Are we through the worst of it?

[Vandelion]

I purposefully avoid the news because the frightening headlines are just too much.

I do know we have reached the peak so does that mean things are likely to get better from now on in terms of new infections and less deaths?

A virus that kills its host struggles to spread very widely. One of the reasons coronavirus has been able to spread so efficiently is that a large proportion of people who have it have no symptoms or feel only very slightly under the weather. They therefore go about their business spreading the virus around.

If everyone who catches a virus becomes very unwell and/or dies they won’t be going about their business and spreading the virus very far at all. If a virus can’t spread it will die out.

Ah that makes perfect sense, thank you sunshine.

That has prompted me to think of Ebola, extremely dangerous with a high fatality rate yet very uncommon in the UK. Thankfully.

I think we'll have a better grip on testing so an earlier warning sign of when r0 is increasing..

Someone made a comment referring to Spanish flu about how a second wave is likely to be worse. I can't see this as we have 100 years more knowledge, technology and ability to inform the general public of the best ways to avoid spreading it. We also will be gaining knowledge about best practise for treating it, egg early oxygen vs later more invasive treatment.

However, I would like to see a plan for moving forward from the government in a controlled way and it's making me feel anxious that we don't have this. I also feel like they're running around like a headless chicken wrt testing and trying to get to this 100,000 per day target. It's an impressive number, but is it targeting the right people and telling us what we need to know wet community spread.
Also, do we need to revisit things like 7 day quarantine for those who've had it. People test positive for a lot longer, but that doesn't mean they she'd enough of the virus for someone to catch it. Still so many questions, but I think we should be erring on the side of caution with this one.

On a personal level, I'm making sure that our vitamin d status is as good as it can be, as this is one of the ways to lower our own risk factors.

I agree with @Thisdressneedspockets we can't really compare our second wave with the Spanish flu of 1918 second wave as there were many other things at play. I hope that we will have gathered enough expertise to manage the second wave efficiently and keep the death toll as low as possible.

The figures are set to go sky high again now but that's because they're including care homes (which they haven't up to now) and increasing testing massively.

I've also been upping my vit D intake and encouraged DH to do the same. I've put the DC back on vitamin drops (aged 1 year and 2 year)

Something that has encouraged me is hearing Italy are preparing to loosen their lockdown, given how terribly they were hit I feel this is a really positive thing and gives me hope that things will slowly return to normal for us too.

The second wave of Spanish flu mutated to a more deadly form, that's what people mean.
We're going to all/most of us be exposed to it at some time or another unless a vaccine comes along. It's the form we are exposed to that people mean when they talk about Spanish flu. There's nothing to say it will follow the same pattern though.

There isn't and my fingers are firmly crossed that the second wave will be controllable and take advantage of what we have already learnt. I'm no scientist but I believe it's more common for viruses to become milder when they mutate rather than more severe so I'm clinging on to that!!

No it is not more common for them to become milder. Some do, but not more common.

The second wave of Spanish flu mutated to a more deadly form, that's what people mean.

Spanish flu was unusual because of the unusual circumstances. Usually the people who are most ill stay in one place (home/hospital etc) and the people who are more mildly affected are out and about infecting others. When that wave of flu hit soldiers in the trenches, it was the other way round: the more mildly affected stayed where they were in the trenches, and the iller people got shipped on crowded trains to field hospitals and infect more people. So there was a pressure favouring more severe strains when it's usually the other way round.