Meet the Other Phone. A phone that grows with your child.

Meet the Other Phone.
A phone that grows with your child.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Covid

Mumsnet doesn't verify the qualifications of users. If you have medical concerns, please consult a healthcare professional.

Statistics and BAME

53 replies

MsHeffaPiglet · 07/05/2020 23:14

The death rate is much higher amongst BAME members of this country.

Should this be a consideration when judging how well or bad the UK is doing in comparison to other European countries.

Does the UK have much higher BAME citizens or residents than other countries. Should this be included in the stats along with general population density as awhole and other factors such as a more aged population and the health of individuals?

Could this explain the lower death rates in
Scandinavia, South Korea and Taiwan?

And before anyone accuses me of anything I am BAME person and quite worried about the extra risks of having a bad outcome I and others like me will have.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
7
Pinkyyy · 08/05/2020 20:27

Excuse my ignorance, but what is BAME?

BeforeIPutOnMyMakeup · 08/05/2020 21:42

@Keepdistance if you don't know what is wrong with your post then there is no helping you.

@Pinkyyy while most of the population of the world is non-white, in the UK with it's history of colonialism the government and academia have decided to label people who aren't white and don't fit into their group as "Black Asian and Minority Ethnic"

ShootsFruitAndLeaves · 08/05/2020 23:14

The methodology of a lot of the studies is a bit dodgy. The ONS study adjusts by 'region', which is ludicrous considering that there can be very many deaths in say Luton, and very few in North Norfolk, which are in the same region (East of England).

The IFS study adjusts by coronavirus test count, which is even more ridiculous.

There is also a large systematic bias in that people over, say, 90, are hundreds of times more likely to die of covid-19 or indeed anything else, than people of say, 40, and there are many many thousands of extra deaths not encompassed by official covid-19 death stats in the 70+ age group, which will be disproportionately white, whereas there are no extra deaths at all up to about age 55 or 60, a group which will be disproportionately non-white.

In addition, it seems that old white people are more likely to be in care homes (to which some people trot out tropes about ethnic populations caring more about their elderly populations, which ignores the fact that the white population of the UK is only 5% higher than in 1939, whereas the populations of many developing countries are 10 times higher, hence there are vast numbers of young people to care for the very small number of elderly people in these countries - so ethnic minority populations are structurally much better equipped to care for their own elderly, since their population is a pyramid, whereas the white population of the UK has a baby boom bulge that will continue to outnumber younger generations for quite some time). Only around 30% of the old white people in care homes are being counted in the official death stats as having died from covid-19.

To properly test for ethnicity, you would need to compare on quite a low level, ideally at a Lower Level Super Output Area level, so that white populations are compared with BME Populations living in the same areas.

It's also very much worth noting that the Bangladeshi community is incredibly insular in that 25% live in one borough (Tower Hamlets), whereas the Chinese population is very spread out across the whole country. The Pakistani community is much more insular than the Indian community, which is more insular than the Chinese community.

Some white communities are very insular, but whereas the black and Asian communities are concentrated in major cities, which have airports, public transport, etc. places like Hull, Blackpool, etc., which are very white, clearly lack such links and would be expected to experience covid-19 much, much later than say Birmingham, or inner London. I am not aware of any instances of ethnic minority populations living in large numbers in places which are relatively disconnected (transport etc.) from the rest of Britain in the way that places like Hull or Blackpool might be.

The actual numbers of people being discussed are also small.

In addition, the risk of death from covid-19 is massively overwhelmingly and conclusively linked to age - a 10 year age difference absolutely will increase the risk of death by 3x or more, but it is not proven that a black person and a white person with the same job/background have any difference in risk.

In other words, just because the average black person is poorer than average, it doesn't follow that every black person is poorer than average, and it doesn't really tell you anything personally.

Old people, of whatever race and sex, should worry about covid-19. Young people of whatever race and sex. The gradations within that, whether you are man (higher risk) or or a woman, or whatever else are just noise in this context.

