So it doesn’t look like the lockdown is going to be extended does it?

[HighlandSpring101]

Just caught the daily news briefing. Despite a lot of people on here last week thinking there’s no way they’ll be easing the lockdown before the end of May (and I admit, I too thought this!) it looks like BoJo may announce relaxations of the lockdown Sunday, possibly taking effect as of Monday?

I am a bit confused though as though the majority of the criteria for relaxation looks like it’s being met, there are still 4000 new infections each day, which is the pretty much the same amount as at the start of this pandemic so surely that’s still too high?

What are Labour saying about all this? I hope Keir is challenging all of this?

I don't think it will be extended by another 3 weeks they want to try and get people back to work so can see slow releases happening
Lockdown isn't going to just end as such anyway as in return to normal . we will just see some phases introduced and if infections go up we will be put back to further restrictions.

Phil Are you in Cornwall, as your username suggests? There's an acute shortage of social housing in some areas but some parts of the country have more availability. Cornwall might be one of those areas that are better resourced for housing.

It does seem like they want to ease it soon. I do hope they're also urgently working on getting us the PPE and treatments.

So next lockdown due in July or August. The Heatwave Lockdown. What fun. Confined to your home in sweltering temperatures. Can't wait.

I'd rather be boiling in my flat than risk losing people I love. Son has a life threatening illness and is severely at risk. Being bored/isolated is not the end of the world.

I just don't understand how they can possibly look at lifting restrictions when there's still so many cases and they haven't sorted out any decent testing capacity. We've all seen the graphs and charts, we know how easily it spreads.

They're walking us into a second wave and they know it too. The cost of sustaining lockdown was always going to reach a tipping point when it made deaths a 'better' option. They could have done so much to minimise the impact of all of this and they just failed at every turn. Thousands and thousands of people have died because of it. Unforgivable.

And if the app is as crap as it sounds (and like every other half baked project of theirs has been) it's likely to be nothing more than yet another expensive waste of time. An expensive waste of time that puts lives at risk. I'm prepared to wait and see how pilot goes, but proper analysis of that would take months in any case. I just wish they were so damn useless. Their policies have always caused harm - and deaths - but now it's literally killing thousands of people.

Maybe one way to protect the over 60s would be to lower the retirement age so people are unable to access their pensions earlier and not feel forced to work in the vulnerable age group. I know this wouldnt suit everyone but it would give more people the choice and those at lower risk could return to work.

sorry that should read able to not unable to access their pensions earlier

I had thought that they'd extend lockdown till end of May.

Now I think they won't. And they'll relax.

I'm not sure how I fell yet.
I still can't get over that that they were so slow in responding: allowing a football match, allowing people to fly into our airports. Promising 100,000 tests and I knew as soon as that was said it was rubbish, and weeks later are we only at 30,000.
And the lack of PPE. And they still don't have the grace and dignity to admit this is a problem.
I'm not impressed.

I know people want to get back to work. And yes we do need to. But I don't rally want my sons going back to school until it's better planned how it's going to happen.

But I'm expecting more governmental blunders and incompetence in this next phase. And that's not good.

So here's what I think...

1. They will extend the current measures with no changes. This will be announced on Thursday. They will not want to announce any changes, no matter how small, before what is forecast to be a nice bank holiday weekend. Despite this announcement, there will be an increase in contact over the weekend as some people decide to take the risk, some mix with neighbours etc.

2. We know that there is more travel, because those shops which voluntarily closed are now starting to re-open (B&Q, McDonalds etc). The government have also told local councils to re-open tips and some workplaces e.g. construction sites have re-opened. They will be watching very carefully to see what impact this has on infections and hospital admissions. There will be an assumption that these infections are generally less serious than the infections pre-lockdown, since the most vulnerable people are shielding at home now.

3. Sunday's announcement will be a plan - they'll set out the order in which things will be lifted but it will be slow and we will all be encouraged to stay home and continue to minimise contact. We may see a recommendation to wear face coverings when making essential journeys. We may see a plan to re-open some non-essential shops using the same measures as supermarkets. I really hope the 'social bubbles' will be introduced over the next week or so, because this is the hardest part for many.

4. I wonder if they will phase out furlough. At the moment, you either work or are furloughed. I wonder if they'll adjust it somehow so that employers can have a month or two of staff working reduced hours and having their wages topped up by furlough. I imagine there are a lot of businesses who need to start getting back to work, but can't get everyone back full time and can't afford to pay full wages while everyone's working part time.

