The elephant in the room

[Needsomegoodnews]

So some people are desperate for lockdown to end. Fewer hospital cases. Fewer deaths. These mostly in hospitals and care homes. Mild illness for most etc etc

I’ve been ill now with classic symptoms for SEVEN weeks (otherwise v healthy, slim, active etc). Not tested (so will get flamed that it’s not covid) but HAVE now had a chest X-ray showing ongoing classic infection signs in my lungs. 3 lots of antibiotics haven’t improved things so likely viral and likely covid. I have a fever right now (again - comes and goes). No one has any idea if I’m still infectious or whether I will eventually get better (or worse) and I’ve heard of many others in a similar boat. Without better testing and knowledge of how this virus progresses how on earth can anyone predict the implications of letting it spread again even more?
I have two small children and trying to keep up with a demanding job when I can so I fully appreciate the desire for normality but nothing after lockdown can be normal. I wouldn’t wish how I’ve been feeling on anyone.

And as for your comment about not being able to afford to be in OPs position, that was my point. I can’t afford to be at home indefinitely, not earning a proper wage, not being able to pay my bills and feed my kids. There are less than 2k people in hospital in Scotland with Covid, 89 people in ICU. Doesn’t exactly scream overwhelmed to me. Let the people who are vulnerable shield, let the rest of us go back to work so we’re not sat in poverty while the economy crashes around us.

Erm, it doesn't make all mild cases bedridden for several days. I wasn't bedridden for a single day. I just felt a bit fluey and achey for 36 hours. We have not been tested but DH had classic symptoms, and I also lost my sense of taste and smell. He had a 'mild' case that meant he was very unwell for 2 weeks, and got pleurisy after he thought he was getting better. He also had recurring symptoms like night sweats on and off for a couple of weeks.I had a 'mild' case that I wouldn't have thought twice about at another time. Our young adult sons had no symptoms at all, so either they didn't get it or they were asymptomatic.

SeriouslySoDoneIn If you (and everyone else saying the same thing) don't care who dies why should we care about you. Why should we lift a finger to help. Why would we even be interesting in hearing how you are doing?

@Ontopofthesunset apologies. Imeant to write 'can make'. Didn't mean to speak for all cases!

So it's ok for other people to die as long as you can go to the pub again, is it?

Who's saying they want to go to the pub? People need to work to earn money so they can live, that's not unreasonable.

I'm almost on week 7 too. It fucking sucks. Most of my symptoms are gone now but any exertion and I'm back to coughing up a lung, still wheezy when I'm sleeping and needing to take my inhaler more often than normal. Still getting exhausted a lot more easily too despite the fact I can do more than I was doing. Morning chores leave me needing to nap. I've done some gardening today and cut the grass. It's likely that tonight and tomorrow I will sleeping a lot. It's not all that uncommon to have it this long either from what I've heard.

@LastTrainEast please point to where I’ve said I don’t care who dies?

People are not being tested so there is no evidence

They're in my area.

I'm sorry you feel so awful but your case is exceptional. Most people recover quickly.

What stats do we actually have on that? I have several friends who are on their 5th or 6th week of being very unwell: they are not dead, they are not in hospital- how on earth can we use their situation to estimate how often that happens? Their employers know, evidently, but is that knowledge collected centrally and made available in any way?

The issue is, whilst lockdown has partially worked to lower numbers, it's not been without its issues- it's not really been strongly enforced and many people and many towns you'd be hard pressed to realise there was a lockdown.
There is also the secondary issue at play of the fact we will inevitably hit the biggest economic downturn in 300 plus years, which in itself will indirectly cause poverty, poor health and very possibly death due to poverty and /or homelessness.
Whilst everyone applauds New Zealand, I don't think they should quite yet. We cannot ban inward travel forever, people will want to return home, they will need to import goods, etc.

If anything, lockdown feels like we are holding a tornado off using a flimsy wall. It's always going to knock it down and fly through again

Also, ending lockdown by allowing children back to school is probably the daftest way to do things. Children for the most part don't even know they are carriers. They also don't get distancing.

We also know it doesn't spread as far in the open air so long as we all keep a distance. Schools are indoors for the most part.

As well as this, its said clothes shops will be reopening shortly, again, very much a hive of possible infection due to people touching the goods, using lifts or escalators in bigger stores and queues will no doubt be mad.

There's no suggestion that masks so much to stop it either. That's why the NHS wants visors.

Restaurants and stores opening but not pubs? Why not? I get busy city centre ones, but small village pubs with gardens seems overkill and many are facing never reopening.

Frankly, until if or when a vaccine appears or a definite medication, no amount of damaging lockdown is going to make a difference. And now we know more, such as we do produce antibodies and it's BAME, over 70s, obese and those with underlying issues who are most at risk, and for many it's mild if noticeable, is it time to say enoughs enough?

I get if people are nervous for any reason they should be able to stay put but the further ramifications are going to be mega after this if it carries on for much longer.

We are in a similar boat as you OP, suspect having had it and it has been a rollercoaster since. I am only just starting to feel much better after weeks of this! Had the "classic" symptoms early mid-March and we are now in May. Can't get tested as not ill enough nor a key-worker. We have been abnormally ill though not ill enough for testing or hospital. Feel better then it dips and then back to better. I have been trying to get our hands on a test so we know for sure. This is highly contagious so yes, those of us suspecting we may have had it might have, no one can't say otherwise. We live on a commuter belt with London so not unlikely it has been brought here.