LWJ70 · 09/05/2020 18:00

There have been five blood serum studies on vitamin D3 deficiency and severity of covid 19 patient outcome: USA, Belgium, Indonesia, Philippines and India. At least two of them compared the serum D3 data with previous patient levels.

All studies have shown that nearly all patients with severe outcomes have vitamin D3 deficiency.

All the BAME nations have extremely low death tolls:

UK =465 deaths/million
Nigeria = 0.6
Pakistan =3
India =1
Philipp =6
Vietnam =0
Bangladesh=1

What must be happening to BAME individuals when they walk on British soil? Well if many caucasian are vit D deficient, then the darker skinned will be even more so.

The socioeconomic etc factors will also affect this.
However it is very important to see the multilayered approach that many researchers have flagged vit D3 deficiency.
There is 20 years worth of biomed mechanism evidence.

I've attached a latitude - deaths/million graph which is astonishing.

Here are the studies:
medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.20079376v1 …
medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20075838v1 …
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3585561 …
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3571484 …
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/apt.15777 …
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.20087965v1

Bear in mind, Italy and Spain have the greatest vit D deficiency in Europe.

Oh and something I've just found out.
UK farmers supplement calves with vitamin D to make sure they are not infected with bovine coronavirus.

Statistics and BAME
Statistics and BAME
LWJ70 · 09/05/2020 18:02

I should say that the vit D3 does not stop the infection in the calves, but stops the severe outcomes

BovaryX · 09/05/2020 18:10

Bear in mind, Italy and Spain have the greatest vit D deficiency in Europe

Really? That surprises me. I would imagine Southern Europe would have higher levels of vitamin D than Northern Europe? That's quite counter intuitive.

LWJ70 · 09/05/2020 18:15

The first detailed analysis of vitamin D and BAME on the British media I have heard is a podcast from the BBC World service.

www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3cszl3b

Luckily Professor John Watson (former Deputy Chief Medical Officer for England) is studying this.

Unfortunately, Prof John Watson is not working for Public Health England

BovaryX · 09/05/2020 18:16

With the adjusted figures the other ethnic groups including mixed ethnicity are at the same risk as the white British population

Really? So does that mean there is no increased vulnerability? I mean no increased vulnerability which is not explained by other factors, which are not genetic?

LWJ70 · 09/05/2020 18:30

@BovaryX

mortality is relatively low in Nordic countries—but there vitamin D deficiency is relatively uncommon, probably due to widespread use of supplements.4 Italy and Spain, perhaps surprisingly, have relatively high prevalences of vitamin D deficiency.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/apt.15777

This is the big problem, people jump to conclusions without knowing the facts. This is a multi-layered analysis with quite complex interactions. But the bottom line is, vitamin D is a steroid hormone which is a key factor in the immune system and has been scientifically proved to suppress cytokine storms.

BovaryX · 09/05/2020 18:49

@LWJ70

I have looked at your link. It states that the Southern hemisphere has a lower mortality from Covid than the Northern hemisphere and suggests vitamin D is instrumental. It states that there are outliers, such as Nordic countries and offers as an explanation use of supplements. It states that Spain and Italy have the most vitamin D deficiency, but it does not offer any explanation as to why Why would Spain have a greater vitamin d deficiency than the UK?

Hagisonthehill · 09/05/2020 19:08

It's not necessarily to do with poverty,when you look at NHS Drs that died the bias is evident.
To know why there are differences in the UK you would need to know how many are supplementing as there was a lot if information in the last year or so.
I didn't realise that the over 50s absorb less from the sun.Supplementing is also likely to be picked up by the middle class.zThe BAME community and the older people in the vitamin D push were not identified as more at need because they produce less in a UK summer.

SociallyDistanced2020 · 09/05/2020 19:13

Interesting data on this issue here:

mobile.twitter.com/Laconic_doc/status/1258447431483654144

ShootsFruitAndLeaves · 09/05/2020 19:53

Dear lord what an awful lot of self congratulation

LWJ70 · 10/05/2020 01:41

@BovaryX

but it does not offer any explanation as to why Why would Spain have a greater vitamin d deficiency than the UK?

