Likely hood of dying as 21 year old

[summerrain34]

I have no underlying health conditions would I die from covid 19 !

You're probably more likely to win the Euromillions tonight.

You're more likely to choke on a piece of food and die, than to catch covid and die.

Enjoy your breakfast and try not to worry too much.

You are incredibly low risk. I'm 29 and I'm also incredibly low risk. 92% of deaths have been in the over 60s.

Following as someone with severe health anxiety. Thank you for this thread!

Very unlikely. There's lots of information available helping you quantify the risk. If you like quantitative risk assessment look up an online calculator giving your risk of death of other causes in the next year.

Incredibly low risk. Try not to worry.

@480Widdio I know what you’re saying, but what is to say that @MummyFriend anecdote wasn’t in the 0.003% (or whatever figure)? Unlikely for sure, and not what the OP wants to hear, but we can’t live in a candy floss bubble!

"you can’t calculate a death rate like that as all of the 12 million females you were referring to haven’t had the virus."

I was including the likelihood of catching the virus, which is v small,
so we need to look at the whole female population in that age group

That 90 in 12 million gives an idea of the numbers of what has happened in the past,
which is fine to give the OP a rough idea of the tiny tiny risk she has

If you want an exact figure, then that is complicated and requires digging into a lot of data, some of which is fuzzy anyway if we are calculating for a 21-year-old
AND requires predicting what will happen in the future after lockdown

Classic statistics and science too:
don't go into a level of detail when your data is inadequate for that

If you go onto the ONS website you will be able to find information of what the likelyhood of a 21 year old female with no health conditions dying in any month are. Without looking at 21 I would say RTA is probably the highest followed by various cancers. This will help put it into perspective a bit.

More chance of dying in an accident at that age

If you want to know the risk assuming you are unlucky enough to actually catch COVID

then a useful perspective is from Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, Uni Cambridge:

the risk of^ dying from^ coronavirus each year is similar to the risk - at your individual age - of dying from all other causes

which at age 21 is still v tiny

This graph uses a log scale instead of a linear one, because on a linear scale the risk for the young ages would be so small it would be difficult to see

@BigChocFrenzy can you help me. What are my chances. I have symptoms and I'm scared. Mid 40s asthma and smoker. High blood pressure

You cant ask for likelyhood, we have no idea why those who are young have died. It is a complete lottery. It doesnt matter if its one in 500 thousand if you are that one. Just do all you can to avoid getting or apssing it

@oldbagface it’s impossible to give a personalised risk factor. But using the graph above a 40 year old has a 0.1% chance of dying. Even a 60 year old only has a 1% chance of dying so I wouldn’t be too worried.

You can get anything in life so you just need to appreciate the here and now.

So with that in mind, you just need to follow the guidance.

Your chance of dying from it is very very low.