If a second wave is inevitable could we get it out of the way now.....

[Mallowmarshmallow]

It seems a second wave is fairly inevitable....scientifically, is it an option to get it over and done with now the hospitals seem to be under less pressure....?

(I realise this might be a totally stupid question...)

If the NHS is “coping fine” why is cancer surgery being cancelled?

Or doesn’t that matter because you’re not affected?

@LemonsNVod a small study found 100% of patients admitted for surgery were infected with Covid. This is something trusts need to consider. That's a virus issue not an nhs capacity issue though

Elephant you need to understand the
e x p o n e n t I a l g r o w t h!! The NHS is 'coping' because the transmission has been slowed through social distancing/lock down. What parts of these measures has been most crucial is uncertain but it has worked/is working.

It's coping so well my MS appointment has been cancelled until next year.

Yep. The quicker we get it over the quicker routine appointments will resume. So lockdown is dragging this out!

@mrshoho we expect an exponential growth with any pandemic has this one surprised you?

Are these the same hospitals that we had an uproar about with people going to their 2nd homes?? You can't have it both ways, they either needed to be ready for an influx or they didn't

it's you who is acting surprised! You're the one saying you think the social distancing lock down shouldn't have been out in place!

@elephantsumbrellas name your source.

They’re not even telling cancer patients we can have surgery if we self isolate for 14 days beforehand. We just flat aren’t getting it. And by “we” I mean more than myself. I’ll let others chime in themselves if they’re personally affected.

COVID in the UK last year ?
No sign of it in the ONS (Office of National Statistics) figures

Deaths in the UK 2020 on a week by week basis were below the normal for the last few years
.... and then we see the sharp jump when the COVID deaths started

A study found all patients who were admitted for surgery were infected with CV with I think 20% mortality. Only a small study though. My scientist husband informed me of it.

@BigChocFrenzy agree no way did we have Covid last year. Totally different presentations we are seeing since March

No sign of it in the ONS (Office of National Statistics) figures

Being in the uk doesn’t mean it was rampant enough to cause a spike in death numbers.

In fact as there is an over lap of people dying with it, v because of it, Ie patients who would have died this year, it will be interesting to see just how much of a spike this actually year has when we get towards year end.

Sweden’s approach is interesting. They are not doing nothing. They are doing lots of social distancing but in a way that will be sustainable for a long time and that the public will buy in to. Rather than lockdown and people get sick of and rebel. The Deputy PM was on the news and was explaining it.

Elephants do you mean became infected in hospital while there for surgery? Or arrived infected?

We're going to need to do something different. Not lift lockdown, but do it differently.
Stopping gatherings of above ten people,
changing how we use public transport...
the graphics on controlling contagion are really interesting. You don't need to keep everyone in to hugely impact the spread.

Became infected during their admission. I'll try and dig out the link tomorrow

The only reason the nhs has capacity is because we are doing literally nothing except covid care. No electives, no treatment, no therapy. The lockdown reduces footfall as well - less accidents, RTAs, slips and trips plus the extreme panic everyone has about not stepping a foot into the hospital for fear of catching covid.

Not sustainable.

If you want to be treated for anything other than covid over the next 18 months, there can't be a second wave as there won't be capacity once the nhs opens up again.

@infernotowering agree to an extent. But whatever the strategy this virus isn't disappearing in next 18 months. what would be your solution?

As far as I'm aware most services making plans to return to business as usual in next few weeks. Surgical and cancer services will be more effected due to risk of infection though.

The second peak is no more inevitable than the first was. With proper measures in place we can keep the numbers low for an incredibly long time, possibly indefinitely.

Exactly. It does however mean , testing and , isolating, constantly and tirelessly along with some (much less restrictive than lockdown) physical distancing measures. This would need to happen until we either have an effective treatment, a vaccine or until it burns itself out (herd Immunity). It is not impossible though

Scientifically, a second wave is inevitable. It'll start to be seen in all countries as lockdowns are relaxed. But the height of the peak can be influenced by policy. Just lift lockdown completely now and the second peak will be significantly worse than the first and overwhelm the NHS. The idea is to flatten the second peak by lifting some measures but not others - "getting it over with" is just herd immunity by another name.

The problem is that scientists are modeling based on a small amount of poor-quality data. The reporting is inconsistent and often inaccurate, plus countries keep on redefining what they're measuring. This means that the error in the models is absolutely enormous, and that the forecasts can change daily as new figures come in. Plus one of the key parameters is the proportion of the population which is susceptible - completely unknown since we have no idea how common asymptomatic carriers are, or how immune people are once they've had it.

The aim is to have small second/third/fourth waves that the health system can cope with until there's a vaccine. Lift too much too soon and we're back into exponential growth and the strict lockdown reinforced. Lift too little and there are unnecessary deaths from non-COVID illnesses plus the economic cost. And governments have to make these decisions based on coarse-grained basic models because there simply isn't enough data to do anything more sophisticated.

And for it to work the number of new daily cases needs to be in the hundreds rather than the thousands it currently is so that the testing, isolating and tracing will be manageable. Relaxing too soon and we could be just be back to square one again.

To all the people who think the NHS is coping, my SIL is currently redeployed on ITU, she's a dentist.

So to be fair all the people who are stretching the regulations are perhaps helping us flatten the second curve a bit?!

No. The opposite