''One-third (33.9%) of the Spanish population may be at risk for Vitamin D deficiency.''

www.nature.com/articles/ejcn2010265

''People often think that a vitamin D deficiency is only associated with Scandinavian countries, where there are few hours of sunshine, or that it only affects elderly people who rarely leave their homes. However, recently in Spain cases of extremely low levels of vitamin D have been found in elderly people who live in residential homes, children and pregnant women.''

www.surinenglish.com/20160429/othersections/health-beauty/vitamin-deficiency-concern-even-201604291221.html

I've lived in Madrid for a number of years and guess what?
It's cold during the winter months!

Especially in the north, elderly spaniards stay indoors and certainly don't sunbathe on the beach during the winter months.

Spaniards only tend to sunbathe on beaches and in swimming pools from May to August.

Here's the Italy data:

link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s001980050141

'' Isaia et al. reported 25(OH)D circulating levels less than 12 ng/mL (30 nmol/L) in 76% of Italian women over 70 years of age, in late Winter [31].''

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5986426/

By the way < 12 ng/mL is shockingly low

Keepdistance · 10/05/2020 01:58

Well they are slightly darker skinned in spain italy etc. Does tanning affect absorbtion too?

Maybe it's their siestas?? lol
But tbh it could be it's just too hot to sit out there.

Is it worse generally in french/spanish/italy town with no gardens?
in uk people often still want a tan. So younger people sit out. Italian and spanish often have a nicw tan without alk that effort or get a tan very very quickly.
(Wondering if all the air pollution in these areas is blocking some rays??

Keepdistance · 10/05/2020 02:28

Yes they have concluded the areas most polluted are hardest hit but

We found that living in a polluted area plays a significant independent role in vitamin D deficiency and hence, residence can be one of the main reasons of vitamin D status of the women

Plbrookes · 10/05/2020 07:06

@ShootsFruitAndLeaves
The ONS study adjusts for region as you say but also for rural/urban classification (the report doesn't seem to say at what geographical level this is applied) and Index of Multiple Deprivation of LSOA.

ShootsFruitAndLeaves · 10/05/2020 07:41

Yes, I understand all this, however the IMD won't help if you have for example IMD 1 in say all-white Hull and also in say majority non-white Tower Hamlets. It won't tell you that concentrations of ethnic minorities are exclusively in places with good transport links and in/around big cities, whereas deprived whites may be in places like the Welsh valleys, Cornwall, Blackpool, Hull, which obviously have big delays to spread compared to the larger cities

Plbrookes · 10/05/2020 07:46

But the examples you give would be taken into account by the rural urban classification of areas?

ShootsFruitAndLeaves · 10/05/2020 08:05

Blackpool and Hull are both urban.

Plbrookes · 10/05/2020 08:29

Yes, but the rural urban classification is a 6 way classification with 4 types of urban area (I'm assuming ONS is using the standard classification) so Blackpool will be, I'd be willing to bet, classified differently to Tower Hamlets (I can't open the files on Kindle to check this sorry).

Plbrookes · 10/05/2020 09:22

I've got to my PC to look at the files! Blackpool and Kingston upon Hull are both classified as Urban with City and Town. Tower Hamlets is Urban with Major Conurbation. North Norfolk is Mainly Rural while Luton is Urban with City and Town. So I guess the ONS analysis does take account of a difference between types of area within a region.

Using the lookup file at
www.gov.uk/government/statistics/2011-rural-urban-classification-of-local-authority-and-other-higher-level-geographies-for-statistical-purposes

ShootsFruitAndLeaves · 10/05/2020 10:40

Yes, that's true, although in that case clearly Luton is far less isolated than Hull in terms of when wed expect covid-19 to reach it

Plbrookes · 10/05/2020 10:54

Yes, well I suppose that every local authority district is different from every other. That Luton is closer to London than Kingston upon Hull will be partly reflected in the regional variable.

ShootsFruitAndLeaves · 10/05/2020 11:38

Not really. Luton is 'East of England', which is the same as North Norfolk.