Number of infected - UK

[airedailleurs]

Just wondering if it's possible to know with any useful degree of accuracy how many people in the UK have been infected with Covid-19. TIA

No.
In short.
Other countries are now being to do mass testing of some towns to try and build a more accurate prediction of the number of possible infections.
Time will tell when antibody tests are widely rolled out I suppose.

The best guess from Scientists is currently around six million, although I have seen some suggest that half the population could have already have had it, that would be brilliant but I doubt it.
If only 10% if us have been infected then I assume it means it’s not as easily spread as first thought and there is absolutely no need to bleach your shopping, not that I do.

If 32,000 have died
death rate is 0.7%
That means 4.6 million have had it.

If you think the death rates are wildly too low, say you think the real number is 96k died with covid, then that would mean 13.8 million had it.

However, the main people who couldn't socially distance were the frail elderly who had to get daily care. So maybe the death rate is up to 3% (because only key workers & elderly have been getting it). In which case 32k deaths turns into a mere 1 million total cases.

I doubt we’ll ever know real numbers, it’s impossible without testing everyone who becomes ill with a range of symptoms. And even if we did, we wouldn’t really know when it was first here and spreading.

I agree it seems impossible to quantify for so many reasons, do we even have an accurate antibody test yet? (Sorry if we do and I have missed something but it's confusing!)

The ONS is doing a wide scale screening using both antigen and antibody tests. Initial results expected next week so we should then have a much better idea.

OK thanks @Sunshinegirl82. Who are they testing do you know?

Bit more info here:

www.ons.gov.uk/surveys/informationforhouseholdsandindividuals/householdandindividualsurveys/covid19infectionsurveycis

Join zoe
News: the latest COVID estimates
April 28, 2020

Symptomatic COVID cases continue to fall across the UK, with the latest estimates across England, Scotland and Wales coming in at 521,278.

Looking on their website you can see around 1% of the contributors around the country has it. And can watch the changes in colours of the map as the percentages go down.
But i would think only people who think they could have it would download the app so who knows.
Hopefully not 1% of the population currently have it!

I thought the antibody tests were not accurate enough yet

They have a lab antibody test that they are happy is accurate enough to give an indication of who has had COVID but my understanding is that they would not want an individual to rely on the result to assume immunity.

Can we get hold of these tests I wonder? Thanks

The test they are using is called Elisa I believe. I think there are some private clinics offering it. The results of the antibody tests used in the survey will not be released to participants because they are for research only and the test hasn’t been approved by the relevant body yet.