I'm exasperated. Lockdown IS working. But the media reporting of daily deaths is making people think it's not

[Namechanger20183110]

I don't even know why I'm posting this, but I'm just frustrated. People are flouting lockdown with the excuse that 800 odd people are still dying a day so if it's not working then what's the point.

But it IS working. The NHS England data for daily deaths reported and updated every day is showing the peak was on the 8th and that daily death numbers as in actual deaths in the previous 24 hours, is coming down. I think it's only 150 odd or so for yesterday (which will change I know but nowhere near to the 800 level)

Why are the media not reporting these figures? Why are gov.uk insisting on continuing with this daily death report that includes all of the previous days/weeks/months deaths knowing full well that this figure is used in headlines to get attention and is being wrongly interpreted by people? Why in the daily briefings are the speakers not being clearer about this? Yes the death figures aren't important and it is the rate of infection we need to look at, but deaths are all what Joe Public seem to be focused on, so tell them that it IS coming down!

Am I alone in this exasperation??

I don't think as many people think lockdown isn't working as some trolls posters on MN would have you believe.

Clearly, without lockdown, we'd have mortality rates into 6 figures by now.

People would still flout lockdown rules if they knew the numbers were coming down because they'd say oh, the deaths are decreasing so we're safe to go back out.

It's been 5 weeks. People are fed up. It was inevitable that people would start flouting the rules either way.

Yes, for example some (around 70?) of the deaths announced today occurred last month.

Hospital ICU admissions are declining, which shows that measures are working.

Where are you getting your info? BBC says 803 deaths most recent and that presumably is only the ones in hosps.

Looking at the graph on Worldometer the death rate is somewhere around 750 from a peak nearer 1000.

But if we hadn't had the lockdown the deaths would have continued to rise exponentially to a much larger figure. The lockdown has succeeded in quenching that growth, which was the primary objective.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

People dont trust the government figures, we know they are being fudged with deaths outside hospital so people are thinking why bother

This is just human nature. We acclimatise to risk fairly quickly. I don't think many people are saying they don't think lockdown is working?

People dont trust the government figures, we know they are being fudged with deaths outside hospital so people are thinking why bother

if people are aware that the figures are actually higher I'd have thought that would make anyone with half a brain more compliant rather than less.

Because it is easier to make shit news than it is to do some real journalism at the moment.

More fun to ask the same questions, refuse to accept any answer and to misinterpret the data... or to simply not understand it.

It is shit. It will be shit for a long time yet. We currently have no idea how our infection and/or death rates really compare to other countries, we wont for a long time yet.

We can, as individuals, only cope as best we can...

Because all they do is lie, along with being clueless? They also like it that some people are too terrified to leave their houses. Terrible isn’t it

@BeetrootRocks

This is my point

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Then look at Covid all deaths 25th April data. 343 on the 23rd, 105 yesterday (but will change)

How are deaths outside hospital being 'fudged'?

Or is that just a comment that ignores the longer term data analysis of the ONS?

I think the speakers in the daily briefing are being very clear that, when taken together, there is clear evidence that lockdown is working.

New infections are flattish even though we are testing more people, hospital admissions are down, people in ITU beds are down. They've repeated many times that deaths lag behind infections, AND that if we hadn't taken the measures we have, the death rate would still be rapidly increasing.

Plus, I guarantee that if they didn't publish the daily death figures, they would be accused of covering up.

I don’t think people are flouting lockdown because of the daily death figures. I think it’s more all the talk of “how do we come out of lock down?” And “the schools are going back May 11th” or whatever. I think people believe the next lockdown review will relax most of the restrictions so they think “oh well, it can’t harm anyone if I go and meet my cycling friends today, lockdown is about to be suspended.”

Are people flouting the rules? There were a lot more people out and about when I went out today but I didn't see anyone flouting the rules.

Ok, technically I did. Two people with their bikes sat on the grass by our local canal. They weren't there when I came back though so they may have only sat down for 5 minutes or so.

@buttermilkwaffles what is the source of your graph

If people are aware that the figures are actually higher I'd have thought that would make anyone with half a brain more compliant rather than less.

It’s the ‘half a brain’ bit that’s the problem....

People are flouting rules because they think this is all over. They’ve heard we’re over the peak and think now they can relax.

I was confused about figures. You’ve cleared that up for me. But I think keeping figures high will help keep people vigilant for longer.

I absolutely agree with you namechanger and have been saying so to my DH for some days. The reporting of the death rate seems to make no sense, so much of it is historical, and doesn't appear to be helping anyone. There also appears to be a lack of critical thinking in this area too.

How are deaths outside hospital being 'fudged'?

Sorry my post should of been longer.
I work in a shop, when you look at the front page of the Papers on display all Last week we were seeing ‘government hiding thousands if deaths’ ’wear masks or die’ ect

People reading that were then commenting that they are suspicious now and disheartened and really don't know what yo do.

Certainly if we go on my stores numbers more are coming in last week saying ‘well they said we will all get it now so why stay in?’ Most are desperate to go back towork as money's ran out
footfalls gone up so much last week that the bosses are fazing out lock down hours from Monday from 8-6 to 7-7 then in another week back told hours of 6-9

Ive no choice but to be there but if i had the option id be in my house waiting it out but hey ho.

More of that shite journalism then!

They know better. The role of the ONS has been explained, death certificates in the community have been explained, the time lag has been explained but no.... Look What THEY Are Hiding is a better headline!

I dont think people are flouting lockdown because they think its not working. In fact I think its the exact opposite. Plus i havent actually seen anyone flout it, just more people out and about

We've heard a lot in the last few days about schools going back, which shops will open first, B&Q opening, how the government is going to lift lockdown etc. It seems like the end is nigh and so people are thinking its over. Death rates going down. I think a lot of people believed the '3 weeks of lockdown and it will all be over'

Plus people are bored. Theyve been cooped up inside for 5 weeks, theyve been following the rules and no one they know has caught it. At this point its natural to start testing the boundaries, pushing it slightly to see if anyone gets it, then push some more. Its completey natural to test risk, its like climbing a tree and getting higher each time, getting closer to the cliff edge etc.

If admission practices have changed over this period because of the real or perceived capacity of the NHS, that will also affect the deaths in hospital trend. I'm guessing almost no one over 80 goes to hospital with this, was that the case two weeks ago?