I think I've had it too. But don't want a medal

@Smilethoyourheartisbreaking, sorry you have had it. Have you fully recovered? People react differently, many getting it mildly, as we know those over 60 and especially the most elderly can sadly die from it and those with underlying conditions can even die from it. At the same time there does seem a cohort who are getting post viral symptoms and taking a much longer time to recover.

I am sorry @needsomegoodnews you are still having symptoms 7 weeks on. There definitely does seem a small group who are not recovering in the estimated 2 weeks if you have it ‘mild’.

I would urge you to not push through - not easy when a parent and working - so your body gets the best chance of making a full recovery sooner than later.

Myalgic Encephalomyelitis (ME) can follow a viral infection and as someone who has has had ME now for nearly 22 years, severely for the last 16, I am going to be biased and a little concerned for the few who may end up with something more long lasting. I must make it clear I think it’s highly unlikely you will develop a chronic illness but in an abundance of caution I would urge to not push through. I and many friends with ME so wish there was medical advice at the start of us getting ill to not push through trying to work, exercise etc as we were often urged to do after not recovering after a few weeks. There are some studies that are showing, as many ME patients have shared they wished they had done, that resting in the beginning increases the chance of not becoming ill long term.

There is also post viral fatigue syndrome that can cause a long lasting, year or so, but ultimately self limiting illness. This is known to happen to a few people (am not talking large numbers) after getting influenza or glandular fever.

many people and many towns you'd be hard pressed to realise there was a lockdown.

I’m going to keep calling this bullshit out, every time I see it.

Have you been to many towns? Or are you just blindly repeating this nonsense you’ve read on social media? By and large, it is being followed, and if it wasn’t, the numbers wouldn’t have come down as predicted. Hyperbole like this is unhelpful and utterly pointless. Nobody is going to stay inside more because you keep bleating on that nobody is staying inside. If anything it will make people less likely to stay in.

Sorry you've been feeling rough for so long OP I've heard of quite a few people who are taking a very long time to recover.

we need so much more knowledge of what’s going on - much more than the current testing strategy.

Absolutely this.

I don't understand why everyone has decided lockdown is our only tool.

Lockdown is like a tournique for a severed leg artery. You can't leave it there for too long or the leg will go black and die. You can't just take it off, however slowly, and expect the bleeding to have just stopped on its own. You have to actually mend the leg.

We don't really have a 'testing strategy' we're just doing more tests.

We don't have a contact tracing strategy either, just some noise about an app, incompatible with the rest of the world's apps and with major, unnecessary data protection and privacy issues, that the government seem to think will do the whole job for them. Spoiler: It won't.

Testing and contact tracing give you information. Even if we got both of those things right that's not a strategy it's just information. We need to do something with that information.

Testing tells us who should isolate but our 'isolation' strategy is shit. Stay at home for just 7 days from the start of symptoms with the whole rest of your household. So shower several other people with a heavy viral load for a week then go back to work while highly likely to still be infectious. And don't expect any medical care until you are very seriously unwell.

If we bother doing it properly, contact tracing will tell us who should quarantine but we have no quarantine strategy beyond that strange chart for people in the same household which, like our 'isolation' strategy, is completely inadequate.

Find, test, isolate and treat every case. Trace and quarantine every contact.

That's the strategy.

I don’t think your case is that rare, OP. I know six confirmed cases of it amongst friends and family. One died, two have had symptoms exceeding your seven weeks, one is only two weeks in and still very unwell, one was unwell for 48 hours and still had symptoms for ten days before being ok and one was completely asymptomatic (tested as wife had symptoms).

Hope you feel much better soon. It’s an awful virus.

Find, test, isolate and treat every case. Trace and quarantine every contact.That's the strategy.

So agree @LangClegsinSpace, I am following a few public health experts on twitter and they are all saying the way to get out of this lockdown is to get a really good, test, isolate and quarantine system in place as S Korea did and Germany. The concern is this govt using all their focus these next 3 weeks to achieve this, they already lost a lot of weeks getting testing up end of Feb and March ? Hancock has hired a private company to recruit tracers. Ireland recruited mainly from the civil service who have experience in this.

Newspapers should be reporting much more on how this is where the focus should be.

We can go on with lockdown, keep wrecking the economy and people's livelihoods. Keep destroying our children's future due to luck of education and future job prospects. Throwing many families into poverty. Making people homeless and unable to feed or clothe themselves or their children.
All for what exactly? A virus that- just like flu - that most healthy people will survive.
We have done the necessary and slowed down the spread. We have identified the vulnerable and given help and advice.

Time to build on this and get back to work, build up what is left of the economy starting with the fit and healthy. Which is in all honesty the majority of the population.

Hancock has hired a private company to recruit tracers.

Oh hell. Which company?

Newspapers should be reporting much more on how this is where the focus should be

Devi Sridhar in the guardian is very good on this stuff

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/04/eight-lessons-controlling-coronavirus-east-asian-nations-pandemic-public-health

@LangClegsInSpace, Serco! :( There will be some experienced staff but the majority will come from private companies

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-tests-contact-tracing-serco-g4s-private-firm-a9497371.html

Ps forgot to say I have been following Devi Sridhar and learnt a lot from her.

Oh hell.