to children is vanishingly small. As it is to their parents. And often even to their grandparents, depending on age and health.

@nellodee No it doesn't. As a wider population it may potentially be doubled (still very small risk) but that does not relate to individual risk at all.

So no. 'Everyones' risk of dying has not been doubled. Not at all. You need to get better at reading statistics and research or just not post scaremongering nonsense.

I thought the statistician was very good in explaining whether you should be scared and relative risk ..

The data was for 4 weeks until 24th April as that's most up to date from what he sees as best source for deaths overall. So would include children who would have caught just before shutdown.
The risk to school age children is incredibly low. The risk to those over 90 is significant.

So it's very much about limiting spread at school so adults working there don't get and kids don't take it home... Shielding most vulnerable

I agree it's also worth all companies having a plan for how deal with in staff as @simplekindoflife shows people an be knocked really hard that you wouldn't expect... A friend had and its totally floored him...
I also feel we need to move to oxygen given earlier to help patients faster...to avoid this

Simplekindoflife I hope each day is better than the last for you from now on....

Well they are, and at 30 and 35 with no underlying conditions,the risk for DH and I is also low.

Someone explain to me why children’s mental health is being thrown out as a reason for them to return to school and social distance. My kids said that seeing their friends at school but not being able to play with them, hug them or even stand close to them would make them much sadder than staying at home. In our family, social distancing at school would have a greater negative mental health impact than home schooling and being able to kiss and hug your “teacher”

Another way of looking at those figures is that they are saying that everyone's risk of dying is doubled for this year, if they contract Covid-19

What nonsense.

The point of lockdown was too ensure capacity in the NHS. We almost need our second peak now, so that it doesn't happen in flu season. The NHS currently has capacity, so we can loosen a bit.

The point of lockdown was never zero cases of coronavirus.

73 children in NY ill with an inflammatory condition connected to Covid, three have died. This has been noted here too. Many cases may have been missed as there is no respiratory involvement.
I find this really concerning. We know so little about this virus.
news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-three-children-die-from-rare-syndrome-possibly-linked-to-covid-19-11985846

If everyone's chance of dying if they catch covid is equal to their chance of dying over the whole year, then yes, if they catch covid, their chance of dying that year has doubled.

Let's say my chance of dying over the next year is 1%. I catch Covid. My chance of dying from Covid is 1%. If I don't die from it, my chance of dying in the next year is still 1%. Let's say the Covid lasts 1 month.

Over 13 months, my chance of survival is 99% from the Covid, and 99% from normal life.

Chance of survival = 0.99 x 0.99 = 0.9801

Chance of death = 1 - 0.9801 = 0.0199 = 1.99%

So no, it hasn't doubled over a year. But it has risen from 1% in a year to 1.99% over 13 months.

This is hairsplitting, if you ask me.

m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=IbiUE_2Sv0g

An extract from Chris Whitty’s documentary for Gresham College.

Flu season is not for ages yet though

But we know most don't suffer like this and it is similar with flu

We really don’t know that. Because there hasn’t been enough testing in this country, we have absolutely no idea how many people are suffering exactly like @SimpleKindofLife.

Also, Chinese studies are showing “ground glass” effects in the lungs of both symptomatic and asymptomatic Covid carriers (ranging from 77-95% of cases in different studies). They are currently unsure if these patches are able to heal. SARS experience indicates they may not. www.vox.com/2020/5/8/21251899/coronavirus-long-term-effects-symptoms

As to the effect on children, a previous poster linked to the latest reports from NYC. In a nutshell, in just one week 73 children there were found to suffer from the toxic shock/Kawasaki disease syndrome. Andrew Cuomo describes it as “an entirely different chapter” of the disease which was thought not to affect children.
And for those who equate the death of a parent with economic hardship in terms of impact on children: my father grew up poor, and also lost his mother age 9 to cancer. He and his brother never got over it. In his stories of his childhood, having little money barely features. The grief of his mother’s death is always there, and so raw. It stuck with me forever that he thought they had hidden her away in a cupboard, and was begging the other adults to let her out. I don’t want that for my child, ever. No amount of family networks and support can make up for it.

We have had it in our family 'mildy'. DS still struggling with sport (really sporty) 6 weeks on. DH is fine. I can't walk uphill 8 weeks later. I am young and very fit. We are not dead but will we have long term lung damage? Noone can tell us yet!

My kids said that seeing their friends at school but not being able to play with them, hug them or even stand close to them would make them much sadder than staying at home

Many children don't have siblings, or outside space, or caring parents who get up and spend time with them, or safe homes, or any quiet space of their own...home life for many many children at the moment IS impacting their mental health negatively. It's not about hugging friends.

@nellodee Not hairsplitting. You're using 1% as an example. Your chance of dying in the next year is likely to be extremely lower than 1 in a hundred and your chance of dying of COVID extremely lower than 1 in a hundred.

We're actually talking tiny, tiny numbers for the risk of dying of COVID in certain groups. So no, 'everyones' risk of dying in the next year has not been doubled by COVID.

And risk of death from COVID is different depending on age, sex, ethnicity, BMI, underlying conditions etc anyway. It does not apply to 'everyone' in the way you think it does.

It sounds like you're having the most dreadful time. I'm so sorry. But we know most don't suffer like this and it is similar with flu.

@TheAdventuresoftheWishingChair thank you. But we have no idea how 'most' would suffer yet. The ones with this right now are being told to suffer quietly at home. Nobody wants to know about our statistics.

We are on our seventh Lungs thread, filling up with a 1k each time. This is just mumsnet. Check out the Slack app. Hundreds of thousands of us around the world are on it now. All the same chronic severe symptoms.

And it's not just bad flu! I've never wrote goodbye letters to my dc when I had flu. I was literally fighting for every breath. It's horrific. People need to know this.

Thanks @happytoday73. I don't know why they're not intervening sooner with oxygen/checking vitals, etc. It angers and saddens me why people are being told to deal with serious symptoms at home when there is capacity in the hospitals... in the UK?? It beggars belief!

It's not just about the death figures! Which are pretty terrifying no matter how you present the stats. It's the long term health effects this is causing.

I don't know if I will ever recover properly. Every breath hurts, my chest crackles, I'm wheezy. The area around my heart burns when I walk up the stairs. It's fucking scary shit.

But I understand that people can't really understand it unless it happens to them. But I'm sure that will happen, unfortunately, if lockdown is lifted too soon.

The emerging long-term complications of Covid-19

Even at 63, I'm not worried much about my risk of death,
but I am worried about longterm effects that could last for a long chunk of my remaining years.

I'm a lifelong exerciser; it's how I cope in an NT world and I would struggle to cope without this release

Lung scarring, stroke, blood clots, liver damage, Deep Vein Thrombosis & amputation ....
For men, also maybe reduced male fertility

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/8/21251899/coronavirus-long-term-effects-symptoms