5. Maybe they will announce that the early-May bank holiday will be re-named Key Worker Day to celebrate our Key Workers... or is this a bit too socialist for a Tory government??

I dont think lockdown will be relaxed. But they will change things. People will be expected to go back to work.

People who are saying 'i am not going out until September' or 'i am sheilding and my husband isn't going to work' need to realise that if you can actually achieve that you are privileged.

If you can live and not leave the house for the next few months, thats a privilege. If your husband can refuse to work and lose their job, that a privilege. Or if their employer keeps them on furlough, and you can afford it. Its a privilege.

Furlough may continue into June. But they want far less people using it.

I agree with JustVisiting on her point 4)
Surely the furlough portal can be adjusted. If you can work a bit, the payroll can claim the difference, up to the 80%, just to ease businesses back into things?

Everyone saying we need to start easing seem to be missing a few points.

• we haven't met the five "key markers" set out by the government to allow us to do so.
• we locked down a good two weeks after everyone else, so why should we ease at the same time as them?
• our death rate is still about 400 people a day higher than Spain's and Italy's is at the moment.
• the easing of their lockdowns (allowing people to exercise and go to some shops) is precisely what we've been allowed to do all along. So if we ease ours even further, we're going to be even more relaxed than they are with a much higher rate of deaths.

Why would more people be dying because someone drove 40 miles to a shop instead of using a shop nearby?
Indeed! Utterly ridiculous.
And amazes me how complacent people are about the effects of lockdown. If the economy collapses there is no money for the 'NHS' so your precious little snowflake will die early of something far more dangerous than this.

And amazes me how complacent people are about the effects of lockdown. If the economy collapses there is no money for the 'NHS' so your precious little snowflake will die early of something far more dangerous than this.

But how will the economy fare if millions of people die?

It’s likely that without available care a lot of younger people would die, especially fat office workers and smokers etc.

I don't think people are complacent about the effects - they just think it's far too soon.

Everyone else who has locked down has done so for longer and on much stricter terms than us. Spain and Italy's eased measures look a lot like our "full lockdown" does. So why would we want to leap ahead of them when our death rate is still so high?

Our lockdown really hasn't been so bad. You can still work unless you're in an industry that's been forced to close. You can go outside everyday to exercise with your family. You can even meet friends if you maintain social distancing. You can go to the shop, the post office, the bank. You can do that everyday too. You can even go to the off license, the DIY shop and pick up a takeaway coffee or lunch.

Nowhere else in Europe has had such a relaxed lockdown as us!

Yes indeed. If the economy collapses we'd all suffer terribly. Hence the need to reduce the spread of the highly contagious deadly disease.

What do you think happens to the economy if large numbers of the workforce are all off sick for extended periods? Or dead.

Who gets people to workplaces if transport workers are off sick or dead? Who cares for patients if HCP are off sick or dead?

How do we have a healthy recovering economy when we have the endless disruption of wave after wave of widespread infection (and deaths) - and stop, start, stop start lockdowns?

I'm with you on the amazement over people's complacency. We have one of the highest numbers of deaths in the world and one of the highest death rates in the world. Our doctors and nurses are disproportionately included amongst the dead. And nothing much is being done to mitigate that nor the economic damage resulting from all the sickness and death

We live in a global interconnected world. We can see how other countries are handling the pandemic. Many are starting to ease their lockdowns. Their easing takes them to where we already are. Because they had much stricter lockdowns in the first place. So when people hear whine about Spain or France easing their lockdowns saying why don't we do it too. Well we already are.

Other countries are giving earlier treatment. When there's more chance of survival.

Why is there so much complacency about this?

Why didn't the government spend the past month that we've been in lockdown obtaining more PPE, drugs, and accurate tests?

I think they need to, and there needs to be more analysis on this.

3000 deaths have occured in people under the age of 65. Many, many of them with underlying conditions, often chronic. Every other death is over this age, so there needs to be questions asked on why the working population with no known underlying conditions is not being released and the retired, or shielded on lock down.

Questions need to be answered on the true fatality rate of this disease, and by age group. Statistics would show it is on the region of 0.02 per cent if you’re 64 or younger. Even less if you’ve no underlying conditions. Even less if you’re female.

Something is very wrong some where. You cannot lock your working population down, stop kids from schooling to protect the over 65s and the Ill. You can protect the over 65s and the ill other ways.

They need to start being transparent on the actual death rate for healthy people by age range.

I think a lot of the problem is that when the PM said they were planning the second phase (coming out of lockdown) people assumed that it would be announced and implemented on the same day. But they never said that at all. They made clear that there would be a road map of possible exit plans which they would implement when the time was right. All this would be put into action gradually and only when the 5 key targets had been reached. We were told that Boris would share their exit plan - their slow, gradual easing of restrictions, and he will do this on Sunday. But, this isn't going to happen until and unless those 5 tests are met. They've said this all along.

So lots of people, incorrectly, latched onto the idea that after this three weeks lockdown is reviewed (tomorrow) we will immediately jump into the new exit plan.

But the exit plan is still being worked on. The 5 key tests are not met, although JVT was optimistic about the first two. We have weeks to go to see the numbers really decline. We have weeks to go to see if the track and trace is effective - it won't even be rolled out nationwide for a couple more weeks. And as for PPE - it will take weeks if not months for stocks to be sufficient for all NHS/care settings, all doctors surgeries to have enough to see them through the coming months. Additionally PPE will be required for office staff/schools/any where that cannot maintain social distancing.

So, I still think that tomorrow the current lockdown will continue for a further 3 weeks. The exit plan (which will take months to fully implement) will be outlined on Sunday with the proviso that it will happen only if all the 3 tests have been met at the end of the month. And I think it will be made clear that if the R number increases, if people bend the new restrictions, we'll go back a stage.

Basing this on what was actually said by the government and scientists, and not what was interpreted in the media.

We all want normal, but thinking that we will soon be back to it is naive.

They need to start being transparent on the actual death rate for healthy people by age range.

But surely the current death rate isn’t a reflection of what it would be if the 10% of cases needing hospitalisation suddenly can’t be treated due to lack of medical resources, which is the main reason we’re all on lockdown in the first place.

I get that people are sick of being in lockdown but this doesn’t change the hard reality of the situation.

Bluntness We'd need to know how many under 65s required hospital treatment too. If we ease lockdown early whilst infection rates are still high there will be a lot more of all ages needing medical care.

We only have capacity now because many simply aren't being treated or treated too late. Hence us having one of the highest death rates and numbers of deaths in the world.

We certainly don't have capacity for a second wave. Which strongly suggests the death figures for younger people would increase.

People do realise over 60s comprise a fairly large percentage of the workforce? Including many doctors and nurses.

Talking of doctors and nurses. That's where a lot of the younger deaths are coming from. You won't have anyone to care for any health if they're dead or off sick for long periods.

Oh and why the focus solely on the deaths?

We won't have any return to normality or any hope of a recovering economy with large numbers off sick from work for long periods from work - including doctors, nurses, teachers, transport workers, etc.

We also don't yet know about potential long-term effects.

It's a Russian roulette ending lockdown early. Dangerous gamble with both lives and the economy.

We all want an end to lockdown. Some of us would rather that was done safely and not at all costs. Why not spend the next three weeks doing what should have been done one or two months ago? Taking the measures that would make it possible. Get hold of more PPE, accurate tests, drugs and equipment to treat patients (with the aim to treat early). Then perhaps in three weeks time we might be ready to ease lockdown safely.

Mid March - our school. A week before lockdown. A high proportion of our staff were off either ill or self isolating. We struggled to get supply staff in and TAs were stepping up to do class cover. And we had a lot of TAs off too. A school near us closed due to staff shortages.

This will happen again about a month after schools go back, if they go back too soon.

Regardless of whether kids pass it on and how much, a lot of our staff were ill with symptoms before lockdown. Before the peak, when the R number was creeping up.

Unless the R rate is much lower than it was then, and it remains that way for some time, we go back to this.

It needs to be relaxed , I'm not talking about full capacity everyone back to normal just more people back to work , non essential shops etc . I was watching bbc news this morning all these people that can't see a dentist and are in pain .
Obviously the elderly and vulnerable stay isolated but the rest we should be able to mix in small circles.
We need to get the country back to normal slowly nothing drastic just small changes .

It's all very well saying extended lockdown another 2 weeks and so on it's never ending, we need to manage it now not stay locked away .
They have already said that they can't manage furloughed any longer than said so encourage businesses to get back to normal but with wfh and social distancing. The government needs to support businesses now to open . So instead of everyone furloughed just a small percentage until back to full capacity.